Superflex ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — February 27, 2026

The full weekly Superflex ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the Superflex market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Mitchell Trubisky(BUF, QB)

ECR: 359 → Model: #123 — Gap: +236

Score: 63.2 · Pulse: 59.9 · Age: 86.9

2.Ronnie Bell(NO, WR)

ECR: 409 → Model: #178 — Gap: +231

Score: 55.7 · Pulse: 51.1 · Age: 90.7

3.Carson Wentz(MIN, QB)

ECR: 355 → Model: #166 — Gap: +189

Score: 57.1 · Pulse: 38.0 · Age: 81.6

4.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 335 → Model: #157 — Gap: +178

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

5.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 344 → Model: #173 — Gap: +171

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

6.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 328 → Model: #172 — Gap: +156

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

7.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 276 → Model: #125 — Gap: +151

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

8.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 231 → Model: #85 — Gap: +146

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

9.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 318 → Model: #182 — Gap: +136

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

10.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 228 → Model: #95 — Gap: +133

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

11.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 275 → Model: #143 — Gap: +132

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

12.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 326 → Model: #200 — Gap: +126

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

13.Mac Jones(SF, QB)

ECR: 152 → Model: #30 — Gap: +122

Score: 80.8 · Pulse: 61.2 · Age: 92.5

14.Jacoby Brissett(ARI, QB)

ECR: 185 → Model: #63 — Gap: +122

Score: 72.6 · Pulse: 45.9 · Age: 81.6

15.Xavier Hutchinson(HOU, WR)

ECR: 311 → Model: #194 — Gap: +117

Score: 54.8 · Pulse: 37.6 · Age: 91.2

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 91 → Model: #446 — Gap: -355

Score: 35.7 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 179 → Model: #525 — Gap: -346

Score: 28.0 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Brady Cook(NYJ, QB)

ECR: 243 → Model: #554 — Gap: -311

Score: 22.0 · Pulse: -43.2 · Age: 95.3

4.Trey Lance(LAC, QB)

ECR: 252 → Model: #557 — Gap: -305

Score: 20.9 · Pulse: -27.2 · Age: 93.9

5.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 181 → Model: #478 — Gap: -297

Score: 32.7 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

6.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 268 → Model: #565 — Gap: -297

Score: 16.1 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

7.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 257 → Model: #545 — Gap: -288

Score: 23.4 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

8.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 240 → Model: #512 — Gap: -272

Score: 29.5 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

9.Taysom Hill(NO, TE)

ECR: 265 → Model: #527 — Gap: -262

Score: 27.3 · Pulse: 21.7 · Age: 33.0

10.Russell Wilson(NYG, QB)

ECR: 210 → Model: #459 — Gap: -249

Score: 34.9 · Pulse: 13.8 · Age: 68.8

11.Jared Wiley(KC, TE)

ECR: 276 → Model: #492 — Gap: -216

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 10.1 · Age: 93.7

12.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 138 → Model: #352 — Gap: -214

Score: 41.6 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

13.Zamir White(LV, RB)

ECR: 298 → Model: #495 — Gap: -197

Score: 30.8 · Pulse: 14.9 · Age: 73.3

14.Jalen Royals(KC, WR)

ECR: 245 → Model: #436 — Gap: -191

Score: 36.2 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 97.5

15.Tahj Brooks(CIN, RB)

