Justin Joly — Scouting Report

TE | NC State | 2026 NFL Draft

The Short Version

Justin Joly is a move tight end built for modern NFL offenses — a 6'3", 250-pound receiving weapon who transferred from UConn to NC State and progressively earned recognition as one of the top tight ends in college football, landing at #4 on PFF's national TE rankings. His 2025 season (78 PFF overall, 82 receiving grade, 7 TDs) showed meaningful growth as a red-zone and intermediate-area threat with legitimate athleticism and excellent body control. The case against him is straightforward: his blocking grades have never cracked 70 across four college seasons (career range: 54–66), his weight class is workable but not imposing at the NFL level, and he spent his first two seasons at UConn against Group of Five competition. The case for him is that he put up real numbers in the ACC, runs clean routes, wins against linebackers in space, and has the kind of catch radius and YAC ability to project as a productive receiving TE at the next level.

Measurables & Background

| Attribute | Value |

|---|---|

| Height | 6'3" |

| Weight | 250 lbs |

| Position | Tight End |

| School | NC State (transfer from UConn) |

| Conference | ACC |

| Draft Class | 2026 |

| Seasons | UConn 2022–2023 → NC State 2024–2025 |

| Career Stats | 166 REC / 1,978 YDS / 15 TD |

Season-by-Season Stats:

| Season | Team | REC | YDS | TD |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| 2022 | UConn | 18 | 250 | 2 |

| 2023 | UConn | 56 | 578 | 2 |

| 2024 | NC State | 43 | 661 | 4 |

| 2025 | NC State | 49 | 489 | 7 |

| Career | | 166 | 1,978 | 15 |

PFF Grades by Season:

| Season | Team | Overall | Receiving | Blocking |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| 2022 | UConn | 74 | 76 | 54 |

| 2023 | UConn | 70 | 72 | 66 |

| 2024 | NC State | 71 | 72 | 55 |

| 2025 | NC State | 78 | 82 | 56 |

2024 PFF Spotlight Stats: 72.3 Receiving Grade / 661 Receiving Yards / 4 TD / 10.1 ADOT

Film Sources Reviewed

| Source | Frames | Key Content |

|---|---|---|

| King Cold Sports Talk — Justin Joly Draft Evaluation \| NC State Tight End Film Breakdown (6:48) | 18 | Measurables, career stats, PFF grade history, alignment versatility, run blocking angles, open-field athleticism, cross-game clips vs. ACC opponents |

| PFF College Football Show — Justin Joly, NC State Breakdown: Top-10 TEs in College Football (2:09) | 19 | PFF analysts ranking Joly #4 TE nationally; 2024 season stat card (72.3 rec grade, 661 yds, 10.1 ADOT); analytical breakdown |

| ACC Digital Network — Justin Joly 2025 Regular Season Highlights \| NC State Tight End (10:05) | 18 | Live game action: ECU, Wake Forest, Duke, Campbell, Pitt, Florida State, North Carolina; catching, YAC, contested plays, red-zone TDs |

What The Film Shows

Route Running — **B+ (Above Average)**

Joly shows a clean, deliberate route stem with good footwork at the top of his routes. The film reveals he's predominantly used in three alignment zones: as an in-line Y, an H-back wing, and split out into the slot. He runs the standard intermediate TE tree — crossers, drags, seam sits, and abbreviated out-routes — with enough precision to consistently find soft spots in zone coverage. His 10.1 ADOT in 2024 (film_2_003) is the key number here: this is not a dump-off artist — he's being asked to threaten the intermediate-to-deep middle of the field, and he delivers. What you see in the highlights package (highlights_001–018) is a TE who sets up his routes with good head-and-shoulder fakes and cleans his feet efficiently at the break. He won't give you the refined route tree of a converted wide receiver, but for the TE position his route running is well above average. Where he can improve is in his releases against press coverage — NC State didn't force him into many contested release situations off the line.

