The full weekly ADP vs Model breakdown. Our model ranks every player using Statcast data (xwOBA, barrel rate, exit velo, bat speed) combined with age curves and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Christopher Morel(MIA, LF)

ADP: 568 → Model: #112 — Gap: +456

Score: 71.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.5

2.Sean Burke(CWS, SP)

ADP: 551 → Model: #125 — Gap: +426

Score: 70.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 64.8

3.Jake Bauers(MIL, 1B)

ADP: 535 → Model: #146 — Gap: +389

Score: 68.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.3

4.Gregory Soto(PIT, RP)

ADP: 565 → Model: #189 — Gap: +376

Score: 65.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 61.8

5.Jesus Sanchez(TOR, LF)

ADP: 423 → Model: #54 — Gap: +369

Score: 76.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 72.0

6.Jordan Walker(STL, LF)

ADP: 413 → Model: #63 — Gap: +350

Score: 75.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 66.0

7.Didier Fuentes(ATL, SP)

ADP: 490 → Model: #149 — Gap: +341

Score: 68.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 51.4

8.Jared Jones(PIT, SP)

ADP: 456 → Model: #118 — Gap: +338

Score: 70.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 64.8

9.Dominic Canzone(SEA, LF)

ADP: 375 → Model: #42 — Gap: +333

Score: 77.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 74.5

10.Brandon Marsh(PHI, LF)

ADP: 422 → Model: #93 — Gap: +329

Score: 72.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 67.9

11.River Ryan(LAD, SP)

ADP: 539 → Model: #210 — Gap: +329

Score: 64.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.5

12.Camilo Doval(NYY, RP)

ADP: 425 → Model: #103 — Gap: +322

Score: 71.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 67.8

13.Gabe Speier(SEA, RP)

ADP: 519 → Model: #198 — Gap: +321

Score: 65.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.5

14.Josh Bell(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 411 → Model: #96 — Gap: +315

Score: 72.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 74.7

15.Kody Clemens(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 466 → Model: #151 — Gap: +315

Score: 68.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.1

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players being drafted much higher than our model suggests they should be.

1.Will Smith(LAD, null)

ADP: 98 → Model: #1871 — Gap: -1773

Score: 17.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 16.6

2.Spencer Jones(NYY, CF)

ADP: 421 → Model: #1690 — Gap: -1269

Score: 23.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

3.Javier Baez(DET, 2B)

ADP: 345 → Model: #1528 — Gap: -1183

Score: 30.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 23.6

4.Jesus Rodriguez(SF, null)

ADP: 495 → Model: #1669 — Gap: -1174

Score: 24.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

5.Lucas Giolito(null, null)

ADP: 404 → Model: #1577 — Gap: -1173

Score: 28.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.4

6.Bryce Eldridge(SF, 1B)

ADP: 342 → Model: #1502 — Gap: -1160

Score: 31.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

7.Harry Ford(WSH, null)

ADP: 436 → Model: #1589 — Gap: -1153

Score: 27.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

8.Clay Holmes(NYM, SP)

ADP: 270 → Model: #1409 — Gap: -1139

Score: 35.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 21.0

9.Nolan Arenado(ARI, 3B)

ADP: 325 → Model: #1460 — Gap: -1135

Score: 33.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 14.0

10.Nick Castellanos(SD, RF)

ADP: 313 → Model: #1447 — Gap: -1134

Score: 33.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 29.4

11.Zach McKinstry(DET, 3B)

ADP: 300 → Model: #1427 — Gap: -1127

Score: 34.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 23.6

12.Miguel Rojas(LAD, 2B)

ADP: 474 → Model: #1590 — Gap: -1116

Score: 27.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 23.5

13.Cody Ponce(TOR, SP)

ADP: 274 → Model: #1387 — Gap: -1113

Score: 36.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

14.Jake Mangum(PIT, LF)

ADP: 407 → Model: #1519 — Gap: -1112

Score: 31.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.2

15.Shane McClanahan(TB, SP)

ADP: 207 → Model: #1308 — Gap: -1101

Score: 38.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

📊 Full ADP vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of the top 300 ADP players matched against our model rankings.

