Superflex ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — February 17, 2026

The full weekly Superflex ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the Superflex market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Mitchell Trubisky(BUF, QB)

ECR: 359 → Model: #123 — Gap: +236

Score: 63.2 · Pulse: 59.9 · Age: 86.9

2.Ronnie Bell(NO, WR)

ECR: 379 → Model: #178 — Gap: +201

Score: 55.7 · Pulse: 51.1 · Age: 90.7

3.Carson Wentz(MIN, QB)

ECR: 360 → Model: #166 — Gap: +194

Score: 57.1 · Pulse: 38.0 · Age: 81.6

4.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 335 → Model: #157 — Gap: +178

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

5.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 339 → Model: #173 — Gap: +166

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

6.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 328 → Model: #172 — Gap: +156

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

7.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 273 → Model: #125 — Gap: +148

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

8.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 228 → Model: #85 — Gap: +143

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

9.Quintin Morris(JAC, TE)

ECR: 376 → Model: #235 — Gap: +141

Score: 50.8 · Pulse: 43.9 · Age: 90.7

10.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 227 → Model: #95 — Gap: +132

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

11.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 326 → Model: #200 — Gap: +126

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

12.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 266 → Model: #143 — Gap: +123

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

13.Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.(LV, TE)

ECR: 355 → Model: #234 — Gap: +121

Score: 50.9 · Pulse: 44.5 · Age: 87.5

14.Mac Jones(SF, QB)

ECR: 150 → Model: #30 — Gap: +120

Score: 80.8 · Pulse: 61.2 · Age: 92.5

15.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 301 → Model: #182 — Gap: +119

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 90 → Model: #446 — Gap: -356

Score: 35.7 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 173 → Model: #525 — Gap: -352

Score: 28.0 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Adam Thielen(FA, WR)

ECR: 208 → Model: #519 — Gap: -311

Score: 28.4 · Pulse: 20.5 · Age: 30.0

4.Brady Cook(NYJ, QB)

ECR: 243 → Model: #554 — Gap: -311

Score: 22.0 · Pulse: -43.2 · Age: 95.3

5.Trey Lance(LAC, QB)

ECR: 252 → Model: #557 — Gap: -305

Score: 20.9 · Pulse: -27.2 · Age: 93.9

6.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 180 → Model: #478 — Gap: -298

Score: 32.7 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

7.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 268 → Model: #565 — Gap: -297

Score: 16.1 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

8.Philip Rivers(IND, QB)

ECR: 242 → Model: #519 — Gap: -277

Score: 28.4 · Pulse: 12.8 · Age: 40.0

9.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 240 → Model: #512 — Gap: -272

Score: 29.5 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

10.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 273 → Model: #545 — Gap: -272

Score: 23.4 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

11.Russell Wilson(NYG, QB)

ECR: 202 → Model: #459 — Gap: -257

Score: 34.9 · Pulse: 13.8 · Age: 68.8

12.Taysom Hill(NO, TE)

ECR: 272 → Model: #527 — Gap: -255

Score: 27.3 · Pulse: 21.7 · Age: 33.0

13.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 133 → Model: #352 — Gap: -219

Score: 41.6 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

14.Jared Wiley(KC, TE)

ECR: 276 → Model: #492 — Gap: -216

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 10.1 · Age: 93.7

15.Khalil Herbert(NYJ, RB)

