1QB ADP vs Model: Full Analysis — February 17, 2026

The full weekly 1QB ECR vs Model breakdown. Our model scores every player using NFL play-by-play data — efficiency metrics, age curves, and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the 1QB market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Ronnie Bell(NO, WR)

ECR: 379 → Model: #166 — Gap: +213

Score: 55.7 · Pulse: 51.1 · Age: 90.7

2.Daniel Bellinger(NYG, TE)

ECR: 337 → Model: #145 — Gap: +192

Score: 58.3 · Pulse: 49.9 · Age: 93.5

3.Davis Allen(LAR, TE)

ECR: 347 → Model: #158 — Gap: +189

Score: 56.3 · Pulse: 42.7 · Age: 94.0

4.Jackson Hawes(BUF, TE)

ECR: 345 → Model: #161 — Gap: +184

Score: 55.9 · Pulse: 47.1 · Age: 93.8

5.Greg Dulcich(MIA, TE)

ECR: 287 → Model: #111 — Gap: +176

Score: 62.5 · Pulse: 54.1 · Age: 92.7

6.Jake Tonges(SF, TE)

ECR: 232 → Model: #68 — Gap: +164

Score: 70.2 · Pulse: 64.4 · Age: 91.3

7.Charlie Kolar(BAL, TE)

ECR: 348 → Model: #185 — Gap: +163

Score: 54.4 · Pulse: 47.9 · Age: 90.7

8.Quintin Morris(JAC, TE)

ECR: 382 → Model: #220 — Gap: +162

Score: 50.8 · Pulse: 43.9 · Age: 90.7

9.Mitchell Evans(CAR, TE)

ECR: 327 → Model: #169 — Gap: +158

Score: 55.2 · Pulse: 40.6 · Age: 100.0

10.Dawson Knox(BUF, TE)

ECR: 284 → Model: #132 — Gap: +152

Score: 60.7 · Pulse: 54.3 · Age: 78.8

11.Colby Parkinson(LAR, TE)

ECR: 228 → Model: #79 — Gap: +149

Score: 68.3 · Pulse: 61.5 · Age: 90.7

12.Brock Wright(DET, TE)

ECR: 346 → Model: #204 — Gap: +142

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 46.9 · Age: 90.3

13.Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.(LV, TE)

ECR: 361 → Model: #219 — Gap: +142

Score: 50.9 · Pulse: 44.5 · Age: 87.5

14.Tommy Tremble(CAR, TE)

ECR: 315 → Model: #174 — Gap: +141

Score: 54.9 · Pulse: 39.3 · Age: 93.0

15.Josh Oliver(MIN, TE)

ECR: 342 → Model: #204 — Gap: +138

Score: 53.0 · Pulse: 47.5 · Age: 81.3

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players ranked much higher by experts than our model suggests.

1.Anthony Richardson Sr.(IND, QB)

ECR: 138 → Model: #514 — Gap: -376

Score: 27.6 · Pulse: 8.7 · Age: 97.1

2.Jalen Milroe(SEA, QB)

ECR: 246 → Model: #549 — Gap: -303

Score: 21.6 · Pulse: -0.6 · Age: 98.9

3.Adam Thielen(FA, WR)

ECR: 210 → Model: #509 — Gap: -299

Score: 28.4 · Pulse: 20.5 · Age: 30.0

4.Kaleb Johnson(PIT, RB)

ECR: 175 → Model: #464 — Gap: -289

Score: 32.7 · Pulse: 10.6 · Age: 93.2

5.Brady Cook(NYJ, QB)

ECR: 274 → Model: #563 — Gap: -289

Score: 17.0 · Pulse: -43.2 · Age: 95.3

6.Shedeur Sanders(CLE, QB)

ECR: 191 → Model: #471 — Gap: -280

Score: 32.1 · Pulse: -7.1 · Age: 96.2

7.Philip Rivers(IND, QB)

ECR: 270 → Model: #546 — Gap: -276

Score: 21.9 · Pulse: 12.8 · Age: 40.0

8.Elijah Mitchell(NE, RB)

ECR: 289 → Model: #564 — Gap: -275

Score: 16.1 · Pulse: 0.0 · Age: 62.6

9.Gardner Minshew II(KC, QB)

ECR: 284 → Model: #540 — Gap: -256

Score: 22.8 · Pulse: -3.7 · Age: 90.6

10.Russell Wilson(NYG, QB)

ECR: 273 → Model: #519 — Gap: -246

Score: 27.0 · Pulse: 13.8 · Age: 68.8

11.Geno Smith(LV, QB)

ECR: 229 → Model: #468 — Gap: -239

Score: 32.4 · Pulse: 11.0 · Age: 74.7

12.Raheem Mostert(LV, RB)

ECR: 299 → Model: #536 — Gap: -237

Score: 23.4 · Pulse: 25.9 · Age: 25.0

13.Taysom Hill(NO, TE)

ECR: 290 → Model: #517 — Gap: -227

Score: 27.3 · Pulse: 21.7 · Age: 33.0

14.Jayden Daniels(WAS, QB)

ECR: 40 → Model: #252 — Gap: -212

Score: 48.1 · Pulse: 45.7 · Age: 94.4

15.Joe Milton III(DAL, QB)

ECR: 288 → Model: #483 — Gap: -195

Score: 31.1 · Pulse: 16.5 · Age: 93.8

📊 Full ECR vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of 1QB dynasty players: expert consensus vs model rankings.