PlayerPosTeamADPModelGapScore
Shohei OhtaniSPLAD14-385.9
Aaron JudgeLFNYY29-784.0
Bobby Witt Jr.SSKC418-1482.0
Juan SotoLFNYM523-1880.7
Jose Ramirez3BCLE6274-268 🔴60.3
Ronald Acuna Jr.RFATL728-21 🔴80.0
Tarik SkubalSPDET812-483.2
Elly De La CruzSSCIN910-183.3
Paul SkenesSPPIT1055-45 🔴76.0
Julio RodriguezCFSEA1145-34 🔴76.9
Kyle TuckerRFLAD1251-39 🔴76.5
Garrett CrochetSPBOS138+584.2
Fernando Tatis Jr.RFSD1427-1380.1
Corbin CarrollCFARI1529-1479.6
Cal RaleighCSEA1638-22 🔴78.1
Gunnar HendersonSSBAL1782-65 🔴73.4
Junior Caminero3BTB1826-880.2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1BTOR1932-1379.3
Nick Kurtz1BATH207+1384.9
Kyle SchwarberLFPHI2122-181.1
Jackson ChourioLFMIL22106-84 🔴71.6
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2BNYY23142-119 🔴69.1
Yoshinobu YamamotoSPLAD2448-24 🔴76.7
Pete Alonso1BBAL2547-22 🔴76.7
Francisco LindorSSNYM2691-65 🔴72.8
Ketel Marte2BARI2724+380.6
Cristopher SanchezSPPHI285+23 🟢85.5
Trea TurnerSSPHI29624-595 🔴49.6
Yordan AlvarezLFHOU3034-478.7
Manny Machado3BSD31109-78 🔴71.5
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCFCHC3294-62 🔴72.6
James WoodLFWSH331+32 🟢89.9
Zach NetoSSLAA343+31 🟢86.3
Bryan WooSPSEA352+33 🟢86.6
Matt Olson1BATL36124-88 🔴70.3
Hunter BrownSPHOU3717+20 🟢82.1
Bryce Harper1BPHI38123-85 🔴70.4
Logan GilbertSPSEA3919+20 🟢81.8
Chris SaleSPATL40213-173 🔴64.3
Brent RookerLFATH41193-152 🔴65.1
Rafael Devers1BSF4264-22 🔴75.1
Mason MillerRPSD4362-1975.3
Wyatt LangfordLFTEX4497-53 🔴72.4
Max FriedSPNYY45132-87 🔴69.9
Brice Turang2BMIL4633+1379.2
Logan WebbSPSF4737+1078.2
Mookie BettsSSLAD48239-191 🔴62.8
Roman AnthonyLFBOS4925+24 🟢80.3
Edwin DiazRPLAD50158-108 🔴67.9
Cole RagansSPKC51199-148 🔴64.9
Freddie Freeman1BLAD52340-288 🔴57.8
Jacob deGromSPTEX53179-126 🔴66.2
Cody BellingerLFNYY54175-121 🔴66.3
Austin Riley3BATL55110-55 🔴71.1
William ContrerasCMIL56122-66 🔴70.4
Freddy PeraltaSPNYM57100-43 🔴72.2
Josh Naylor1BSEA58289-231 🔴59.5
Geraldo PerdomoSSARI5950+976.5
Jarren DuranLFBOS6061-175.5
Cade SmithRPCLE6183-22 🔴73.1
Jhoan DuranRPPHI6235+27 🟢78.6
Riley GreeneLFDET63117-54 🔴70.6
Maikel Garcia2BKC64133-69 🔴69.9
George KirbySPSEA65304-239 🔴59.0
Ben RiceCNYY6639+27 🟢77.9
Jackson MerrillCFSD6778-1173.6
Andres MunozRPSEA6885-1773.0
Shea LangeliersnullATH6941+28 🟢77.5
CJ AbramsSSWSH70449-379 🔴53.6
Dylan CeaseSPTOR7130+41 🟢79.6
Byron BuxtonCFMIN7236+36 🟢78.6
Joe RyanSPMIN7360+1375.5
Jesus LuzardoSPPHI7472+274.4
Hunter GoodmanCCOL75271-196 🔴60.6
Framber ValdezSPDET76150-74 🔴68.6
Vinnie Pasquantino1BKC77252-175 🔴61.5
George SpringerLFTOR7857+21 🟢75.8
Kyle BradishSPBAL79373-294 🔴56.4
