Superflex ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — March 3, 2026

The full weekly Superflex ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the Superflex market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Mitchell Trubisky(BUF, QB)

ECR: 354 → Model: #123 — Gap: +231

Score: 63.2 · Pulse: 59.9 · Age: 86.9

2.Carson Wentz(MIN, QB)

ECR: 356 → Model: #166 — Gap: +190

Score: 57.1 · Pulse: 38.0 · Age: 81.6

3.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 340 → Model: #157 — Gap: +183

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

4.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 349 → Model: #172 — Gap: +177

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

5.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 343 → Model: #173 — Gap: +170

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

6.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 281 → Model: #125 — Gap: +156

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

7.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 231 → Model: #85 — Gap: +146

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

8.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 327 → Model: #182 — Gap: +145

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

9.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 337 → Model: #200 — Gap: +137

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

10.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 230 → Model: #95 — Gap: +135

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

11.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 278 → Model: #143 — Gap: +135

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

12.Tommy Tremble(CAR, TE)

ECR: 314 → Model: #189 — Gap: +125

Score: 54.9 · Pulse: 39.3 · Age: 93.0

13.Josh Oliver(MIN, TE)

ECR: 343 → Model: #219 — Gap: +124

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 47.5 · Age: 81.3

14.Mac Jones(SF, QB)

ECR: 150 → Model: #30 — Gap: +120

Score: 80.8 · Pulse: 61.2 · Age: 92.5

15.Brock Wright(DET, TE)

ECR: 339 → Model: #219 — Gap: +120

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 46.9 · Age: 90.3

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 87 → Model: #446 — Gap: -359

Score: 35.7 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 180 → Model: #525 — Gap: -345

Score: 28.0 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Brady Cook(NYJ, QB)

ECR: 243 → Model: #554 — Gap: -311

Score: 22.0 · Pulse: -43.2 · Age: 95.3

4.Trey Lance(LAC, QB)

ECR: 252 → Model: #557 — Gap: -305

Score: 20.9 · Pulse: -27.2 · Age: 93.9

5.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 181 → Model: #478 — Gap: -297

Score: 32.7 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

6.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 268 → Model: #565 — Gap: -297

Score: 16.1 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

7.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 257 → Model: #545 — Gap: -288

Score: 23.4 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

8.Philip Rivers(IND, QB)

ECR: 242 → Model: #519 — Gap: -277

Score: 28.4 · Pulse: 12.8 · Age: 40.0

9.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 240 → Model: #512 — Gap: -272

Score: 29.5 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

10.Taysom Hill(NO, TE)

ECR: 278 → Model: #527 — Gap: -249

Score: 27.3 · Pulse: 21.7 · Age: 33.0

11.Russell Wilson(NYG, QB)

ECR: 212 → Model: #459 — Gap: -247

Score: 34.9 · Pulse: 13.8 · Age: 68.8

12.Jared Wiley(KC, TE)

ECR: 276 → Model: #492 — Gap: -216

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 10.1 · Age: 93.7

13.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 139 → Model: #352 — Gap: -213

Score: 41.6 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

14.Jalen Royals(KC, WR)

ECR: 243 → Model: #436 — Gap: -193

Score: 36.2 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 97.5

15.Tahj Brooks(CIN, RB)