ECR: 277 → Model: #466 — Gap: -189

Score: 34.0 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 91.2

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of Superflex dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	1	2	-1	96.0
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	7	15	-8	89.1
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	7	18	-11	87.2
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	7	46	-39 🔴	77.3
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	9	35	-26 🔴	79.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	10	4	+6	94.5
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	10	12	-2	90.2
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	11	54	-43 🔴	75.0
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	12	40	-28 🔴	78.8
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	12	3	+9	95.4
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	13	5	+8	94.2
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	14	128	-114 🔴	62.2
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	14	10	+4	91.5
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	15	22	-7	84.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	15	12	+3	90.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17	8	+9	92.1
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	20	27	-7	81.3
Drake Maye	QB	NE	21	1	+20 🟢	100.0
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	22	36	-14	79.2
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	23	47	-24 🔴	76.6
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	23	23	0	83.7
Jordan Love	QB	GB	26	16	+10	89.0
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	26	14	+12	90.0
Drake London	WR	ATL	26	20	+6	85.8
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	27	6	+21 🟢	93.6
James Cook III	RB	BUF	29	24	+5	83.0
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	30	72	-42 🔴	71.3
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	31	30	+1	80.8
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	31	52	-21 🔴	75.6
George Pickens	WR	DAL	32	21	+11	84.3
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	32	19	+13	86.9
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	33	29	+4	81.1
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	33	43	-10	78.1
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	34	80	-46 🔴	70.8
Chris Olave	WR	NO	36	48	-12	76.3
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	36	107	-71 🔴	65.3
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	36	7	+29 🟢	92.2
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	36	45	-9	77.5
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	38	49	-11	76.2
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	38	123	-85 🔴	63.2
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	39	9	+30 🟢	92.0
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	39	28	+11	81.2
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	42	82	-40 🔴	70.7
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	43	38	+5	78.9
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	44	50	-6	75.8
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	44	24	+20 🟢	83.0
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	47	51	-4	75.7
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	47	57	-10	74.4
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	49	117	-68 🔴	63.7
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	49	82	-33 🔴	70.7
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	49	56	-7	74.7
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	51	72	-21 🔴	71.3
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	53	42	+11	78.7
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	53	97	-44 🔴	67.5
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	53	75	-22 🔴	71.2
Jared Goff	QB	DET	54	11	+43 🟢	91.0
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	55	59	-4	73.9
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	56	37	+19 🟢	79.0
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	57	44	+13	77.9
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	57	113	-56 🔴	64.7
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	59	144	-85 🔴	60.6
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	60	88	-28 🔴	69.7
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	61	33	+28 🟢	80.0
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	62	33	+29 🟢	80.0
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	66	40	+26 🟢	78.8
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	67	62	+5	73.3
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	67	104	-37 🔴	66.1
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	68	96	-28 🔴	68.0
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	68	38	+30 🟢	78.9
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	69	61	+8	73.6
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	70	66	+4	72.4
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	70	151	-81 🔴	59.2
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	72	101	-29 🔴	66.6
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	72	53	+19 🟢	75.4
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	76	26	+50 🟢	82.0
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	77	111	-34 🔴	65.1
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	78	87	-9	70.0
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	79	86	-7	70.1
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	84	132	-48 🔴	62.0
Christian Watson	WR	GB	85	77	+8	71.1
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	85	90	-5	69.1
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	89	168	-79 🔴	56.9
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	90	75	+15 🟢	71.2
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	91	64	+27 🟢	72.5
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	91	446	-355 🔴	35.7
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	91	162	-71 🔴	57.7
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	92	178	-86 🔴	55.7
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	92	128	-36 🔴	62.2
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	94	92	+2	68.6
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	94	17	+77 🟢	87.8
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	95	99	-4	66.9
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	95	67	+28 🟢	72.0
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	95	93	+2	68.4
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	96	199	-103 🔴	54.5
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	98	141	-43 🔴	60.8
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	99	91	+8	68.9
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	101	32	+69 🟢	80.3
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	101	114	-13	64.2
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	101	194	-93 🔴	54.8
