1QB ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — March 16, 2026

The full weekly 1QB ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the 1QB market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 350 → Model: #153 — Gap: +197

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

2.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 358 → Model: #169 — Gap: +189

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

3.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 297 → Model: #116 — Gap: +181

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

4.Brock Wright(DET, TE)

ECR: 350 → Model: #171 — Gap: +179

Score: 56.0 · Pulse: 46.9 · Age: 90.3

5.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 352 → Model: #173 — Gap: +179

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

6.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 344 → Model: #180 — Gap: +164

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

7.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 300 → Model: #139 — Gap: +161

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

8.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 235 → Model: #75 — Gap: +160

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

9.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 355 → Model: #195 — Gap: +160

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

10.Tommy Tremble(CAR, TE)

ECR: 337 → Model: #185 — Gap: +152

Score: 54.9 · Pulse: 39.3 · Age: 93.0

11.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 232 → Model: #86 — Gap: +146

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

12.Darren Waller(MIA, TE)

ECR: 278 → Model: #132 — Gap: +146

Score: 61.6 · Pulse: 72.4 · Age: 49.0

13.Noah Fant(CIN, TE)

ECR: 310 → Model: #164 — Gap: +146

Score: 57.1 · Pulse: 46.5 · Age: 85.0

14.Tyler Higbee(LAR, TE)

ECR: 321 → Model: #181 — Gap: +140

Score: 55.1 · Pulse: 59.1 · Age: 51.4

15.Xavier Hutchinson(HOU, WR)

ECR: 329 → Model: #189 — Gap: +140

Score: 54.8 · Pulse: 37.6 · Age: 91.2

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 137 → Model: #510 — Gap: -373

Score: 29.0 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 250 → Model: #549 — Gap: -299

Score: 22.2 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 198 → Model: #476 — Gap: -278

Score: 32.1 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

4.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 289 → Model: #564 — Gap: -275

Score: 16.9 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

5.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 176 → Model: #449 — Gap: -273

Score: 35.4 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

6.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 274 → Model: #531 — Gap: -257

Score: 26.2 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

7.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 300 → Model: #536 — Gap: -236

Score: 25.0 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

8.Russell Wilson(NYG, QB)

ECR: 290 → Model: #489 — Gap: -199

Score: 31.3 · Pulse: 13.8 · Age: 68.8

9.Joe Milton III(DAL, QB)

ECR: 291 → Model: #490 — Gap: -199

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 16.5 · Age: 93.8

10.Jalen Royals(KC, WR)

ECR: 243 → Model: #437 — Gap: -194

Score: 36.2 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 97.5

11.Jared Wiley(KC, TE)

ECR: 299 → Model: #490 — Gap: -191

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 10.1 · Age: 93.7

12.J.J. McCarthy(MIN, QB)

ECR: 154 → Model: #331 — Gap: -177

Score: 43.0 · Pulse: 16.4 · Age: 99.2

13.Khalil Herbert(NYJ, RB)

ECR: 297 → Model: #474 — Gap: -177

Score: 32.3 · Pulse: 20.8 · Age: 61.8

14.Cam Ward(TEN, QB)

ECR: 125 → Model: #301 — Gap: -176

Score: 45.7 · Pulse: 9.1 · Age: 97.1

15.Tahj Brooks(CIN, RB)