Tyler Soderstrom1BATH80163-83 🔴67.7
David BednarRPNYY81383-302 🔴56.0
Randy ArozarenaLFSEA8273+974.2
Corey SeagerSSTEX8311+72 🟢83.3
Aroldis ChapmanRPBOS84229-145 🔴63.4
Bo BichetteSSNYM85282-197 🔴59.8
Eugenio Suarez3BCIN86113-27 🔴71.0
Oneil CruzCFPIT8771+1674.5
Nick PivettaSPSD89294-205 🔴59.4
Alex Bregman3BCHC90129-39 🔴70.0
Devin WilliamsRPNYM91186-95 🔴65.5
Christian YelichLFMIL92127-35 🔴70.1
Nico Hoerner2BCHC93275-182 🔴60.3
Nolan McLeanSPNYM94202-108 🔴64.7
Eury PerezSPMIA9599-472.3
Seiya SuzukiLFCHC9652+44 🟢76.2
Salvador PerezCKC97108-1171.5
Will SmithnullLAD981871-1773 🔴17.7
Kevin GausmanSPTOR9979+20 🟢73.5
Jose Altuve2BHOU100971-871 🔴43.9
Michael Harris IICFATL10180+21 🟢73.4
Michael Busch1BCHC10216+86 🟢82.2
Sonny GraySPBOS103588-485 🔴50.4
Drake BaldwinnullATL10421+83 🟢81.5
Jeremy PenaSSHOU105169-64 🔴67.1
Willy AdamesSSSF106308-202 🔴58.9
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMIL107102+572.0
Spencer StriderSPATL1081088-980 🔴42.3
Teoscar HernandezLFLAD109412-303 🔴55.0
Agustin RamirezCMIA110162-52 🔴67.7
Luke Keaschall2BMIN111411-300 🔴55.1
Tyler GlasnowSPLAD112187-75 🔴65.4
Raisel IglesiasRPATL113232-119 🔴63.4
Chase BurnsSPCIN114319-205 🔴58.5
Trevor StorySSBOS115265-150 🔴61.1
Kyle StowersLFMIA11613+103 🟢83.1
Taylor WardLFBAL117216-99 🔴64.1
Luis Robert Jr.CFNYM11856+62 🟢75.8
Josh HaderRPHOU119207-88 🔴64.4
Jo AdellCFLAA12084+36 🟢73.0
Cam SchlittlerSPNYY121121070.4
Blake SnellSPLAD122654-532 🔴48.8
Nick LodoloSPCIN12374+49 🟢74.1
Matt Chapman3BSF124185-61 🔴65.5
Brandon WoodruffSPMIL125182-57 🔴65.6
Yandy Diaz1BTB126276-150 🔴60.1
Zack WheelerSPPHI12789+38 🟢72.8
Ozzie Albies2BATL128307-179 🔴58.9
Brandon NimmoLFTEX12975+54 🟢73.9
Carlos EstevezRPKC130838-708 🔴45.8
Nathan EovaldiSPTEX131214-83 🔴64.2
Ryan PepiotSPTB132884-752 🔴45.2
Michael KingSPSD133278-145 🔴60.0
Emmet SheehanSPLAD134205-71 🔴64.6
Jeff HoffmanRPTOR135166-31 🔴67.5
Lawrence ButlerCFATH136471-335 🔴53.1
Emilio PaganRPCIN137460-323 🔴53.4
Jakob MarseeLFMIA138144-669.0
Andy PagesLFLAD139159-20 🔴67.9
Luis CastilloSPSEA140301-161 🔴59.1
Daniel PalenciaRPCHC14177+64 🟢73.8
Ryan HelsleyRPBAL142114+28 🟢70.8
Yainer DiazCHOU143306-163 🔴59.0
Gavin WilliamsSPCLE144284-140 🔴59.7
Noelvi Marte3BCIN145571-426 🔴50.7
MacKenzie GoreSPTEX14698+48 🟢72.3
Sandy AlcantaraSPMIA147327-180 🔴58.2
Ian HappLFCHC14844+104 🟢76.9
Steven KwanLFCLE149946-797 🔴44.3
Trevor RogersSPBAL150220-70 🔴63.9
Hunter GreeneSPCIN15167+84 🟢74.7
Bubba ChandlerSPPIT152161-967.8
Adley RutschmannullBAL15370+83 🟢74.6
Pete FairbanksRPMIA154145+968.9
Ceddanne Rafaela2BBOS155477-322 🔴52.8
Brandon Lowe2BPIT15659+97 🟢75.7