Athleticism & Speed — **B (Above Average)**

For 250 pounds, Joly moves well. The clearest illustration is film_017 and film_018 (open field vs. Pitt), where he's operating in space at midfield with clear separation from defenders trailing in pursuit — a linebacker and a safety who can't close the gap. In highlights_013 (vs. Pitt), there's a compelling separation play where he's gained significant open-field position after the catch, with a Pitt defender on the ground behind him (missed/broken tackle) and another in trail coverage that can't recover. His stride pattern is fluid, not choppy — this isn't a short-area burner; he has functional top-end speed likely in the 4.65–4.72 range. He's a legitimate linebacker nightmare in space and can stretch safeties to the post/seam. Highlight: the Duke game dive (highlights_005) shows explosive lower-body power — he's launching himself fully horizontal at full speed, which requires elite athleticism for a 250-pound tight end.

Hands & Catching — **B+ (Above Average)**

Seven touchdowns in 2025 tells you something important: coaches trust him when it matters. The red-zone usage (highlights_003, highlights_006, highlights_012) shows a player who can make contested catches in traffic. His body control is his standout catching trait — the full-horizontal dive in highlights_005 against Duke, arms fully extended, body parallel to the ground, is an elite catch-radius moment. He's not a drop-prone receiver; his career 82 receiving grade in 2025 indicates reliable hands under PFF's tracking. The post-catch stabilization in highlights_006 (vs. Duke, surrounded by multiple defenders) shows he can secure the catch through contact and maintain control in a crowd. No notable drop issues visible in the film reviewed.

YAC & After Contact — **B (Above Average)**

Joly is a 250-pound momentum player in the open field — he's not going to make you miss with elite elusiveness, but he's going to run through arm tackles and punish defensive backs who can't get a clean hit. The Pitt game frames (highlights_011–013) show this clearly: he's turning short receptions into chunk plays, and the footage of a Pitt defender already on the ground behind him is evidence he had already broken one tackle before the frame was captured. The Wake Forest game (highlights_003–004) features contact fighting near the goal line where he drives through multiple defenders. His YAC style is physical — he runs with his pads down and keeps his legs churning. The one caution is that against elite SEC-level speed at the next level, some of those contested YAC plays may get cleaned up faster.

Blocking — **C+ (Below Average for TE, Functional)**

This is the honest concern with Joly. His career PFF blocking grades tell the story: 54, 66, 55, 56 — never cracking 70 over four seasons. The film confirms this assessment. In film_005 through film_007 (NC State at BC, run game), he's aligned in-line and engaged, but his pad level rises quickly after contact, and he doesn't generate the sustained movement in drive blocks that teams want from a full-time inline starter. Film_008 (run play, ACC logo visible) shows him in a zone blocking assignment where he's making contact but not creating displacement. He's a willing and effort-full blocker — he doesn't quit on blocks — but at 250 pounds he can get overpowered by NFL defensive ends and can't consistently anchor against edge rushers who test him in-line. His best blocking contribution at the NFL level will be reach blocking in zone-run schemes, crack-back blocks on edge defenders, and chip blocks before releasing into routes. Teams asking him to be a true Y-TE who can block at the point of attack in the run game for 50+ snaps a game will be disappointed.

Scheme Fit — **B+ (Broad Fit, Best as Move/F-TE)**

Joly's best NFL home is in an offense that uses a "move" or "F" tight end concept — think: 12 personnel spread sets, West Coast passing trees that flood the intermediate zones, or any system that deploys an athletic TE as a mismatched weapon against slower linebackers. His blocking limitations mean he's not ideal for power-run-first systems that want their TE to stay in-line for run blocking duty. The ACC Digital Network highlights show NC State featured him both from in-line alignment and in the slot/wing — that versatility is real and translatable. He can be split wide on certain downs to create favorable matchups against linebackers in man coverage. The 10.1 ADOT in 2024 shows he can operate as a vertical seam threat. Dynasty-wise: he's the kind of TE who needs volume to produce, not a red-zone-only specialist — 7 TDs in 2025 was nice, but the 489-yard total shows he's not a week-to-week fantasy monster unless he's a featured piece of the passing game.

