The full weekly ADP vs Model breakdown. Our model ranks every player using Statcast data (xwOBA, barrel rate, exit velo, bat speed) combined with age curves and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Christopher Morel(MIA, LF)

ADP: 574 → Model: #112 — Gap: +462

Score: 71.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.6

2.Jake Bauers(MIL, 1B)

ADP: 509 → Model: #140 — Gap: +369

Score: 68.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.2

3.Davis Schneider(TOR, 2B)

ADP: 495 → Model: #135 — Gap: +360

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 60.3

4.Gabe Speier(SEA, RP)

ADP: 515 → Model: #163 — Gap: +352

Score: 67.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 67.7

5.Jared Jones(PIT, SP)

ADP: 454 → Model: #121 — Gap: +333

Score: 70.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 64.8

6.Kody Clemens(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 465 → Model: #136 — Gap: +329

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.8

7.Louis Varland(TOR, RP)

ADP: 467 → Model: #142 — Gap: +325

Score: 68.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 60.8

8.Phil Maton(CHC, RP)

ADP: 586 → Model: #262 — Gap: +324

Score: 60.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 59.3

9.Dominic Canzone(SEA, LF)

ADP: 374 → Model: #59 — Gap: +315

Score: 76.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 73.3

10.River Ryan(LAD, SP)

ADP: 544 → Model: #235 — Gap: +309

Score: 62.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.5

11.Eduard Bazardo(SEA, RP)

ADP: 567 → Model: #258 — Gap: +309

Score: 60.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 54.9

12.Jesus Sanchez(TOR, LF)

ADP: 423 → Model: #124 — Gap: +299

Score: 70.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.1

13.Brandon Marsh(PHI, LF)

ADP: 422 → Model: #130 — Gap: +292

Score: 69.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.2

14.Bryan King(HOU, RP)

ADP: 529 → Model: #238 — Gap: +291

Score: 61.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 55.4

15.Josh Bell(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 406 → Model: #134 — Gap: +272

Score: 69.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 69.0

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players being drafted much higher than our model suggests they should be.

1.Cody Ponce(TOR, SP)

ADP: 278 → Model: #1652 — Gap: -1374

Score: 29.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

2.Spencer Jones(NYY, CF)

ADP: 418 → Model: #1783 — Gap: -1365

Score: 23.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

3.Lucas Giolito(null, null)

ADP: 395 → Model: #1671 — Gap: -1276

Score: 27.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.4

4.Jesus Rodriguez(SF, null)

ADP: 498 → Model: #1764 — Gap: -1266

Score: 24.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

5.Jose Berrios(TOR, SP)

ADP: 416 → Model: #1618 — Gap: -1202

Score: 30.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.2

6.Javier Baez(DET, 2B)

ADP: 344 → Model: #1520 — Gap: -1176

Score: 33.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 24.7

7.Clayton Kershaw(null, null)

ADP: 494 → Model: #1666 — Gap: -1172

Score: 28.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 38.5

8.Jose Altuve(HOU, 2B)

ADP: 99 → Model: #1252 — Gap: -1153

Score: 39.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 27.2

9.Miguel Rojas(LAD, 2B)

ADP: 475 → Model: #1623 — Gap: -1148

Score: 30.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 29.3

10.Jake Mangum(PIT, LF)

ADP: 401 → Model: #1544 — Gap: -1143

Score: 32.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 22.0

11.Clay Holmes(NYM, SP)

ADP: 272 → Model: #1413 — Gap: -1141

Score: 36.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 21.0

12.Nolan Arenado(ARI, 3B)

ADP: 323 → Model: #1460 — Gap: -1137

Score: 35.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.8

13.Shane McClanahan(TB, SP)

ADP: 213 → Model: #1337 — Gap: -1124

Score: 38.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

14.Jeffrey Springs(ATH, SP)

ADP: 358 → Model: #1473 — Gap: -1115

Score: 35.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.3

15.Seth Lugo(KC, SP)

ADP: 311 → Model: #1418 — Gap: -1107

Score: 36.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 29.5

📊 Full ADP vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of the top 300 ADP players matched against our model rankings.