Robbie RaySPSF157572-415 🔴50.7
Trevor MegillRPMIL158140+1869.5
Xavier Edwards2BMIA159666-507 🔴48.6
Shota ImanagaSPCHC160874-714 🔴45.3
Drew RasmussenSPTB161423-262 🔴54.5
Dansby SwansonSSCHC162221-59 🔴63.9
Kenley JansenRPDET163331-168 🔴58.0
Ranger SuarezSPBOS164374-210 🔴56.4
Jacob WilsonSSATH1651002-837 🔴43.5
Tatsuya ImaiSPHOU166135+31 🟢69.7
Kazuma Okamoto1BTOR167233-66 🔴63.3
Mike TroutCFLAA16868+100 🟢74.7
Chandler SimpsonLFTB1691027-858 🔴43.2
Alec Burleson1BSTL17020+150 🟢81.5
Matt McLain2BCIN171462-291 🔴53.3
Tanner BibeeSPCLE172285-113 🔴59.7
Jackson Holliday2BBAL173407-234 🔴55.3
Trey YesavageSPTOR174361-187 🔴56.9
Ivan HerreraCSTL175168+767.2
Alejandro KirknullTOR17640+136 🟢77.6
Jac Caglianone1BKC177223-46 🔴63.8
Bryan ReynoldsLFPIT178225-47 🔴63.6
Spencer Torkelson1BDET179139+40 🟢69.5
Willson Contreras1BBOS180197-1765.0
Colson Montgomery3BCWS18131+150 🟢79.5
Kris BubicSPKC182203-21 🔴64.6
Bryson Stott2BPHI183296-113 🔴59.3
Cade HortonSPCHC184405-221 🔴55.3
Munetaka Murakami1BCWS185130+55 🟢70.0
Jack FlahertySPDET1871202-1015 🔴40.5
Edward CabreraSPCHC188164+24 🟢67.6
Sal Stewart1BCIN189154+35 🟢68.4
Dennis SantanaRPPIT190342-152 🔴57.6
Carlos RodonSPNYY191561-370 🔴50.9
Daulton VarshoLFTOR192190+265.3
Abner UribeRPMIL19346+147 🟢76.7
Christian Walker1BHOU194155+39 🟢68.0
Isaac Paredes3BHOU195454-259 🔴53.5
Ryan WalkerRPSF196256-60 🔴61.3
Matthew BoydSPCHC197315-118 🔴58.7
Andrew AbbottSPCIN198178+20 🟢66.3
Daylen LileLFWSH199241-42 🔴62.7
Jorge Polanco2BNYM200281-81 🔴59.9
Shane BazSPBAL20190+111 🟢72.8
Jose Caballero2BNYY202969-767 🔴43.9
Addison Barger3BTOR203180+23 🟢65.9
Zac GallenSPARI2041249-1045 🔴39.4
Marcus Semien2BNYM205961-756 🔴44.0
Gerrit ColeSPNYY206332-126 🔴58.0
Shane McClanahanSPTB2071308-1101 🔴38.2
Robert SuarezRPATL208255-47 🔴61.3
Aaron NolaSPPHI209492-283 🔴52.3
Sal FrelickLFMIL210320-110 🔴58.5
Gleyber Torres2BDET211176+35 🟢66.3
Jonathan Aranda1BTB2126+206 🟢85.2
Wilyer AbreuLFBOS21353+160 🟢76.0
Heliot RamosLFSF214174+40 🟢66.3
Brenton DoyleCFCOL215204+1164.6
Gabriel MorenonullARI216368-152 🔴56.6
Ezequiel TovarSSCOL21795+122 🟢72.6
Adolis GarciaRFPHI218455-237 🔴53.5
JJ Wetherholt2BSTL219138+81 🟢69.5
Royce Lewis3BMIN22086+134 🟢72.9
Brendan Donovan2BSEA22143+178 🟢77.1
Griffin JaxRPTB222504-282 🔴52.1
Ramon LaureanoLFSD22358+165 🟢75.8
Jordan Westburg2BBAL224115+109 🟢70.8
Samuel BasallonullBAL225314-89 🔴58.7
Alec Bohm1BPHI22681+145 🟢73.4
Caleb Durbin2BBOS227932-705 🔴44.5
Carter JensennullKC228260-32 🔴61.2
Merrill KellySPARI2291063-834 🔴42.7
Kerry CarpenterLFDET230208+22 🟢64.4
Max Muncy3BLAD231237-663.0
Trent GrishamCFNYY23215+217 🟢82.4
