Superflex ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — March 16, 2026

The full weekly Superflex ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the Superflex market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Carson Wentz(MIN, QB)

ECR: 356 → Model: #133 — Gap: +223

Score: 63.1 · Pulse: 38.0 · Age: 81.6

2.Mitchell Trubisky(BUF, QB)

ECR: 354 → Model: #132 — Gap: +222

Score: 63.2 · Pulse: 59.9 · Age: 86.9

3.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 340 → Model: #168 — Gap: +172

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

4.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 349 → Model: #184 — Gap: +165

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

5.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 343 → Model: #186 — Gap: +157

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

6.Brock Wright(DET, TE)

ECR: 339 → Model: #185 — Gap: +154

Score: 56.0 · Pulse: 46.9 · Age: 90.3

7.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 281 → Model: #134 — Gap: +147

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

8.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 231 → Model: #91 — Gap: +140

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

9.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 327 → Model: #194 — Gap: +133

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

10.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 230 → Model: #102 — Gap: +128

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

11.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 337 → Model: #210 — Gap: +127

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

12.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 278 → Model: #153 — Gap: +125

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

13.Josh Oliver(MIN, TE)

ECR: 343 → Model: #227 — Gap: +116

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 47.5 · Age: 81.3

14.Mac Jones(SF, QB)

ECR: 150 → Model: #36 — Gap: +114

Score: 80.8 · Pulse: 61.2 · Age: 92.5

15.Tommy Tremble(CAR, TE)

ECR: 314 → Model: #201 — Gap: +113

Score: 54.9 · Pulse: 39.3 · Age: 93.0

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 87 → Model: #429 — Gap: -342

Score: 37.5 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 180 → Model: #522 — Gap: -342

Score: 28.8 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Brady Cook(NYJ, QB)

ECR: 243 → Model: #556 — Gap: -313

Score: 22.0 · Pulse: -43.2 · Age: 95.3

4.Trey Lance(LAC, QB)

ECR: 252 → Model: #558 — Gap: -306

Score: 20.9 · Pulse: -27.2 · Age: 93.9

5.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 268 → Model: #565 — Gap: -297

Score: 16.9 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

6.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 257 → Model: #541 — Gap: -284

Score: 26.2 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

7.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 181 → Model: #458 — Gap: -277

Score: 35.4 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

8.Taysom Hill(NO, TE)

ECR: 278 → Model: #534 — Gap: -256

Score: 27.3 · Pulse: 21.7 · Age: 33.0

9.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 240 → Model: #487 — Gap: -247

Score: 32.3 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

10.Jared Wiley(KC, TE)

ECR: 276 → Model: #500 — Gap: -224

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 10.1 · Age: 93.7

11.Philip Rivers(IND, QB)

ECR: 242 → Model: #464 — Gap: -222

Score: 35.2 · Pulse: 12.8 · Age: 40.0

12.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 139 → Model: #359 — Gap: -220

Score: 41.6 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

13.Jalen Royals(KC, WR)

ECR: 243 → Model: #448 — Gap: -205

Score: 36.2 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 97.5

14.Tahj Brooks(CIN, RB)

ECR: 276 → Model: #474 — Gap: -198

Score: 34.0 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 91.2

15.Khalil Herbert(NYJ, RB)