PlayerPosTeamADPModelGapScore
Shohei OhtaniSPLAD11091.9
Aaron JudgeLFNYY214-1286.3
Bobby Witt Jr.SSKC47-389.1
Juan SotoLFNYM54+190.6
Jose Ramirez3BCLE6229-223 🔴62.4
Ronald Acuna Jr.RFATL75+290.1
Tarik SkubalSPDET89-187.5
Elly De La CruzSSCIN939-30 🔴79.5
Paul SkenesSPPIT106+490.0
Julio RodriguezCFSEA1127-1683.3
Kyle TuckerRFLAD1247-35 🔴78.5
Garrett CrochetSPBOS1316-385.8
Fernando Tatis Jr.RFSD1411+386.6
Corbin CarrollCFARI153+1290.8
Cal RaleighCSEA1621-584.3
Gunnar HendersonSSBAL1732-1581.8
Junior Caminero3BTB1820-284.6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1BTOR1910+986.8
Nick Kurtz1BATH202+1891.2
Kyle SchwarberLFPHI2125-483.6
Jackson ChourioLFMIL22104-82 🔴71.6
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2BNYY2351-28 🔴77.9
Francisco LindorSSNYM24105-81 🔴71.5
Pete Alonso1BBAL2518+785.0
Yoshinobu YamamotoSPLAD2646-20 🔴78.6
Ketel Marte2BARI2736-980.3
Cristopher SanchezSPPHI2879-51 🔴74.1
Trea TurnerSSPHI29287-258 🔴58.5
Manny Machado3BSD3058-28 🔴76.7
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCFCHC3156-25 🔴76.9
Yordan AlvarezLFHOU3249-1778.2
James WoodLFWSH338+25 🟢87.6
Zach NetoSSLAA3423+1184.0
Bryan WooSPSEA3534+181.3
Hunter BrownSPHOU3633+381.5
Matt Olson1BATL3735+281.0
Bryce Harper1BPHI3855-1777.3
Chris SaleSPATL39111-72 🔴71.1
Logan GilbertSPSEA40161-121 🔴67.6
Brent RookerLFATH4148-778.3
Rafael Devers1BSF4219+23 🟢84.9
Mason MillerRPSD4364-21 🔴75.4
Wyatt LangfordLFTEX4415+29 🟢86.0
Max FriedSPNYY45224-179 🔴62.6
Brice Turang2BMIL4650-478.0
Mookie BettsSSLAD47367-320 🔴55.1
Logan WebbSPSF48202-154 🔴64.1
Edwin DiazRPLAD49114-65 🔴70.9
Roman AnthonyLFBOS5013+37 🟢86.5
Jacob deGromSPTEX51174-123 🔴66.2
Cole RagansSPKC5282-30 🔴73.9
Freddie Freeman1BLAD53158-105 🔴67.8
Cody BellingerLFNYY54253-199 🔴61.1
William ContrerasCMIL55154-99 🔴67.9
Freddy PeraltaSPNYM56193-137 🔴64.7
Austin Riley3BATL5729+28 🟢82.9
Josh Naylor1BSEA58221-163 🔴62.7
Andres MunozRPSEA5966-775.1
Jarren DuranLFBOS6053+777.5
Jackson MerrillCFSD6124+37 🟢84.0
Geraldo PerdomoSSARI62203-141 🔴64.0
Jhoan DuranRPPHI6398-35 🔴72.1
Riley GreeneLFDET6437+27 🟢80.1
Cade SmithRPCLE6573-874.5
Ben RiceCNYY6612+54 🟢86.5
George KirbySPSEA67189-122 🔴64.9
Maikel Garcia2BKC68119-51 🔴70.5
Shea LangeliersnullATH6971-274.8
CJ AbramsSSWSH70218-148 🔴63.2
Dylan CeaseSPTOR71123-52 🔴70.3
Byron BuxtonCFMIN7244+28 🟢78.7
Jesus LuzardoSPPHI7362+1175.7