Luis Arraez1BSF233596-363 🔴50.2
J.T. RealmutonullPHI234722-488 🔴47.7
Bryan AbreuRPHOU235243-862.6
Giancarlo StantonLFNYY236181+55 🟢65.6
Carlos Correa3BHOU237413-176 🔴54.9
Austin WellsnullNYY238551-313 🔴51.1
TJ FriedlLFCIN239815-576 🔴46.1
Joe MusgroveSPSD2401270-1030 🔴38.9
Ryne NelsonSPARI241227+1463.5
Kyle Manzardo1BCLE242343-101 🔴57.6
Kodai SengaSPNYM243473-230 🔴52.9
Dylan CrewsCFWSH244384-140 🔴56.0
Jack LeiterSPTEX2451199-954 🔴40.6
Noah CameronSPKC246936-690 🔴44.4
Roki SasakiSPLAD247419-172 🔴54.5
Kevin McGonigleSSDET248131+117 🟢70.0
Jung Hoo LeeCFSF249685-436 🔴48.3
Xander BogaertsSSSD250793-543 🔴46.4
Francisco AlvareznullNYM25166+185 🟢74.7
Colton CowserLFBAL252128+124 🟢70.1
Seranthony DominguezRPCWS253515-262 🔴51.9
Luis Garcia2BWSH2541103-849 🔴42.1
Ernie Clement1BTOR2551051-796 🔴42.8
Jordan BeckLFCOL256312-56 🔴58.7
Dillon DinglernullDET25788+169 🟢72.8
Shane SmithSPCWS258248+1062.2
Shane BieberSPTOR259797-538 🔴46.4
Kyle TeelnullCWS260417-157 🔴54.6
Logan O'HoppenullLAA261394-133 🔴55.6
Jake Burger1BTEX26265+197 🟢74.9
Andrew Vaughn1BMIL263192+71 🟢65.2
Connelly EarlySPBOS264160+104 🟢67.9
Yusei KikuchiSPLAA2651220-955 🔴40.0
Otto Lopez2BMIA266219+47 🟢64.0
Spencer Steer1BCIN267804-537 🔴46.3
Ryan WeathersSPNYY268404-136 🔴55.3
Chase DeLauterCFCLE26914+255 🟢82.9
Clay HolmesSPNYM2701409-1139 🔴35.6
Braxton AshcraftSPPIT271153+118 🟢68.5
Tyler StephensonnullCIN272292-20 🔴59.4
Ryan O'Hearn1BPIT273196+77 🟢65.0
Cody PonceSPTOR2741387-1113 🔴36.2
Bryce MillerSPSEA275742-467 🔴47.4
Mike BurrowsSPHOU276400-124 🔴55.3
Casey MizeSPDET277344-67 🔴57.6
Grayson RodriguezSPLAA278134+144 🟢69.8
Justin CrawfordCFPHI279206+73 🟢64.5
Bailey OberSPMIN2801287-1007 🔴38.6
Joey CantilloSPCLE281195+86 🟢65.1
Willi Castro2BCOL282657-375 🔴48.8
Marcell OzunaDHPIT283433-150 🔴54.2
Mark Vientos3BNYM284580-296 🔴50.6
Miguel Vargas1BCWS285172+113 🟢66.5
Evan CarterLFTEX286403-117 🔴55.3
Sean ManaeaSPNYM287914-627 🔴44.7
Masyn WinnSSSTL288519-231 🔴51.8
Mickey MoniakLFCOL28976+213 🟢73.8
Andrew PainterSPPHI2901239-949 🔴39.7
Robert GarciaRPTEX291359-68 🔴57.0
Jasson DominguezLFNYY292559-267 🔴50.9
Spencer SchwellenbachSPATL293157+136 🟢67.9
Quinn PriesterSPMIL2941055-761 🔴42.8
Logan HendersonSPMIL295453-158 🔴53.5
Brady SingerSPCIN296736-440 🔴47.5
Carson BengeCFNYM297272+25 🟢60.5
Jordan Lawlar3BARI298366-68 🔴56.7
Jose SorianoSPLAA29969+230 🟢74.7
Zach McKinstry3BDET3001427-1127 🔴34.9
Brayan BelloSPBOS301941-640 🔴44.4
Ryan JeffersCMIN302546-244 🔴51.2
Parker MessickSPCLE303240+63 🟢62.7

*Data sourced from FantasyPros (NFBC, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*