ECR: 292 → Model: #487 — Gap: -195

Score: 32.3 · Pulse: 20.8 · Age: 61.8

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of Superflex dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	1	2	-1	96.0
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	7	18	-11	89.1
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	7	4	+3	94.8
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	7	52	-45 🔴	77.3
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	9	40	-31 🔴	79.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	10	5	+5	94.5
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	10	15	-5	90.2
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	11	62	-51 🔴	75.0
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	12	46	-34 🔴	78.8
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	13	6	+7	94.2
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	13	3	+10	95.4
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	14	12	+2	91.5
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	14	95	-81 🔴	69.6
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	14	27	-13	84.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	15	15	0	90.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17	9	+8	92.1
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	20	35	-15 🔴	81.3
Drake Maye	QB	NE	21	1	+20 🟢	100.0
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	23	41	-18 🔴	79.2
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	23	32	-9	82.3
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	23	10	+13	92.0
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	25	17	+8	90.0
Jordan Love	QB	GB	26	19	+7	89.0
Drake London	WR	ATL	26	25	+1	85.8
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	26	7	+19 🟢	93.6
James Cook III	RB	BUF	29	30	-1	83.0
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	30	36	-6	80.8
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	31	53	-22 🔴	76.8
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	31	59	-28 🔴	75.6
George Pickens	WR	DAL	32	26	+6	84.3
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	33	23	+10	86.9
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	33	14	+19 🟢	90.4
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	33	49	-16 🔴	78.1
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	33	42	-9	79.1
Chris Olave	WR	NO	35	24	+11	85.9
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	35	8	+27 🟢	92.2
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	36	67	-31 🔴	73.9
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	38	103	-65 🔴	68.0
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	38	28	+10	83.7
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	39	10	+29 🟢	92.0
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	39	21	+18 🟢	87.5
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	39	55	-16 🔴	76.2
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	42	87	-45 🔴	70.7
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	44	57	-13	75.8
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	45	30	+15 🟢	83.0
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	45	44	+1	78.9
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	47	58	-11	75.7
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	47	65	-18 🔴	74.4
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	49	87	-38 🔴	70.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	50	85	-35 🔴	70.9
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	51	64	-13	74.7
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	52	56	-4	76.0
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	53	82	-29 🔴	71.2
Jared Goff	QB	DET	53	13	+40 🟢	91.0
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	54	47	+7	78.7
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	54	105	-51 🔴	67.5
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	55	43	+12	79.0
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	55	67	-12	73.9
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	57	50	+7	77.9
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	58	155	-97 🔴	60.6
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	58	89	-31 🔴	70.6
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	60	93	-33 🔴	69.7
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	61	38	+23 🟢	80.0
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	62	38	+24 🟢	80.0
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	66	29	+37 🟢	83.4
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	67	33	+34 🟢	82.0
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	67	103	-36 🔴	68.0
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	67	72	-5	72.5
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	69	162	-93 🔴	59.2
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	69	44	+25 🟢	78.9
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	69	70	-1	73.6
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	70	75	-5	72.4
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	72	111	-39 🔴	66.6
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	73	60	+13	75.4
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	76	33	+43 🟢	82.0
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	78	120	-42 🔴	65.1
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	79	61	+18 🟢	75.2
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	79	92	-13	70.0
Christian Watson	WR	GB	84	83	+1	71.1
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	84	142	-58 🔴	62.0
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	84	96	-12	69.1
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	86	51	+35 🟢	77.8
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	87	429	-342 🔴	37.5
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	91	72	+19 🟢	72.5
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	93	20	+73 🟢	87.8
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	93	108	-15 🔴	67.0
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	94	139	-45 🔴	62.2
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	94	98	-4	68.6
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	95	77	+18 🟢	72.0
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	95	191	-96 🔴	55.7
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	96	99	-3	68.4
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	96	109	-13	66.9
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	98	150	-52 🔴	61.2
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	98	153	-55 🔴	60.7
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	99	205	-106 🔴	54.8
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	100	107	-7	67.1
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	100	22	+78 🟢	87.3
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	101	122	-21 🔴	64.2
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	101	97	+4	68.9
