1QB ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — March 12, 2026

The full weekly 1QB ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the 1QB market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 350 → Model: #145 — Gap: +205

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

2.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 358 → Model: #158 — Gap: +200

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

3.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 352 → Model: #161 — Gap: +191

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

4.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 297 → Model: #111 — Gap: +186

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

5.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 344 → Model: #169 — Gap: +175

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

6.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 355 → Model: #185 — Gap: +170

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

7.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 300 → Model: #132 — Gap: +168

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

8.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 235 → Model: #68 — Gap: +167

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

9.Tommy Tremble(CAR, TE)

ECR: 337 → Model: #174 — Gap: +163

Score: 54.9 · Pulse: 39.3 · Age: 93.0

10.Noah Fant(CIN, TE)

ECR: 310 → Model: #153 — Gap: +157

Score: 57.1 · Pulse: 46.5 · Age: 85.0

11.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 232 → Model: #79 — Gap: +153

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

12.Tyler Higbee(LAR, TE)

ECR: 321 → Model: #170 — Gap: +151

Score: 55.1 · Pulse: 59.1 · Age: 51.4

13.Xavier Hutchinson(HOU, WR)

ECR: 329 → Model: #179 — Gap: +150

Score: 54.8 · Pulse: 37.6 · Age: 91.2

14.Josh Oliver(MIN, TE)

ECR: 353 → Model: #204 — Gap: +149

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 47.5 · Age: 81.3

15.Brock Wright(DET, TE)

ECR: 350 → Model: #204 — Gap: +146

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 46.9 · Age: 90.3

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 137 → Model: #514 — Gap: -377

Score: 27.6 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 250 → Model: #549 — Gap: -299

Score: 21.6 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 176 → Model: #464 — Gap: -288

Score: 32.7 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

4.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 289 → Model: #564 — Gap: -275

Score: 16.1 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

5.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 198 → Model: #471 — Gap: -273

Score: 32.1 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

6.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 274 → Model: #536 — Gap: -262

Score: 23.4 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

7.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 300 → Model: #540 — Gap: -240

Score: 22.8 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

8.Geno Smith(LV, QB)

ECR: 235 → Model: #468 — Gap: -233

Score: 32.4 · Pulse: 11.0 · Age: 74.7

9.Russell Wilson(NYG, QB)

ECR: 290 → Model: #519 — Gap: -229

Score: 27.0 · Pulse: 13.8 · Age: 68.8

10.Jayden Daniels(WAS, QB)

ECR: 42 → Model: #252 — Gap: -210

Score: 48.1 · Pulse: 45.7 · Age: 94.4

11.Joe Milton III(DAL, QB)

ECR: 291 → Model: #483 — Gap: -192

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 16.5 · Age: 93.8

12.Jared Wiley(KC, TE)

ECR: 299 → Model: #483 — Gap: -184

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 10.1 · Age: 93.7

13.Jalen Royals(KC, WR)

ECR: 243 → Model: #426 — Gap: -183

Score: 36.2 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 97.5

14.Khalil Herbert(NYJ, RB)

ECR: 297 → Model: #469 — Gap: -172

Score: 32.3 · Pulse: 20.8 · Age: 61.8

15.J.J. McCarthy(MIN, QB)

