1QB ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — February 27, 2026

The full weekly 1QB ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the 1QB market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Ronnie Bell(NO, WR)

ECR: 409 → Model: #166 — Gap: +243

Score: 55.7 · Pulse: 51.1 · Age: 90.7

2.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 348 → Model: #145 — Gap: +203

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

3.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 354 → Model: #158 — Gap: +196

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

4.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 353 → Model: #161 — Gap: +192

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

5.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 347 → Model: #169 — Gap: +178

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

6.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 288 → Model: #111 — Gap: +177

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

7.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 355 → Model: #185 — Gap: +170

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

8.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 236 → Model: #68 — Gap: +168

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

9.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 295 → Model: #132 — Gap: +163

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

10.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 230 → Model: #79 — Gap: +151

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

11.Xavier Hutchinson(HOU, WR)

ECR: 327 → Model: #179 — Gap: +148

Score: 54.8 · Pulse: 37.6 · Age: 91.2

12.Noah Fant(CIN, TE)

ECR: 300 → Model: #153 — Gap: +147

Score: 57.1 · Pulse: 46.5 · Age: 85.0

13.Brock Wright(DET, TE)

ECR: 350 → Model: #204 — Gap: +146

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 46.9 · Age: 90.3

14.Tommy Tremble(CAR, TE)

ECR: 317 → Model: #174 — Gap: +143

Score: 54.9 · Pulse: 39.3 · Age: 93.0

15.Josh Oliver(MIN, TE)

ECR: 345 → Model: #204 — Gap: +141

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 47.5 · Age: 81.3

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 137 → Model: #514 — Gap: -377

Score: 27.6 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 249 → Model: #549 — Gap: -300

Score: 21.6 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Brady Cook(NYJ, QB)

ECR: 274 → Model: #563 — Gap: -289

Score: 17.0 · Pulse: -43.2 · Age: 95.3

4.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 176 → Model: #464 — Gap: -288

Score: 32.7 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

5.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 196 → Model: #471 — Gap: -275

Score: 32.1 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

6.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 289 → Model: #564 — Gap: -275

Score: 16.1 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

7.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 274 → Model: #536 — Gap: -262

Score: 23.4 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

8.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 288 → Model: #540 — Gap: -252

Score: 22.8 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

9.Russell Wilson(NYG, QB)

ECR: 269 → Model: #519 — Gap: -250

Score: 27.0 · Pulse: 13.8 · Age: 68.8

10.Taysom Hill(NO, TE)

ECR: 277 → Model: #517 — Gap: -240

Score: 27.3 · Pulse: 21.7 · Age: 33.0

11.Geno Smith(LV, QB)

ECR: 232 → Model: #468 — Gap: -236

Score: 32.4 · Pulse: 11.0 · Age: 74.7

12.Jayden Daniels(WAS, QB)

ECR: 42 → Model: #252 — Gap: -210

Score: 48.1 · Pulse: 45.7 · Age: 94.4

13.Joe Milton III(DAL, QB)

ECR: 289 → Model: #483 — Gap: -194

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 16.5 · Age: 93.8

14.Jared Wiley(KC, TE)

ECR: 299 → Model: #483 — Gap: -184

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 10.1 · Age: 93.7

15.Jalen Royals(KC, WR)