Player	Pos	Team	ECR	Model	Gap	Score
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	1	7	-6	89.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	4	2	+2	94.5
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	5	3	+2	94.2
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	5	34	-29 🔴	75.0
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	5	21	-16 🔴	78.8
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	6	1	+5	95.4
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	7	4	+3	92.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	7	6	+1	90.2
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	11	27	-16 🔴	76.6
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	11	18	-7	79.2
Drake London	WR	ATL	15	9	+6	85.8
James Cook III	RB	BUF	17	11	+6	83.0
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	18	39	-21 🔴	74.2
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	19	52	-33 🔴	71.3
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	19	8	+11	86.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	20	32	-12	75.6
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	20	61	-41 🔴	70.8
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	21	15	+6	81.1
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	21	24	-3	78.1
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	22	26	-4	77.5
Chris Olave	WR	NO	23	28	-5	76.3
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	23	93	-70 🔴	65.3
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	26	29	-3	76.2
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	27	5	+22 🟢	92.0
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	28	14	+14	81.2
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	28	109	-81 🔴	63.2
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	29	63	-34 🔴	70.7
Drake Maye	QB	NE	30	17	+13	79.9
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	30	30	0	75.8
George Pickens	WR	DAL	30	10	+20 🟢	84.3
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	32	31	+1	75.7
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	32	11	+21 🟢	83.0
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	35	138	-103 🔴	59.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	35	104	-69 🔴	63.7
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	35	55	-20 🔴	71.2
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	36	63	-27 🔴	70.7
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	36	83	-47 🔴	67.4
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	38	36	+2	74.7
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAC	39	82	-43 🔴	67.5
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	40	252	-212 🔴	48.1
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	40	37	+3	74.4
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	41	52	-11	71.3
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	42	23	+19 🟢	78.7
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	42	40	+2	73.9
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	43	71	-28 🔴	69.7
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	43	127	-84 🔴	61.4
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	43	19	+24 🟢	79.0
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	43	71	-28 🔴	69.7
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	46	25	+21 🟢	77.9
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	48	16	+32 🟢	80.0
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	49	133	-84 🔴	60.6
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	52	90	-38 🔴	66.1
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	52	20	+32 🟢	78.9
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	54	70	-16 🔴	70.0
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	54	21	+33 🟢	78.8
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAC	55	42	+13	73.6
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	55	63	-8	70.7
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	57	45	+12	72.4
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	57	43	+14	73.3
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	58	87	-29 🔴	66.6
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	58	80	-22 🔴	68.0
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	58	98	-40 🔴	64.9
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE	ATL	59	13	+46 🟢	82.0
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	63	85	-22 🔴	66.9
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	64	33	+31 🟢	75.4
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	64	97	-33 🔴	65.1
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	67	69	-2	70.1
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	69	110	-41 🔴	62.8
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	70	133	-63 🔴	60.6
Travis Hunter	WR	JAC	70	154	-84 🔴	56.9
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	72	100	-28 🔴	64.7
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	73	120	-47 🔴	62.0
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	73	73	0	69.6
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	73	111	-38 🔴	62.5
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	77	77	0	68.4
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	78	76	+2	68.6
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	78	116	-38 🔴	62.2
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	79	46	+33 🟢	72.3
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	79	55	+24 🟢	71.2
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	80	184	-104 🔴	54.5
Christian Watson	WR	GB	82	58	+24 🟢	71.1
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	82	47	+35 🟢	72.0
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	83	74	+9	68.9
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAC	88	101	-13	64.2
Jordan Love	QB	GB	89	75	+14	68.8
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	89	48	+41 🟢	71.8
Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	91	185	-94 🔴	54.4
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	91	136	-45 🔴	60.5
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	91	34	+57 🟢	75.0
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	93	55	+38 🟢	71.2
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	94	51	+43 🟢	71.5
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	94	179	-85 🔴	54.8
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	97	37	+60 🟢	74.4
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	100	93	+7	65.3
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	102	77	+25 🟢	68.4
George Kittle	TE	SF	102	61	+41 🟢	70.8
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	105	129	-24 🔴	60.9
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	106	164	-58 🔴	55.8
Alec Pierce	WR	IND	106	58	+48 🟢	71.1
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	106	211	-105 🔴	52.2