ECR: 298 → Model: #462 — Gap: -164

Score: 34.0 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 91.2

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of 1QB dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	1	8	-7	89.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	3	2	+1	94.5
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	4	3	+1	94.2
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	5	27	-22 🔴	78.8
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	5	42	-37 🔴	75.0
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	6	1	+5	95.4
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	7	4	+3	92.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	7	7	0	90.2
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	11	18	-7	82.3
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	11	23	-12	79.2
Drake London	WR	ATL	15	12	+3	85.8
James Cook III	RB	BUF	16	16	0	83.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	18	39	-21 🔴	75.6
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	18	33	-15 🔴	76.8
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	18	47	-29 🔴	74.2
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	19	10	+9	86.9
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	20	24	-4	79.1
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	20	30	-10	78.1
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	21	6	+15 🟢	90.4
Chris Olave	WR	NO	22	11	+11	85.9
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	24	48	-24 🔴	73.9
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	25	14	+11	83.7
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	27	5	+22 🟢	92.0
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	27	35	-8	76.2
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	28	9	+19 🟢	87.5
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	29	87	-58 🔴	68.0
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	29	70	-41 🔴	70.7
Drake Maye	QB	NE	29	22	+7	79.9
George Pickens	WR	DAL	30	13	+17 🟢	84.3
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	31	37	-6	75.8
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	34	16	+18 🟢	83.0
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	34	38	-4	75.7
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	36	70	-34 🔴	70.7
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	36	145	-109 🔴	59.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	37	68	-31 🔴	70.9
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	38	52	-14	73.3
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	38	44	-6	74.7
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	40	63	-23 🔴	71.2
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	41	28	+13	78.7
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	41	45	-4	74.4
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	41	133	-92 🔴	61.4
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	42	36	+6	76.0
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	42	90	-48 🔴	67.5
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	42	200	-158 🔴	53.8
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	42	25	+17 🟢	79.0
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	42	48	-6	73.9
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	43	31	+12	77.9
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	43	77	-34 🔴	69.7
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	45	141	-96 🔴	60.6
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	46	77	-31 🔴	69.7
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	48	21	+27 🟢	80.0
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	53	26	+27 🟢	78.9
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	54	15	+39 🟢	83.4
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	55	19	+36 🟢	82.0
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	55	70	-15 🔴	70.7
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	55	87	-32 🔴	68.0
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	56	53	+3	72.5
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	56	51	+5	73.6
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	56	76	-20 🔴	70.0
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	58	19	+39 🟢	82.0
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	58	104	-46 🔴	64.9
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	59	55	+4	72.4
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	60	95	-35 🔴	66.6
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	63	40	+23 🟢	75.4
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	65	93	-28 🔴	66.9
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	66	103	-37 🔴	65.1
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	66	115	-49 🔴	62.8
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	67	41	+26 🟢	75.2
Christian Watson	WR	GB	71	65	+6	71.1
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	72	125	-53 🔴	62.0
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	73	79	-6	69.6
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	73	65	+8	71.1
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	74	116	-42 🔴	62.5
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	74	32	+42 🟢	77.8
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	74	141	-67 🔴	60.6
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	76	57	+19 🟢	72.3
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	82	122	-40 🔴	62.2
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	82	82	0	68.6
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	83	83	0	68.4
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	84	58	+26 🟢	72.0
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	85	135	-50 🔴	61.2
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	86	189	-103 🔴	54.8
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	86	139	-53 🔴	60.7
Jordan Love	QB	GB	88	81	+7	68.8
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	89	80	+9	68.9
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	89	106	-17 🔴	64.2
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	91	29	+62 🟢	78.2
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	91	59	+32 🟢	71.8
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	91	143	-52 🔴	60.5
Tyreek Hill	WR	FA	93	150	-57 🔴	58.7
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	94	42	+52 🟢	75.0
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	95	63	+32 🟢	71.2
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	98	65	+33 🟢	71.1
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	99	45	+54 🟢	74.4
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	101	83	+18 🟢	68.4
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	102	68	+34 🟢	70.9
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	102	100	+2	65.3
George Kittle	TE	SF	103	34	+69 🟢	76.4
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	105	112	-7	63.4