ECR: 282 → Model: #481 — Gap: -199

Score: 32.3 · Pulse: 20.8 · Age: 61.8

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of Superflex dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	1	2	-1	96.0
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	6	15	-9	89.1
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	7	46	-39 🔴	77.3
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	7	18	-11	87.2
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	9	35	-26 🔴	79.4
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	10	12	-2	90.2
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	10	54	-44 🔴	75.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	11	4	+7	94.5
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	12	40	-28 🔴	78.8
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	12	3	+9	95.4
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	13	5	+8	94.2
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	14	128	-114 🔴	62.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	15	12	+3	90.2
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	15	10	+5	91.5
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	15	22	-7	84.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17	8	+9	92.1
Drake Maye	QB	NE	21	1	+20 🟢	100.0
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	22	47	-25 🔴	76.6
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	22	36	-14	79.2
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	23	27	-4	81.3
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	24	23	+1	83.7
Drake London	WR	ATL	26	20	+6	85.8
Jordan Love	QB	GB	27	16	+11	89.0
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	27	14	+13	90.0
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	28	6	+22 🟢	93.6
James Cook III	RB	BUF	30	24	+6	83.0
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	30	72	-42 🔴	71.3
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	31	30	+1	80.8
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	31	19	+12	86.9
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	32	29	+3	81.1
George Pickens	WR	DAL	32	21	+11	84.3
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	32	52	-20 🔴	75.6
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	33	80	-47 🔴	70.8
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	34	43	-9	78.1
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	35	45	-10	77.5
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	35	7	+28 🟢	92.2
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	35	107	-72 🔴	65.3
Chris Olave	WR	NO	36	48	-12	76.3
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	37	123	-86 🔴	63.2
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	37	49	-12	76.2
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	39	9	+30 🟢	92.0
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	40	28	+12	81.2
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	41	82	-41 🔴	70.7
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	42	50	-8	75.8
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	43	24	+19 🟢	83.0
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	45	38	+7	78.9
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	45	51	-6	75.7
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	46	57	-11	74.4
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	47	117	-70 🔴	63.7
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	48	75	-27 🔴	71.2
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	49	82	-33 🔴	70.7
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	50	56	-6	74.7
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	50	97	-47 🔴	67.5
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	51	72	-21 🔴	71.3
Jared Goff	QB	DET	54	11	+43 🟢	91.0
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	54	42	+12	78.7
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	55	59	-4	73.9
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	55	88	-33 🔴	69.7
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	55	37	+18 🟢	79.0
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	56	113	-57 🔴	64.7
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	60	44	+16 🟢	77.9
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	60	33	+27 🟢	80.0
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	61	144	-83 🔴	60.6
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	63	104	-41 🔴	66.1
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	65	33	+32 🟢	80.0
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	66	40	+26 🟢	78.8
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	68	38	+30 🟢	78.9
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	68	66	+2	72.4
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	68	61	+7	73.6
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	68	62	+6	73.3
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	69	151	-82 🔴	59.2
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	69	101	-32 🔴	66.6
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	70	96	-26 🔴	68.0
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	74	53	+21 🟢	75.4
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	76	111	-35 🔴	65.1
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	77	87	-10	70.0
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	78	26	+52 🟢	82.0
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	78	86	-8	70.1
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	82	168	-86 🔴	56.9
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	84	132	-48 🔴	62.0
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	88	90	-2	69.1
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	89	128	-39 🔴	62.2
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	90	64	+26 🟢	72.5
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	90	92	-2	68.6
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	90	93	-3	68.4
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	90	446	-356 🔴	35.7
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	91	162	-71 🔴	57.7
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	91	178	-87 🔴	55.7
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	92	199	-107 🔴	54.5
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	92	75	+17 🟢	71.2
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	92	99	-7	66.9
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	93	67	+26 🟢	72.0
Christian Watson	WR	GB	94	77	+17 🟢	71.1
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	94	17	+77 🟢	87.8
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	95	91	+4	68.9
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	98	144	-46 🔴	60.6
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	101	32	+69 🟢	80.3
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	101	114	-13	64.2
Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	101	200	-99 🔴	54.4