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	106	106	0	63.4
Brenton Strange	TE	JAC	106	60	+46 🟢	70.9
Mike Evans	WR	TB	106	144	-38 🔴	58.4
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	107	133	-26 🔴	60.6
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	107	85	+22 🟢	66.9
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	109	189	-80 🔴	54.3
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	110	122	-12	61.8
Josh Downs	WR	IND	111	122	-11	61.8
Jared Goff	QB	DET	113	67	+46 🟢	70.3
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	113	138	-25 🔴	59.7
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAC	113	214	-101 🔴	51.8
Trey Benson	RB	ARI	118	238	-120 🔴	49.1
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	121	154	-33 🔴	56.9
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	122	140	-18 🔴	59.1
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	122	84	+38 🟢	67.3
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	123	122	+1	61.8
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	124	41	+83 🟢	73.7
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	125	281	-156 🔴	45.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	125	122	+3	61.8
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	127	173	-46 🔴	55.0
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	129	129	0	60.9
Parker Washington	WR	JAC	130	52	+78 🟢	71.3
David Montgomery	RB	DET	130	174	-44 🔴	54.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	131	107	+24 🟢	63.3
Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	131	92	+39 🟢	65.4
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	132	148	-16 🔴	58.0
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	134	245	-111 🔴	48.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	134	105	+29 🟢	63.5
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	135	228	-93 🔴	50.0
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	137	115	+22 🟢	62.3
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	137	118	+19 🟢	62.1
Anthony Richardson Sr.	QB	IND	138	514	-376 🔴	27.6
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	138	142	-4	58.8
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	138	87	+51 🟢	66.6
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	141	149	-8	57.8
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	142	122	+20 🟢	61.8
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	144	174	-30 🔴	54.9
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	144	201	-57 🔴	53.4
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	144	160	-16 🔴	56.0
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	146	197	-51 🔴	53.6
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	146	102	+44 🟢	64.0
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	146	235	-89 🔴	49.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	147	131	+16 🟢	60.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	147	49	+98 🟢	71.7
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	148	111	+37 🟢	62.5
J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	149	320	-171 🔴	43.0
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	150	81	+69 🟢	67.9
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	150	164	-14	55.8
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	154	128	+26 🟢	61.1
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	155	190	-35 🔴	54.1
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	155	146	+9	58.2
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	156	118	+38 🟢	62.1
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	157	50	+107 🟢	71.6
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	158	269	-111 🔴	47.0
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	161	44	+117 🟢	72.5
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	165	143	+22 🟢	58.5
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	166	96	+70 🟢	65.2
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	166	157	+9	56.7
David Njoku	TE	CLE	166	167	-1	55.6
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	168	234	-66 🔴	49.4
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	168	66	+102 🟢	70.4
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	168	324	-156 🔴	42.9
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	169	151	+18 🟢	57.5
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	169	121	+48 🟢	61.9
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	171	161	+10	55.9
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	173	174	-1	54.9
Darnell Mooney	WR	ATL	173	195	-22 🔴	53.7
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	175	464	-289 🔴	32.7
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	175	293	-118 🔴	45.0
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	176	206	-30 🔴	52.9
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	178	220	-42 🔴	50.8
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	180	298	-118 🔴	44.6
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	181	216	-35 🔴	51.7
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	182	312	-130 🔴	43.6
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	182	222	-40 🔴	50.7
Malik Willis	QB	GB	182	192	-10	53.8
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	183	296	-113 🔴	44.7
Rachaad White	RB	TB	183	179	+4	54.8
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	185	301	-116 🔴	44.3
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	SF	186	310	-124 🔴	43.9
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	188	107	+81 🟢	63.3
James Conner	RB	ARI	189	239	-50 🔴	49.0
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	191	332	-141 🔴	42.3
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	191	471	-280 🔴	32.1
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	192	242	-50 🔴	48.9
Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	192	225	-33 🔴	50.4
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	194	199	-5	53.5
Jack Bech	WR	LV	195	278	-83 🔴	46.1
Devin Neal	RB	NO	196	226	-30 🔴	50.3
Cade Otton	TE	TB	197	89	+108 🟢	66.5
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	197	259	-62 🔴	47.7
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	199	91	+108 🟢	65.5
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	202	102	+100 🟢	64.0
Evan Engram	TE	DEN	202	182	+20 🟢	54.7
Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	203	261	-58 🔴	47.6
Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	204	170	+34 🟢	55.1
Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	204	168	+36 🟢	55.4
Christian Kirk	WR	HOU	204	271	-67 🔴	46.8
Justin Fields	QB	NYJ	206	268	-62 🔴	47.1
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	207	93	+114 🟢	65.3

*Data sourced from DynastyProcess (FantasyPros ECR aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*