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	103	157	-54 🔴	60.5
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	103	48	+55 🟢	78.2
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	104	78	+26 🟢	71.8
Tyreek Hill	WR	FA	104	165	-61 🔴	58.7
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	106	62	+44 🟢	75.0
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	107	155	-48 🔴	60.6
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	110	83	+27 🟢	71.1
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	112	65	+47 🟢	74.4
Malik Willis	QB	GB	113	93	+20 🟢	69.7
George Kittle	TE	SF	114	54	+60 🟢	76.4
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	115	99	+16 🟢	68.4
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	115	117	-2	65.3
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	115	85	+30 🟢	70.9
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	118	128	-10	63.4
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	118	190	-72 🔴	55.8
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	120	109	+11	66.9
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	121	115	+6	65.9
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	121	234	-113 🔴	52.2
Mike Evans	WR	TB	122	166	-44 🔴	58.4
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	125	213	-88 🔴	54.3
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	127	180	-53 🔴	56.9
Josh Downs	WR	IND	127	144	-17 🔴	61.8
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	129	239	-110 🔴	51.8
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	129	160	-31 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	129	239	-110 🔴	51.8
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	131	144	-13	61.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	131	144	-13	61.8
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	135	106	+29 🟢	67.3
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	135	81	+54 🟢	71.3
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	136	123	+13	64.1
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	139	359	-220 🔴	41.6
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	139	69	+70 🟢	73.7
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	142	199	-57 🔴	55.0
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	142	172	-30 🔴	58.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	143	99	+44 🟢	68.4
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	144	137	+7	62.3
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	147	75	+72 🟢	72.4
David Montgomery	RB	DET	148	201	-53 🔴	54.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	148	129	+19 🟢	63.3
Justin Fields	QB	NYJ	149	114	+35 🟢	66.4
Mac Jones	QB	SF	150	36	+114 🟢	80.8
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	150	111	+39 🟢	66.6
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	151	219	-68 🔴	53.6
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	151	269	-118 🔴	48.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	151	127	+24 🟢	63.5
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	153	79	+74 🟢	71.7
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	154	173	-19 🔴	57.8
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	155	164	-9	58.8
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	155	201	-46 🔴	54.9
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	156	134	+22 🟢	62.5
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	157	141	+16 🟢	62.1
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	160	144	+16 🟢	61.8
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	160	262	-102 🔴	49.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	161	152	+9	60.8
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	161	151	+10	61.1
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	163	137	+26 🟢	62.3
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	163	124	+39 🟢	64.0
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	165	214	-49 🔴	54.1
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	165	119	+46 🟢	65.2
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	166	129	+37 🟢	63.3
Geno Smith	QB	LV	166	234	-68 🔴	52.2
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	166	80	+86 🟢	71.6
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	167	169	-2	58.2
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	170	72	+98 🟢	72.5
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	173	182	-9	56.7
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	173	175	-2	57.5
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	175	126	+49 🟢	63.8
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	177	90	+87 🟢	70.4
Jalen Milroe	QB	SEA	180	522	-342 🔴	28.8
David Njoku	TE	CLE	180	149	+31 🟢	61.3
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	181	458	-277 🔴	35.4
Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	181	71	+110 🟢	72.6
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	182	261	-79 🔴	49.4
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	182	258	-76 🔴	49.7
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	183	175	+8	57.5
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	186	143	+43 🟢	61.9
Kirk Cousins	QB	ATL	186	210	-24 🔴	54.4
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	187	246	-59 🔴	50.8
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	187	228	-41 🔴	52.9
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	188	186	+2	55.9
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	189	242	-53 🔴	51.7
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	191	217	-26 🔴	53.7
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	192	251	-59 🔴	50.3
Rachaad White	RB	TB	194	205	-11	54.8
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	194	129	+65 🟢	63.3
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	195	272	-77 🔴	48.6
James Conner	RB	ARI	195	225	-30 🔴	53.1
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	197	334	-137 🔴	44.2
Quinn Ewers	QB	MIA	198	253	-55 🔴	50.2
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	198	255	-57 🔴	50.1
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	199	339	-140 🔴	43.9
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	199	248	-49 🔴	50.7
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	200	161	+39 🟢	59.4
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	201	268	-67 🔴	48.9
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	204	264	-60 🔴	49.1
Cade Otton	TE	TB	205	113	+92 🟢	66.5
Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	205	158	+47 🟢	60.0
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	205	116	+89 🟢	65.5
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	206	124	+82 🟢	64.0
Devin Neal	RB	NO	206	219	-13	53.6
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	207	250	-43 🔴	50.4

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*