ECR: 247 → Model: #426 — Gap: -179

Score: 36.2 · Pulse: 12.3 · Age: 97.5

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of 1QB dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	1	7	-6	89.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	3	2	+1	94.5
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	4	3	+1	94.2
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	5	21	-16 🔴	78.8
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	5	34	-29 🔴	75.0
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	6	1	+5	95.4
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	7	4	+3	92.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	7	6	+1	90.2
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	11	18	-7	79.2
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	11	27	-16 🔴	76.6
Drake London	WR	ATL	15	9	+6	85.8
James Cook III	RB	BUF	16	11	+5	83.0
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	18	39	-21 🔴	74.2
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	18	52	-34 🔴	71.3
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	18	32	-14	75.6
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	19	8	+11	86.9
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	20	61	-41 🔴	70.8
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	20	24	-4	78.1
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	21	15	+6	81.1
Chris Olave	WR	NO	23	28	-5	76.3
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	23	26	-3	77.5
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	24	93	-69 🔴	65.3
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	26	29	-3	76.2
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	28	5	+23 🟢	92.0
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	28	14	+14	81.2
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	29	63	-34 🔴	70.7
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	29	109	-80 🔴	63.2
Drake Maye	QB	NE	30	17	+13	79.9
George Pickens	WR	DAL	30	10	+20 🟢	84.3
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	31	30	+1	75.8
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	33	11	+22 🟢	83.0
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	34	31	+3	75.7
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	35	63	-28 🔴	70.7
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	36	138	-102 🔴	59.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	36	104	-68 🔴	63.7
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	36	36	0	74.7
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	37	83	-46 🔴	67.4
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	40	23	+17 🟢	78.7
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	41	82	-41 🔴	67.5
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	41	55	-14	71.2
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	41	37	+4	74.4
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	41	52	-11	71.3
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	42	252	-210 🔴	48.1
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	42	127	-85 🔴	61.4
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	42	40	+2	73.9
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	42	71	-29 🔴	69.7
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	43	25	+18 🟢	77.9
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	43	19	+24 🟢	79.0
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	46	71	-25 🔴	69.7
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	46	133	-87 🔴	60.6
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	48	16	+32 🟢	80.0
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	53	20	+33 🟢	78.9
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	53	21	+32 🟢	78.8
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	55	43	+12	73.3
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	55	70	-15 🔴	70.0
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	56	90	-34 🔴	66.1
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	56	63	-7	70.7
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	56	80	-24 🔴	68.0
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	56	42	+14	73.6
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	58	13	+45 🟢	82.0
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	58	98	-40 🔴	64.9
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	59	45	+14	72.4
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	60	87	-27 🔴	66.6
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	62	33	+29 🟢	75.4
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	65	97	-32 🔴	65.1
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	65	85	-20 🔴	66.9
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	65	110	-45 🔴	62.8
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	68	69	-1	70.1
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	72	100	-28 🔴	64.7
Christian Watson	WR	GB	72	58	+14	71.1
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	72	133	-61 🔴	60.6
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	73	120	-47 🔴	62.0
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	73	73	0	69.6
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	74	111	-37 🔴	62.5
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	76	154	-78 🔴	56.9
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	77	46	+31 🟢	72.3
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	78	55	+23 🟢	71.2
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	81	116	-35 🔴	62.2
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	82	76	+6	68.6
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	82	77	+5	68.4
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	84	184	-100 🔴	54.5
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	85	47	+38 🟢	72.0
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	87	74	+13	68.9
Jordan Love	QB	GB	88	75	+13	68.8
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	88	179	-91 🔴	54.8
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	88	101	-13	64.2
Tyreek Hill	WR	FA	90	185	-95 🔴	54.4
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	90	48	+42 🟢	71.8
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	91	51	+40 🟢	71.5
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	92	136	-44 🔴	60.5
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	93	34	+59 🟢	75.0
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	96	55	+41 🟢	71.2
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	99	37	+62 🟢	74.4
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	99	58	+41 🟢	71.1
George Kittle	TE	SF	100	61	+39 🟢	70.8
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	101	93	+8	65.3
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	101	77	+24 🟢	68.4
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	101	60	+41 🟢	70.9
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	105	106	-1	63.4