ECR: 276 → Model: #466 — Gap: -190

Score: 34.0 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 91.2

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of Superflex dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	1	2	-1	96.0
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	7	15	-8	89.1
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	7	18	-11	87.2
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	7	46	-39 🔴	77.3
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	9	35	-26 🔴	79.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	10	4	+6	94.5
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	10	12	-2	90.2
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	11	54	-43 🔴	75.0
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	12	40	-28 🔴	78.8
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	13	5	+8	94.2
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	13	3	+10	95.4
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	14	10	+4	91.5
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	14	128	-114 🔴	62.2
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	14	22	-8	84.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	15	12	+3	90.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17	8	+9	92.1
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	20	27	-7	81.3
Drake Maye	QB	NE	21	1	+20 🟢	100.0
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	23	36	-13	79.2
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	23	47	-24 🔴	76.6
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	23	23	0	83.7
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	25	14	+11	90.0
Jordan Love	QB	GB	26	16	+10	89.0
Drake London	WR	ATL	26	20	+6	85.8
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	26	6	+20 🟢	93.6
James Cook III	RB	BUF	29	24	+5	83.0
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	30	30	0	80.8
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	31	72	-41 🔴	71.3
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	31	52	-21 🔴	75.6
George Pickens	WR	DAL	32	21	+11	84.3
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	33	19	+14	86.9
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	33	29	+4	81.1
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	33	43	-10	78.1
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	33	80	-47 🔴	70.8
Chris Olave	WR	NO	35	48	-13	76.3
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	35	7	+28 🟢	92.2
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	36	107	-71 🔴	65.3
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	38	123	-85 🔴	63.2
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	38	45	-7	77.5
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	39	9	+30 🟢	92.0
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	39	49	-10	76.2
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	39	28	+11	81.2
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	42	82	-40 🔴	70.7
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	44	50	-6	75.8
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	45	24	+21 🟢	83.0
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	45	38	+7	78.9
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	47	51	-4	75.7
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	47	57	-10	74.4
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	49	82	-33 🔴	70.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	50	117	-67 🔴	63.7
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	51	56	-5	74.7
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	52	72	-20 🔴	71.3
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	53	75	-22 🔴	71.2
Jared Goff	QB	DET	53	11	+42 🟢	91.0
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	54	42	+12	78.7
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	54	97	-43 🔴	67.5
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	55	37	+18 🟢	79.0
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	55	59	-4	73.9
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	57	44	+13	77.9
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	58	144	-86 🔴	60.6
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	58	113	-55 🔴	64.7
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	60	88	-28 🔴	69.7
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	61	33	+28 🟢	80.0
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	62	33	+29 🟢	80.0
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	66	40	+26 🟢	78.8
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	67	62	+5	73.3
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	67	96	-29 🔴	68.0
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	67	104	-37 🔴	66.1
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	69	151	-82 🔴	59.2
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	69	61	+8	73.6
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	69	38	+31 🟢	78.9
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	70	66	+4	72.4
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	72	101	-29 🔴	66.6
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	73	53	+20 🟢	75.4
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	76	26	+50 🟢	82.0
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	78	111	-33 🔴	65.1
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	79	86	-7	70.1
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	79	87	-8	70.0
Christian Watson	WR	GB	84	77	+7	71.1
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	84	132	-48 🔴	62.0
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	84	90	-6	69.1
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	86	75	+11	71.2
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	87	446	-359 🔴	35.7
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	91	64	+27 🟢	72.5
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	93	17	+76 🟢	87.8
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	93	162	-69 🔴	57.7
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	94	128	-34 🔴	62.2
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	94	92	+2	68.6
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	95	67	+28 🟢	72.0
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	95	178	-83 🔴	55.7
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	96	93	+3	68.4
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	96	99	-3	66.9
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	98	168	-70 🔴	56.9
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	98	199	-101 🔴	54.5
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	99	194	-95 🔴	54.8
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	100	141	-41 🔴	60.8
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	100	32	+68 🟢	80.3
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	101	91	+10	68.9
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	101	114	-13	64.2