Strengths Summary

Concerns & Risks

NFL Comp

Primary Comp: Tyler Higbee (circa Year 2–3)

Joly maps closely onto Tyler Higbee's profile entering the league — a solid-sized receiving TE (Higbee: 6'5"/249) with reliable hands, above-average route running, and blocking that needed development. Higbee was a mid-round pick who developed into a legit starter as his blocking improved and his offensive coordinator committed to him as a featured weapon. Joly has similar receiver upside and similar blocking limitations. The dynasty narrative tracks: buy low, wait for Year 2–3 to see if the NFL develops him into a complete player. The upside if that happens is a WR2-equivalent TE in the right system.

Secondary Comp: Cole Kmet (entry level)

Kmet came out with similar size (6'4"/262), similar receiving pedigree in a spread-friendly ACC-type environment, and similar blocking development concerns. Like Kmet, Joly is athletic enough to play "big slot" and threatens vertically enough to force safeties out of the box. Kmet developed into a legitimate starter with 70+ catch potential. Joly's ceiling is in that range if everything breaks right. The floor for both players is a rotational TE2 who contributes heavily in 12-personnel passing sets and provides minimal run-blocking value.

Bottom Line

Justin Joly is a legitimate receiving tight end who has earned his status as one of the top prospects at the position in the 2026 draft class, and PFF's #4 national ranking isn't a reach. His 2025 campaign — 49 catches, 7 touchdowns, 82 PFF receiving grade — represents a player peaking at the right time, and his athleticism and body control will translate. The problem is his blocking ceiling remains low after four years of evidence, which means he needs to land in the right offensive system to reach his dynasty potential, and his 2025 yardage dip suggests he's being deployed more as a red-zone specialist than a full-route-tree weapon. Buy him as a depth/stash piece if he falls to Day 3, but the first team that commits to him as a featured TE2 in a pass-first system will get meaningful production within a year.

SCOUT SCORE

Score: 72/100

Projected Pick: R3, Pick 70–90

Film Score: 72 / 100

Scout 2 Report: Justin Joly, TE, NC State

The Short Version

Joly's a smooth receiving threat with legit size and YAC juice, but the blocking tape screams "slot mover" more than inline hammer—contrarian take: Day 2 talent in a TE room desperate for first-round traits, but he'll bust if force-fed 9-tech duties early.

Measurables & Background

| Category | Details |

|--------------|----------------------------------|

| Height | 6'3" |

| Weight | 250 lbs |

| Age (2026 Draft) | ~22 (redshirt sophomore breakout path) |

| School | NC State (ACC) |

| Stats 2024 | 661 rec yds, 4 TD, 10.1 aDOT (PFF 72.3 rec grade) |

| Stats 2025? | 47 rec, 488 yds, 7 TD (highlights partial) |

| Background | Canadian pipeline TE, exploded as sophomore with PFF top-10 billing; receiving-first profile in pro-style ACC offense. |

Film Sources

| Source | Duration | # Frames | Prefix |

|---------------------------------------------|----------|----------|------------|

| King Cold Sports Talk — Draft Evaluation | 6:48 | 37 | film_ |

| ACC Digital Network — 2025 Highlights | 10:05 | 18 | highlights_ |

| PFF College Show — Top-10 TE Breakdown | 2:09 | 19 | film_2_ |

Film Analysis

Key TE Traits (graded X/10 + letter):

Overall Grade: B (78/100)

Strengths

Concerns

Dynasty Outlook

Immediate TE2/3 flex in pass-first offense (e.g., SF/MIA) with slot reps; Year 2 TE1 upside if blocking polishes. Dynasty RB3/4 equiv value—stash for 2027 leap in creative OC. Avoid run-heavy shops (PHI/BAL).

NFL Comp

Bottom Line

Joly's a plug-and-play receiving TE who'll post 600/6 rookie year in right spot, but don't sleep on the blocking red flags tanking his stock—smart teams grab him R3, dreamers reach R2.

SCOUT SCORE

Score: 78/100

Projected Pick: R3, Pick 70-90

Film Score: 78 / 100