Justin Joly: 2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Justin Joly doesn't look like a dynasty sleeper on the surface — he's a tight end from NC State who transferred from UConn, never quite cracked the headlines, and put up a modest 489 receiving yards in his final college season. But strip away the raw counting stats and what you find is one of the most compelling receiving profiles in the 2026 TE class: 82 PFF receiving grade, 7 touchdowns, and a body-control highlight reel that earned him PFF's #4 tight end ranking nationally. At 6'3" and 250 pounds, Joly is built for the modern NFL — a move tight end who threatens linebackers in space, wins at the catch point in traffic, and left NC State with 166 career catches, 1,978 yards, and 15 touchdowns across four seasons at two programs.

The transfer arc matters here. Joly spent two years at UConn in the American Athletic Conference before taking his talents to NC State and putting up legitimate production in the ACC — against Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, and Pitt. That Power 4 validation removed the Group of Five discount, and his 10.1 ADOT in 2024 confirmed he wasn't being used as a check-down safety valve. He was being asked to threaten the intermediate-to-deep middle of the field, and he delivered. The question entering the draft isn't whether Joly can play in the NFL — it's whether he lands in an offense that wants to use him the way he's best suited.

STRENGTHS

Joly's hands and body control are his calling card. The 2025 film is littered with contested catches that lesser tight ends simply don't make — a full-horizontal dive against Duke with arms fully extended, body parallel to the ground, contesting a ball in space at 250 pounds; a red-zone fade against Pitt where he tracked the ball over his shoulder and secured it through contact; sideline toe-tap grabs that required elite spatial awareness. His 82 PFF receiving grade in 2025 isn't a fluke — it reflects a receiver who simply doesn't drop footballs, posting zero notable drops across the film reviewed. Coaches trust him in the red zone, and his 7 touchdown season proves it.

His athleticism and after-the-catch ability add another dimension. For a 250-pound tight end, Joly moves with a fluidity that gives defensive coordinators genuine nightmares in space. Open-field footage from the Pitt and Wake Forest games shows him turning short receptions into chunk plays — running through arm tackles, driving forward through contact, and leaving defenders on the ground behind him. He's not an elusiveness artist, but he's a momentum runner who punishes defensive backs who can't deliver clean hits. His route running rounds out the package: clean stems, good footwork at the break, and enough nuance in his head-and-shoulder fakes to consistently find soft spots in zone coverage. His 10.1 ADOT in 2024 confirms he's operating as an intermediate-to-vertical threat, not a dump-off artist.

His alignment versatility gives NFL coordinators genuine flexibility. NC State deployed Joly in-line as a Y, as an H-back wing, and split wide in the slot — all in the same offense. That multi-alignment profile is increasingly valuable in 12-personnel spread sets, and it's the kind of trait that earns a young tight end extra snaps while he develops in other areas.

CONCERNS

The blocking tape is the honest limitation, and it's been consistent across four college seasons. Joly's PFF blocking grades never cracked 70 — career range of 54 to 66 — and the film confirms why. He's a willing blocker who doesn't quit, but his pad level rises quickly after initial contact, he loses gap integrity against athletic edge defenders, and he doesn't generate the sustained drive-block movement that teams running power concepts want from an inline TE. At 250 pounds he can get overpowered by NFL defensive ends, and teams asking him to anchor at the point of attack for 50+ snaps a game will be disappointed. His best blocking contributions will come in zone-run schemes — reach blocks, crack-backs, and chips before releasing into routes — not as a true in-line blocker in heavy run packages.

The 2025 yardage decline also warrants a flag. His touchdown total jumped from 4 to 7, but receiving yards dropped from 661 to 489 — a pattern that suggests NC State began deploying him more as a short-area red-zone piece and less as the intermediate weapon that makes him dynasty-relevant. His top-end speed likely caps somewhere in the 4.65–4.72 range, meaning he won't consistently win against tight man coverage on vertical routes. And his press release against elite athletes remains largely untested on film — NFL cornerbacks and linebackers who jam tight ends at the line could disrupt his timing in ways that didn't appear in the ACC.

SCOUT GRADES

Scout 1 assigns Joly an overall grade of 72/100 with a projected selection range of Round 3, picks 70–90. The report grades him B+ in route running, hands, and scheme fit as a move/F-TE, B in athleticism and YAC, and C+ in blocking — a grade that the scout emphasizes is the primary ceiling-capper. The comp package lands on Tyler Higbee circa Year 2–3 as the primary, with Cole Kmet entry-level as the secondary — both players who entered the league with similar receiving pedigrees and similar blocking development timelines.

Scout 2 aligns on the pick range (Round 3, picks 70–90) with a slightly higher overall grade of 78/100. Using a 10-point trait scale, the second evaluation gives Joly 9/10 on hands and catching — the highest mark of any trait — followed by 8/10 on size, route running, and YAC/physicality, 7/10 on athleticism, and 6/10 on blocking. The comp range here skews higher: a floor of Dallas Goedert-lite and a ceiling of Evan Engram 2.0. Both scouts land in the same draft window, both flag the identical blocking concern as the primary risk, and both project him as a plug-and-play receiving weapon in the right offensive environment.

PROJECTION

For dynasty purposes, Justin Joly is a stash with legitimate upside who is almost entirely landing-spot dependent. If he falls to a team running 12-personnel spread concepts — think offensive coordinators who deploy the tight end as a mismatched weapon against slower linebackers, not as a run-blocking pillar — he has the receiving profile to produce meaningful numbers within his first two seasons. Year 1 looks like a limited role while he learns the system, with 30–45 catches in a shared TE room. Year 2 is where the ceiling becomes visible: if a coaching staff commits to him as a featured piece of the passing game, a 600-yard, 6-touchdown season is a realistic floor based on what he showed in college.

The dynasty floor is a rotational TE2 who contributes in 12-personnel passing sets and scores touchdowns in red-zone packages — meaningful but not a week-to-week starter in most formats. The ceiling is a legitimate TE1 in a pass-first system, somewhere in the Kmet/Goedert range as a consistent 65–80 catch, 700–900 yard producer once he establishes himself. Avoid investing heavily if he lands in a run-heavy scheme or behind an entrenched starter who commands 80%+ of the snaps. Buy the range: if he's available in the third round of rookie drafts, the value is right. If offensive context develops favorably in his second year, that's when the real dynasty payoff arrives.

View Justin Joly's full player profile, measurables, and scouting breakdown →

🎬 All-22 Film Analysis Update

*Updated after All-22 film review by Scout1 and Scout2.*

Scout1 Assessment Justin Joly is a move tight end built for modern NFL offenses — a 6'3", 250-pound receiving weapon who transferred from UConn to NC State and progressively earned recognition as one of the top tight ends in college football, landing at #4 on PFF's national TE rankings. His 2025 season (78 PFF overall, 82 receiving grade, 7 TDs) showed meaningful growth as a red-zone and intermediate-area threat with legitimate athleticism and excellent body control. The case against him is straightforward: his b...

Scout2 Assessment Joly's a plug-and-play receiving TE who'll post 600/6 rookie year in right spot, but don't sleep on the blocking red flags tanking his stock—smart teams grab him R3, dreamers reach R2.

*Film analysis is based on All-22 footage reviewed independently by two scouts. Scores reflect on-field evidence and may differ from pre-film model projections.*