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	103	147	-44 🔴	60.5
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	103	71	+32 🟢	71.5
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	104	68	+36 🟢	71.8
Tyreek Hill	WR	FA	104	200	-96 🔴	54.4
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	106	54	+52 🟢	75.0
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	107	144	-37 🔴	60.6
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	110	77	+33 🟢	71.1
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	112	57	+55 🟢	74.4
Malik Willis	QB	GB	113	88	+25 🟢	69.7
George Kittle	TE	SF	114	80	+34 🟢	70.8
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	115	93	+22 🟢	68.4
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	115	107	+8	65.3
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	115	79	+36 🟢	70.9
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	118	119	-1	63.4
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	118	176	-58 🔴	55.8
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	120	99	+21 🟢	66.9
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	121	144	-23 🔴	60.6
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	121	226	-105 🔴	52.2
Mike Evans	WR	TB	122	156	-34 🔴	58.4
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	125	205	-80 🔴	54.3
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	127	168	-41 🔴	56.9
Josh Downs	WR	IND	127	134	-7	61.8
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	129	253	-124 🔴	49.1
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	129	150	-21 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	129	229	-100 🔴	51.8
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	131	134	-3	61.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	131	134	-3	61.8
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	135	98	+37 🟢	67.3
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	135	72	+63 🟢	71.3
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	136	152	-16 🔴	59.1
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	139	352	-213 🔴	41.6
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	139	60	+79 🟢	73.7
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	142	187	-45 🔴	55.0
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	142	160	-18 🔴	58.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	143	139	+4	60.9
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	144	127	+17 🟢	62.3
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	147	106	+41 🟢	65.4
David Montgomery	RB	DET	148	189	-41 🔴	54.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	148	120	+28 🟢	63.3
Justin Fields	QB	NYJ	149	139	+10	60.9
Mac Jones	QB	SF	150	30	+120 🟢	80.8
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	150	101	+49 🟢	66.6
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	151	212	-61 🔴	53.6
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	151	259	-108 🔴	48.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	151	118	+33 🟢	63.5
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	153	69	+84 🟢	71.7
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	154	161	-7	57.8
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	155	154	+1	58.8
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	155	189	-34 🔴	54.9
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	156	125	+31 🟢	62.5
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	157	131	+26 🟢	62.1
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	160	134	+26 🟢	61.8
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	160	250	-90 🔴	49.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	161	141	+20 🟢	60.8
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	161	138	+23 🟢	61.1
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	163	176	-13	55.8
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	163	115	+48 🟢	64.0
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	165	206	-41 🔴	54.1
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	165	110	+55 🟢	65.2
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	166	120	+46 🟢	63.3
Geno Smith	QB	LV	166	349	-183 🔴	41.9
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	166	70	+96 🟢	71.6
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	167	158	+9	58.2
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	170	64	+106 🟢	72.5
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	173	171	+2	56.7
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	173	164	+9	57.5
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	175	155	+20 🟢	58.5
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	177	84	+93 🟢	70.4
Jalen Milroe	QB	SEA	180	525	-345 🔴	28.0
David Njoku	TE	CLE	180	180	0	55.6
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	181	478	-297 🔴	32.7
Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	181	63	+118 🟢	72.6
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	182	249	-67 🔴	49.4
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	182	334	-152 🔴	42.9
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	183	189	-6	54.9
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	186	133	+53 🟢	61.9
Kirk Cousins	QB	ATL	186	200	-14	54.4
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	187	221	-34 🔴	52.9
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	187	235	-48 🔴	50.8
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	188	173	+15 🟢	55.9
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	189	231	-42 🔴	51.7
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	191	210	-19 🔴	53.7
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	192	323	-131 🔴	43.6
Rachaad White	RB	TB	194	194	0	54.8
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	194	120	+74 🟢	63.3
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	195	306	-111 🔴	45.0
James Conner	RB	ARI	195	254	-59 🔴	49.0
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	197	340	-143 🔴	42.3
Quinn Ewers	QB	MIA	198	242	-44 🔴	50.2
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	198	313	-115 🔴	44.3
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	199	321	-122 🔴	43.9
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	199	237	-38 🔴	50.7
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	200	214	-14	53.5
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	201	258	-57 🔴	48.9
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	204	309	-105 🔴	44.7
Cade Otton	TE	TB	205	103	+102 🟢	66.5
Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	205	148	+57 🟢	60.0
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	205	105	+100 🟢	65.5
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	206	115	+91 🟢	64.0
Devin Neal	RB	NO	206	241	-35 🔴	50.3
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	207	240	-33 🔴	50.4

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*