ECR: 154 → Model: #320 — Gap: -166

Score: 43.0 · Pulse: 16.4 · Age: 99.2

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of 1QB dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	1	7	-6	89.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	3	2	+1	94.5
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	4	3	+1	94.2
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	5	21	-16 🔴	78.8
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	5	34	-29 🔴	75.0
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	6	1	+5	95.4
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	7	4	+3	92.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	7	6	+1	90.2
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	11	27	-16 🔴	76.6
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	11	18	-7	79.2
Drake London	WR	ATL	15	9	+6	85.8
James Cook III	RB	BUF	16	11	+5	83.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	18	32	-14	75.6
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	18	52	-34 🔴	71.3
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	18	39	-21 🔴	74.2
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	19	8	+11	86.9
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	20	24	-4	78.1
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	20	61	-41 🔴	70.8
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	21	15	+6	81.1
Chris Olave	WR	NO	22	28	-6	76.3
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	24	93	-69 🔴	65.3
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	25	26	-1	77.5
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	27	5	+22 🟢	92.0
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	27	29	-2	76.2
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	28	14	+14	81.2
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	29	109	-80 🔴	63.2
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	29	63	-34 🔴	70.7
Drake Maye	QB	NE	29	17	+12	79.9
George Pickens	WR	DAL	30	10	+20 🟢	84.3
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	31	30	+1	75.8
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	34	11	+23 🟢	83.0
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	34	31	+3	75.7
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	36	63	-27 🔴	70.7
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	36	138	-102 🔴	59.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	37	104	-67 🔴	63.7
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	38	83	-45 🔴	67.4
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	38	36	+2	74.7
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	40	55	-15 🔴	71.2
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	41	37	+4	74.4
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	41	23	+18 🟢	78.7
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	41	127	-86 🔴	61.4
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	42	52	-10	71.3
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	42	82	-40 🔴	67.5
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	42	252	-210 🔴	48.1
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	42	19	+23 🟢	79.0
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	42	40	+2	73.9
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	43	25	+18 🟢	77.9
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	43	71	-28 🔴	69.7
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	45	133	-88 🔴	60.6
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	46	71	-25 🔴	69.7
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	48	16	+32 🟢	80.0
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	53	20	+33 🟢	78.9
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	54	21	+33 🟢	78.8
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	55	43	+12	73.3
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	55	63	-8	70.7
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	55	80	-25 🔴	68.0
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	56	90	-34 🔴	66.1
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	56	42	+14	73.6
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	56	70	-14	70.0
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	58	13	+45 🟢	82.0
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	58	98	-40 🔴	64.9
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	59	45	+14	72.4
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	60	87	-27 🔴	66.6
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	63	33	+30 🟢	75.4
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	65	85	-20 🔴	66.9
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	66	97	-31 🔴	65.1
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	66	110	-44 🔴	62.8
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	67	69	-2	70.1
Christian Watson	WR	GB	71	58	+13	71.1
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	72	120	-48 🔴	62.0
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	73	73	0	69.6
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	73	100	-27 🔴	64.7
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	74	111	-37 🔴	62.5
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	74	55	+19 🟢	71.2
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	74	133	-59 🔴	60.6
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	76	46	+30 🟢	72.3
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	82	116	-34 🔴	62.2
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	82	76	+6	68.6
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	83	77	+6	68.4
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	84	47	+37 🟢	72.0
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	85	154	-69 🔴	56.9
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	86	179	-93 🔴	54.8
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	86	184	-98 🔴	54.5
Jordan Love	QB	GB	88	75	+13	68.8
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	89	74	+15 🟢	68.9
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	89	101	-12	64.2
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	91	51	+40 🟢	71.5
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	91	48	+43 🟢	71.8
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	91	136	-45 🔴	60.5
Tyreek Hill	WR	FA	93	185	-92 🔴	54.4
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	94	34	+60 🟢	75.0
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	95	55	+40 🟢	71.2
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	98	58	+40 🟢	71.1
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	99	37	+62 🟢	74.4
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	101	77	+24 🟢	68.4
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	102	60	+42 🟢	70.9
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	102	93	+9	65.3
George Kittle	TE	SF	103	61	+42 🟢	70.8
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	105	106	-1	63.4
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	105	164	-59 🔴	55.8
