THE MODEL

Our rookie model scores prospects on two pillars:

  • **Pulse (70%)** — College production metrics: rushing efficiency, receiving stats, passing numbers, usage rates, and recruiting pedigree
  • **Age (30%)** — Youth premium rewarding younger draft-eligible players

No Opportunity score — these players haven't taken an NFL snap yet. Combine and pro day data will be incorporated as it becomes available.

Position discounts: WRs receive an 8% haircut, RBs/QBs/TEs receive 4%. These reflect historical bust rates and position scarcity in dynasty formats.

1. Jeremiyah Love — RB, Notre Dame — 86.9

The top spot goes to a back who was electric all season for the Fighting Irish. Love averaged 6.9 yards per carry on 199 attempts with 18 rushing touchdowns, plus showed receiving chops with 27 catches for 280 yards. His 94-yard long run tells you about the home-run ability. At 6'0" 210 as a true junior, the age profile is perfect — he's one of the youngest backs in this class. A 45.6% rushing usage rate shows Notre Dame leaned on him heavily, and he delivered.

Key stats: 1,372 rush yards | 6.9 YPC | 18 rush TD | 27 rec, 280 yards, 3 TD

2. Emmett Johnson — RB, Nebraska — 84.0

Johnson was a workhorse in Lincoln, racking up 251 carries for 1,451 yards (5.8 YPC) with 12 scores on the ground. What separates him is the receiving — 46 catches for 370 yards shows a true three-down profile. That 70-yard long run confirms the breakaway speed. A redshirt junior who should test well at the combine, Johnson profiles as a Day 2 pick with immediate dynasty relevance.

Key stats: 1,451 rush yards | 5.8 YPC | 12 rush TD | 46 rec, 370 yards, 3 TD

3. Fernando Mendoza — QB, Indiana — 83.7

The engine behind Indiana's breakout season. Mendoza completed 72% of his passes for 3,535 yards with a ridiculous 41:6 TD-to-INT ratio and 9.3 yards per attempt. He also added 276 rushing yards and 7 TDs on the ground. Those efficiency numbers are elite — the completion percentage, YPA, and TD rate all grade out near the top of this class. Landing spot will determine his dynasty ceiling, but the production is undeniable.

Key stats: 3,535 pass yards | 72% completion | 41 TD / 6 INT | 9.3 YPA | 276 rush yards, 7 TD

4. Makai Lemon — WR, USC — 82.4

Lemon was a target magnet for the Trojans with 79 receptions for 1,156 yards (14.6 YPR) and 11 touchdowns. That reception total at his age — true junior, one of the youngest in the class — is special. The 74-yard long reception shows he can win deep, not just underneath. Despite the WR discount in our model, he still lands at #4. High-volume, high-efficiency, elite age profile. Dynasty WR1 potential.

Key stats: 79 rec | 1,156 yards | 14.6 YPR | 11 TD

5. Carnell Tate — WR, Ohio State — 82.0

Tate's 17.2 yards per reception leads the top 10 and it's not close. He hauled in 51 catches for 875 yards and 9 TDs in Ohio State's loaded offense — imagine the target share in a less crowded room. Another true junior with an elite age score (93). The big-play ability (57-yard long) combined with his youth makes him a tantalizing dynasty target. He's a bet on ceiling.

Key stats: 51 rec | 875 yards | 17.2 YPR | 9 TD

6. Kevin Concepcion — WR, Texas A&M — 81.6

Concepcion broke out in the SEC with 61 catches for 919 yards and 9 scores. The 15.1 yards per reception shows he's more than a slot — he can win at all three levels. At 5'11" 187 as a true junior, the youth premium is maxed out. His rushing usage (7.5 YPC on 10 carries) hints at gadget versatility that NFL teams will scheme up. One of the more intriguing day-two WR prospects.

Key stats: 61 rec | 919 yards | 15.1 YPR | 9 TD | 75 rush yards

7. Chris Brazzell II — WR, Tennessee — 80.7

Brazzell cracked 1,000 yards receiving (1,017) with 62 catches and 9 touchdowns in the SEC. At 6'5" 200, his size-speed combination is rare — that 72-yard long reception shows he can burn secondaries despite the big frame. A redshirt junior, he's slightly older than the true juniors above him, which is the only thing holding him back. If he tests well at the combine, watch his stock rise.

Key stats: 62 rec | 1,017 yards | 16.4 YPR | 9 TD

8. Diego Pavia — QB, Vanderbilt — 79.4

The most fascinating prospect in this class. Pavia lit up the SEC with 3,539 passing yards, 29 TDs, and a 70.6% completion rate — oh, and 862 rushing yards with 10 more scores on the ground. That's a 66.2% usage rate, meaning he was involved in two-thirds of Vanderbilt's offensive plays. The concern? He's the oldest player in our top 10, which is why the age score (70) pulls him down from what would otherwise be a top-3 Pulse. A dual-threat with proven SEC production, but the clock is ticking.

Key stats: 3,539 pass yards | 70.6% completion | 29 TD / 8 INT | 862 rush yards, 10 TD

9. Denzel Boston — WR, Washington — 78.2

Boston piled up 62 catches for 881 yards and 11 touchdowns at Washington. The 11 scores tie for the most among WRs in our top 10. At 6'3" 209, he has the size to win in contested situations. The 78-yard long reception confirms the speed is there too. A redshirt junior with a strong frame who could hear his name called on Day 2.

Key stats: 62 rec | 881 yards | 14.2 YPR | 11 TD

10. Omar Cooper Jr. — WR, Indiana — 78.1

Cooper was the other half of Indiana's aerial attack alongside Mendoza. 70 receptions for 961 yards and a whopping 13 touchdowns — that TD total leads all WRs in the top 10. He also showed versatility with a 75-yard rushing touchdown. The 13.7 YPR is solid but not spectacular, suggesting he wins with route-running and hands rather than pure speed. A redshirt junior who benefited from elite QB play, the question is whether he can replicate it at the next level.

Key stats: 70 rec | 961 yards | 13.7 YPR | 13 TD

POSITION BREAKDOWN

  • **RB: 2** (Love, Johnson) — Two workhorse backs with receiving chops
  • **WR: 6** (Lemon, Tate, Concepcion, Brazzell, Boston, Cooper) — Wide receivers dominate, as usual
  • **QB: 2** (Mendoza, Pavia) — Two very different profiles: the efficient passer and the dual-threat

No tight ends crack the top 10. The TE position remains the hardest to project from college production — even the best college TEs rarely see the volume needed to grade out here.

COMBINE WATCH

The NFL Combine will reshape these rankings. Key things to watch:

  • **Jeremiyah Love's 40 time** — A sub-4.4 would cement him as the RB1
  • **Makai Lemon's testing** — His tape says speed, the combine will confirm it
  • **Diego Pavia's arm strength** — The rushing is proven, but NFL teams want to see the arm
  • **Chris Brazzell's athletic testing** — At 6'5", elite testing could push him into Round 1 conversation

We'll update these rankings post-combine with athletic testing factored into the model. Stay tuned.