Tyreek Hill	WR	FA	101	200	-99 🔴	54.4
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	103	144	-41 🔴	60.6
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	104	71	+33 🟢	71.5
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	104	68	+36 🟢	71.8
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	104	54	+50 🟢	75.0
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	105	147	-42 🔴	60.5
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	111	77	+34 🟢	71.1
George Kittle	TE	SF	112	80	+32 🟢	70.8
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	112	57	+55 🟢	74.4
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	114	107	+7	65.3
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	114	93	+21 🟢	68.4
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	114	79	+35 🟢	70.9
Malik Willis	QB	GB	117	88	+29 🟢	69.7
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	118	119	-1	63.4
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	119	144	-25 🔴	60.6
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	119	176	-57 🔴	55.8
Mike Evans	WR	TB	121	156	-35 🔴	58.4
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	121	226	-105 🔴	52.2
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	122	99	+23 🟢	66.9
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	125	205	-80 🔴	54.3
Josh Downs	WR	IND	125	134	-9	61.8
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	127	168	-41 🔴	56.9
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	127	134	-7	61.8
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	128	253	-125 🔴	49.1
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	129	150	-21 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	131	229	-98 🔴	51.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	134	134	0	61.8
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	135	152	-17 🔴	59.1
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	136	98	+38 🟢	67.3
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	136	72	+64 🟢	71.3
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	138	352	-214 🔴	41.6
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	139	60	+79 🟢	73.7
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	141	160	-19 🔴	58.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	142	139	+3	60.9
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	144	187	-43 🔴	55.0
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	145	106	+39 🟢	65.4
David Montgomery	RB	DET	146	189	-43 🔴	54.9
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	146	127	+19 🟢	62.3
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	147	120	+27 🟢	63.3
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	148	101	+47 🟢	66.6
Justin Fields	QB	NYJ	149	139	+10	60.9
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	149	118	+31 🟢	63.5
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	150	259	-109 🔴	48.8
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	151	212	-61 🔴	53.6
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	152	154	-2	58.8
Mac Jones	QB	SF	152	30	+122 🟢	80.8
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	152	189	-37 🔴	54.9
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	155	125	+30 🟢	62.5
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	155	69	+86 🟢	71.7
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	155	131	+24 🟢	62.1
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	156	161	-5	57.8
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	160	141	+19 🟢	60.8
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	161	134	+27 🟢	61.8
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	161	115	+46 🟢	64.0
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	161	176	-15 🔴	55.8
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	162	250	-88 🔴	49.3
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	163	138	+25 🟢	61.1
Geno Smith	QB	LV	165	349	-184 🔴	41.9
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	165	110	+55 🟢	65.2
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	165	206	-41 🔴	54.1
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	167	158	+9	58.2
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	167	120	+47 🟢	63.3
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	169	70	+99 🟢	71.6
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	170	64	+106 🟢	72.5
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	174	171	+3	56.7
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	175	155	+20 🟢	58.5
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	177	84	+93 🟢	70.4
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	179	334	-155 🔴	42.9
Jalen Milroe	QB	SEA	179	525	-346 🔴	28.0
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	180	249	-69 🔴	49.4
David Njoku	TE	CLE	181	180	+1	55.6
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	181	478	-297 🔴	32.7
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	182	164	+18 🟢	57.5
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	182	133	+49 🟢	61.9
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	183	189	-6	54.9
Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	185	63	+122 🟢	72.6
Kirk Cousins	QB	ATL	185	200	-15 🔴	54.4
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	186	221	-35 🔴	52.9
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	187	210	-23 🔴	53.7
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	188	173	+15 🟢	55.9
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	189	231	-42 🔴	51.7
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	189	235	-46 🔴	50.8
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	192	323	-131 🔴	43.6
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	193	306	-113 🔴	45.0
Rachaad White	RB	TB	194	194	0	54.8
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	195	120	+75 🟢	63.3
James Conner	RB	ARI	195	254	-59 🔴	49.0
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	197	237	-40 🔴	50.7
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	197	313	-116 🔴	44.3
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	197	321	-124 🔴	43.9
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	199	340	-141 🔴	42.3
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	199	214	-15 🔴	53.5
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	200	258	-58 🔴	48.9
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	200	309	-109 🔴	44.7
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	202	105	+97 🟢	65.5
Cade Otton	TE	TB	204	103	+101 🟢	66.5
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	204	115	+89 🟢	64.0
Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	205	148	+57 🟢	60.0
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	206	240	-34 🔴	50.4
Devin Neal	RB	NO	206	241	-35 🔴	50.3
Jack Bech	WR	LV	207	292	-85 🔴	46.1

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*