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	107	129	-22 🔴	60.9
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	108	133	-25 🔴	60.6
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	108	85	+23 🟢	66.9
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	109	211	-102 🔴	52.2
Mike Evans	WR	TB	110	144	-34 🔴	58.4
Jared Goff	QB	DET	113	67	+46 🟢	70.3
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	113	189	-76 🔴	54.3
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	115	154	-39 🔴	56.9
Josh Downs	WR	IND	116	122	-6	61.8
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	117	238	-121 🔴	49.1
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	118	138	-20 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	118	214	-96 🔴	51.8
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	119	122	-3	61.8
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	119	122	-3	61.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	120	122	-2	61.8
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	124	84	+40 🟢	67.3
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	124	52	+72 🟢	71.3
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	125	140	-15 🔴	59.1
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	125	281	-156 🔴	45.7
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	129	41	+88 🟢	73.7
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	131	148	-17 🔴	58.0
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	131	173	-42 🔴	55.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	132	129	+3	60.9
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	133	115	+18 🟢	62.3
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	137	514	-377 🔴	27.6
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	137	92	+45 🟢	65.4
David Montgomery	RB	DET	137	174	-37 🔴	54.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	137	107	+30 🟢	63.3
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	139	228	-89 🔴	50.0
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	140	87	+53 🟢	66.6
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	140	245	-105 🔴	48.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	141	105	+36 🟢	63.5
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	141	197	-56 🔴	53.6
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	143	201	-58 🔴	53.4
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	144	49	+95 🟢	71.7
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	145	142	+3	58.8
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	145	149	-4	57.8
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	145	160	-15 🔴	56.0
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	146	174	-28 🔴	54.9
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	147	111	+36 🟢	62.5
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	147	81	+66 🟢	67.9
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	148	118	+30 🟢	62.1
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	150	122	+28 🟢	61.8
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	151	131	+20 🟢	60.8
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	151	235	-84 🔴	49.3
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	152	128	+24 🟢	61.1
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	154	102	+52 🟢	64.0
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	154	320	-166 🔴	43.0
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	154	164	-10	55.8
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	156	269	-113 🔴	47.0
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	157	118	+39 🟢	62.1
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	157	190	-33 🔴	54.1
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	157	146	+11	58.2
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	159	96	+63 🟢	65.2
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	159	50	+109 🟢	71.6
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	161	44	+117 🟢	72.5
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	164	151	+13	57.5
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	165	157	+8	56.7
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	166	143	+23 🟢	58.5
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	170	66	+104 🟢	70.4
Malik Willis	QB	GB	171	192	-21 🔴	53.8
David Njoku	TE	CLE	172	167	+5	55.6
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	175	234	-59 🔴	49.4
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	176	464	-288 🔴	32.7
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	176	324	-148 🔴	42.9
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	177	174	+3	54.9
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	179	121	+58 🟢	61.9
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	180	220	-40 🔴	50.8
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	180	206	-26 🔴	52.9
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	180	161	+19 🟢	55.9
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	183	216	-33 🔴	51.7
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	185	312	-127 🔴	43.6
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	185	195	-10	53.7
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	185	298	-113 🔴	44.6
Rachaad White	RB	TB	187	179	+8	54.8
James Conner	RB	ARI	188	239	-51 🔴	49.0
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	190	293	-103 🔴	45.0
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	190	107	+83 🟢	63.3
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	190	332	-142 🔴	42.3
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	193	310	-117 🔴	43.9
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	193	301	-108 🔴	44.3
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	193	222	-29 🔴	50.7
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	194	242	-48 🔴	48.9
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	195	199	-4	53.5
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	198	471	-273 🔴	32.1
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	199	296	-97 🔴	44.7
Cade Otton	TE	TB	200	89	+111 🟢	66.5
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	200	91	+109 🟢	65.5
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	201	102	+99 🟢	64.0
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	203	225	-22 🔴	50.4
Jack Bech	WR	LV	203	278	-75 🔴	46.1
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	204	259	-55 🔴	47.7
Devin Neal	RB	NO	205	226	-21 🔴	50.3
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	206	93	+113 🟢	65.3
Christian Kirk	WR	HOU	209	271	-62 🔴	46.8
Mac Jones	QB	SF	210	114	+96 🟢	62.4
Ben Sinnott	TE	WAS	211	206	+5	52.9
Evan Engram	TE	DEN	213	182	+31 🟢	54.7
Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	214	170	+44 🟢	55.1
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	214	137	+77 🟢	59.8

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*