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	105	177	-72 🔴	55.8
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	107	137	-30 🔴	60.9
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	108	98	+10	65.9
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	108	93	+15 🟢	66.9
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	109	220	-111 🔴	52.2
Mike Evans	WR	TB	110	151	-41 🔴	58.4
Jared Goff	QB	DET	113	74	+39 🟢	70.3
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	113	197	-84 🔴	54.3
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	115	165	-50 🔴	56.9
Josh Downs	WR	IND	116	127	-11	61.8
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	117	225	-108 🔴	51.8
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	118	145	-27 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	118	225	-107 🔴	51.8
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	119	127	-8	61.8
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	119	127	-8	61.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	120	127	-7	61.8
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	124	92	+32 🟢	67.3
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	124	62	+62 🟢	71.3
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	125	107	+18 🟢	64.1
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	125	301	-176 🔴	45.7
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	129	50	+79 🟢	73.7
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	131	157	-26 🔴	58.0
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	131	184	-53 🔴	55.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	132	83	+49 🟢	68.4
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	133	120	+13	62.3
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	137	55	+82 🟢	72.4
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	137	510	-373 🔴	29.0
David Montgomery	RB	DET	137	185	-48 🔴	54.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	137	113	+24 🟢	63.3
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	139	193	-54 🔴	54.6
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	140	95	+45 🟢	66.6
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	140	257	-117 🔴	48.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	141	111	+30 🟢	63.5
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	141	205	-64 🔴	53.6
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	143	208	-65 🔴	53.4
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	144	60	+84 🟢	71.7
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	145	158	-13	57.8
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	145	149	-4	58.8
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	145	171	-26 🔴	56.0
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	146	185	-39 🔴	54.9
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	147	116	+31 🟢	62.5
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	147	89	+58 🟢	67.9
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	148	124	+24 🟢	62.1
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	150	127	+23 🟢	61.8
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	151	138	+13	60.8
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	151	249	-98 🔴	49.3
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	152	136	+16 🟢	61.1
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	154	108	+46 🟢	64.0
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	154	331	-177 🔴	43.0
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	154	120	+34 🟢	62.3
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	156	222	-66 🔴	51.9
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	157	90	+67 🟢	67.5
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	157	198	-41 🔴	54.1
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	157	154	+3	58.2
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	159	102	+57 🟢	65.2
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	159	61	+98 🟢	71.6
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	161	53	+108 🟢	72.5
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	164	160	+4	57.5
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	165	167	-2	56.7
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	166	110	+56 🟢	63.8
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	170	73	+97 🟢	70.4
Malik Willis	QB	GB	171	200	-29 🔴	53.8
David Njoku	TE	CLE	172	134	+38 🟢	61.3
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	175	248	-73 🔴	49.4
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	176	449	-273 🔴	35.4
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	176	245	-69 🔴	49.7
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	177	160	+17 🟢	57.5
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	179	126	+53 🟢	61.9
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	180	234	-54 🔴	50.8
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	180	214	-34 🔴	52.9
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	180	173	+7	55.9
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	183	229	-46 🔴	51.7
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	185	239	-54 🔴	50.3
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	185	203	-18 🔴	53.7
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	185	225	-40 🔴	51.8
Rachaad White	RB	TB	187	189	-2	54.8
James Conner	RB	ARI	188	211	-23 🔴	53.1
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	190	261	-71 🔴	48.6
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	190	113	+77 🟢	63.3
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	190	322	-132 🔴	44.2
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	193	327	-134 🔴	43.9
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	193	236	-43 🔴	50.7
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	193	242	-49 🔴	50.1
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	194	254	-60 🔴	48.9
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	195	147	+48 🟢	59.4
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	198	476	-278 🔴	32.1
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	199	251	-52 🔴	49.1
Cade Otton	TE	TB	200	97	+103 🟢	66.5
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	200	99	+101 🟢	65.5
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	201	108	+93 🟢	64.0
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	203	238	-35 🔴	50.4
Jack Bech	WR	LV	203	296	-93 🔴	46.1
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	204	218	-14	52.5
Devin Neal	RB	NO	205	205	0	53.6
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	206	100	+106 🟢	65.3
Christian Kirk	WR	HOU	209	286	-77 🔴	46.8
Mac Jones	QB	SF	210	119	+91 🟢	62.4
Ben Sinnott	TE	WAS	211	214	-3	52.9
Evan Engram	TE	DEN	213	192	+21 🟢	54.7
Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	214	181	+33 🟢	55.1
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	214	144	+70 🟢	59.8

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*