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	102	68	+34 🟢	71.8
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	103	147	-44 🔴	60.5
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	103	54	+49 🟢	75.0
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	104	141	-37 🔴	60.8
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	106	71	+35 🟢	71.5
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	106	194	-88 🔴	54.8
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	109	57	+52 🟢	74.4
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	112	107	+5	65.3
George Kittle	TE	SF	113	80	+33 🟢	70.8
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	115	93	+22 🟢	68.4
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	117	77	+40 🟢	71.1
Mike Evans	WR	TB	118	156	-38 🔴	58.4
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	118	119	-1	63.4
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	118	176	-58 🔴	55.8
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	118	226	-108 🔴	52.2
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	118	79	+39 🟢	70.9
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	119	99	+20 🟢	66.9
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	120	144	-24 🔴	60.6
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	120	205	-85 🔴	54.3
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	122	134	-12	61.8
Josh Downs	WR	IND	122	134	-12	61.8
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	124	150	-26 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	125	229	-104 🔴	51.8
Malik Willis	QB	GB	125	88	+37 🟢	69.7
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	129	253	-124 🔴	49.1
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	132	168	-36 🔴	56.9
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	132	152	-20 🔴	59.1
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	133	352	-219 🔴	41.6
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	133	98	+35 🟢	67.3
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	134	60	+74 🟢	73.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	136	134	+2	61.8
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	138	187	-49 🔴	55.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	139	139	0	60.9
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	140	72	+68 🟢	71.3
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	141	106	+35 🟢	65.4
David Montgomery	RB	DET	141	189	-48 🔴	54.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	141	120	+21 🟢	63.3
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	142	160	-18 🔴	58.0
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	144	118	+26 🟢	63.5
Justin Fields	QB	NYJ	145	139	+6	60.9
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	145	259	-114 🔴	48.8
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	147	127	+20 🟢	62.3
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	148	131	+17 🟢	62.1
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	148	101	+47 🟢	66.6
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	148	154	-6	58.8
Mac Jones	QB	SF	150	30	+120 🟢	80.8
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	150	161	-11	57.8
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	152	189	-37 🔴	54.9
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	152	134	+18 🟢	61.8
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	155	212	-57 🔴	53.6
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	155	115	+40 🟢	64.0
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	155	250	-95 🔴	49.3
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	155	69	+86 🟢	71.7
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	156	125	+31 🟢	62.5
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	156	141	+15 🟢	60.8
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	158	176	-18 🔴	55.8
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	160	120	+40 🟢	63.3
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	162	138	+24 🟢	61.1
Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	163	63	+100 🟢	72.6
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	163	206	-43 🔴	54.1
Geno Smith	QB	LV	164	349	-185 🔴	41.9
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	164	158	+6	58.2
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	165	70	+95 🟢	71.6
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	170	64	+106 🟢	72.5
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	170	110	+60 🟢	65.2
David Njoku	TE	CLE	173	180	-7	55.6
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	173	155	+18 🟢	58.5
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	173	171	+2	56.7
Jalen Milroe	QB	SEA	173	525	-352 🔴	28.0
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	174	334	-160 🔴	42.9
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	175	249	-74 🔴	49.4
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	175	84	+91 🟢	70.4
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	176	133	+43 🟢	61.9
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	177	164	+13	57.5
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	178	173	+5	55.9
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	178	189	-11	54.9
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	180	210	-30 🔴	53.7
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	180	478	-298 🔴	32.7
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	181	306	-125 🔴	45.0
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	182	221	-39 🔴	52.9
Kirk Cousins	QB	ATL	182	200	-18 🔴	54.4
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	185	235	-50 🔴	50.8
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	186	231	-45 🔴	51.7
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	188	309	-121 🔴	44.7
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	188	323	-135 🔴	43.6
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	188	237	-49 🔴	50.7
Rachaad White	RB	TB	190	194	-4	54.8
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	190	313	-123 🔴	44.3
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	191	120	+71 🟢	63.3
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	192	321	-129 🔴	43.9
James Conner	RB	ARI	194	254	-60 🔴	49.0
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	196	340	-144 🔴	42.3
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	197	240	-43 🔴	50.4
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	198	258	-60 🔴	48.9
Devin Neal	RB	NO	198	241	-43 🔴	50.3
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	198	214	-16 🔴	53.5
Jack Bech	WR	LV	199	292	-93 🔴	46.1
Cade Otton	TE	TB	202	103	+99 🟢	66.5
Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	202	459	-257 🔴	34.9
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	202	272	-70 🔴	47.7
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	204	105	+99 🟢	65.5

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*