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	106	129	-23 🔴	60.9
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	106	133	-27 🔴	60.6
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	106	164	-58 🔴	55.8
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	108	211	-103 🔴	52.2
Mike Evans	WR	TB	108	144	-36 🔴	58.4
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	109	85	+24 🟢	66.9
Jared Goff	QB	DET	113	67	+46 🟢	70.3
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	114	189	-75 🔴	54.3
Josh Downs	WR	IND	114	122	-8	61.8
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	115	154	-39 🔴	56.9
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	115	122	-7	61.8
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	117	238	-121 🔴	49.1
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	118	138	-20 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	120	214	-94 🔴	51.8
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	120	122	-2	61.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	122	122	0	61.8
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	124	140	-16 🔴	59.1
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	125	52	+73 🟢	71.3
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	125	84	+41 🟢	67.3
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	127	281	-154 🔴	45.7
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	129	41	+88 🟢	73.7
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	130	148	-18 🔴	58.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	131	129	+2	60.9
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	132	173	-41 🔴	55.0
David Montgomery	RB	DET	135	174	-39 🔴	54.9
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	135	92	+43 🟢	65.4
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	136	115	+21 🟢	62.3
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	137	107	+30 🟢	63.3
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	137	514	-377 🔴	27.6
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	137	87	+50 🟢	66.6
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	139	105	+34 🟢	63.5
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	139	228	-89 🔴	50.0
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	139	245	-106 🔴	48.8
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	141	142	-1	58.8
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	142	197	-55 🔴	53.6
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	143	174	-31 🔴	54.9
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	145	201	-56 🔴	53.4
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	145	118	+27 🟢	62.1
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	146	111	+35 🟢	62.5
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	146	160	-14	56.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	146	49	+97 🟢	71.7
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	147	149	-2	57.8
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	148	81	+67 🟢	67.9
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	150	122	+28 🟢	61.8
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	151	131	+20 🟢	60.8
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	151	320	-169 🔴	43.0
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	152	102	+50 🟢	64.0
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	153	164	-11	55.8
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	153	235	-82 🔴	49.3
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	154	128	+26 🟢	61.1
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	154	269	-115 🔴	47.0
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	156	118	+38 🟢	62.1
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	157	190	-33 🔴	54.1
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	157	146	+11	58.2
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	159	96	+63 🟢	65.2
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	161	44	+117 🟢	72.5
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	162	50	+112 🟢	71.6
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	166	157	+9	56.7
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	167	143	+24 🟢	58.5
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	170	66	+104 🟢	70.4
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	173	324	-151 🔴	42.9
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	173	234	-61 🔴	49.4
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	173	151	+22 🟢	57.5
David Njoku	TE	CLE	174	167	+7	55.6
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	175	121	+54 🟢	61.9
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	176	464	-288 🔴	32.7
Malik Willis	QB	GB	176	192	-16 🔴	53.8
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	177	174	+3	54.9
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	180	206	-26 🔴	52.9
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	180	195	-15 🔴	53.7
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	181	161	+20 🟢	55.9
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	181	298	-117 🔴	44.6
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	182	220	-38 🔴	50.8
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	183	216	-33 🔴	51.7
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	185	312	-127 🔴	43.6
Rachaad White	RB	TB	186	179	+7	54.8
James Conner	RB	ARI	187	239	-52 🔴	49.0
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	188	293	-105 🔴	45.0
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	190	222	-32 🔴	50.7
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	191	107	+84 🟢	63.3
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	191	310	-119 🔴	43.9
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	191	301	-110 🔴	44.3
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	192	332	-140 🔴	42.3
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	193	242	-49 🔴	48.9
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	194	199	-5	53.5
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	195	296	-101 🔴	44.7
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	196	471	-275 🔴	32.1
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	198	91	+107 🟢	65.5
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	199	102	+97 🟢	64.0
Cade Otton	TE	TB	199	89	+110 🟢	66.5
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	202	225	-23 🔴	50.4
Jack Bech	WR	LV	202	278	-76 🔴	46.1
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	202	259	-57 🔴	47.7
Devin Neal	RB	NO	205	226	-21 🔴	50.3
Christian Kirk	WR	HOU	207	271	-64 🔴	46.8
Evan Engram	TE	DEN	207	182	+25 🟢	54.7
Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	211	170	+41 🟢	55.1
Ben Sinnott	TE	WAS	211	206	+5	52.9
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	213	93	+120 🟢	65.3
Mac Jones	QB	SF	214	114	+100 🟢	62.4
Justin Fields	QB	NYJ	214	268	-54 🔴	47.1

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*