Hunter GoodmanCCOL7481-774.0
Joe RyanSPMIN7583-873.8
Framber ValdezSPDET76450-374 🔴52.7
George SpringerLFTOR7757+20 🟢76.7
Vinnie Pasquantino1BKC7863+1575.5
Kyle BradishSPBAL79227-148 🔴62.5
Tyler Soderstrom1BATH8052+28 🟢77.7
Randy ArozarenaLFSEA8176+574.4
David BednarRPNYY82127-45 🔴70.1
Aroldis ChapmanRPBOS83171-88 🔴66.5
Corey SeagerSSTEX8431+53 🟢81.9
Oneil CruzCFPIT8530+55 🟢82.8
Eugenio Suarez3BCIN86147-61 🔴68.4
Bo BichetteSSNYM8789-273.3
Alex Bregman3BCHC89217-128 🔴63.3
Nick PivettaSPSD90243-153 🔴61.5
Devin WilliamsRPNYM91188-97 🔴65.0
Christian YelichLFMIL92199-107 🔴64.3
Seiya SuzukiLFCHC9338+55 🟢79.8
Nico Hoerner2BCHC94495-401 🔴51.7
Nolan McLeanSPNYM95185-90 🔴65.2
Eury PerezSPMIA96157-61 🔴67.8
Salvador PerezCKC97108-1171.3
Will SmithnullLAD9842+56 🟢78.9
Jose Altuve2BHOU991252-1153 🔴39.9
Kevin GausmanSPTOR100457-357 🔴52.6
Michael Harris IICFATL101153-52 🔴68.0
Michael Busch1BCHC10217+85 🟢85.5
Drake BaldwinnullATL10345+58 🟢78.7
Sonny GraySPBOS104196-92 🔴64.4
Jeremy PenaSSHOU105132-27 🔴69.6
Spencer StriderSPATL106726-620 🔴47.2
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMIL107159-52 🔴67.7
Tyler GlasnowSPLAD108524-416 🔴51.0
Agustin RamirezCMIA10996+1372.5
Teoscar HernandezLFLAD110139-29 🔴68.9
Chase BurnsSPCIN111283-172 🔴58.9
Willy AdamesSSSF11293+1972.8
Kyle StowersLFMIA11326+87 🟢83.4
Raisel IglesiasRPATL114209-95 🔴63.6
Trevor StorySSBOS115216-101 🔴63.3
Luke Keaschall2BMIN116263-147 🔴60.1
Blake SnellSPLAD117581-464 🔴50.0
Josh HaderRPHOU118149-31 🔴68.2
Taylor WardLFBAL11988+31 🟢73.4
Brandon NimmoLFTEX120118+270.6
Luis Robert Jr.CFNYM121164-43 🔴67.5
Jo AdellCFLAA12222+100 🟢84.3
Brandon WoodruffSPMIL123180-57 🔴65.8
Cam SchlittlerSPNYY124246-122 🔴61.3
Matt Chapman3BSF12565+60 🟢75.2
Yandy Diaz1BTB126107+1971.3
Zack WheelerSPPHI12792+35 🟢72.8
Nick LodoloSPCIN12878+50 🟢74.1
Ozzie Albies2BATL129689-560 🔴47.9
Carlos EstevezRPKC130294-164 🔴58.2
Hunter GreeneSPCIN13170+61 🟢74.8
Nathan EovaldiSPTEX132106+26 🟢71.3
Ryan PepiotSPTB133469-336 🔴52.3
Michael KingSPSD134365-231 🔴55.1
Trey YesavageSPTOR135237-102 🔴62.0
Emmet SheehanSPLAD136133+369.6
Jeff HoffmanRPTOR137372-235 🔴54.9
Jakob MarseeLFMIA138137+169.2
Andy PagesLFLAD139234-95 🔴62.1
Lawrence ButlerCFATH140192-52 🔴64.7
Luis CastilloSPSEA141281-140 🔴59.1
Emilio PaganRPCIN142274-132 🔴59.7
Yainer DiazCHOU143167-24 🔴66.8
Ryan HelsleyRPBAL144369-225 🔴55.0
Noelvi Marte3BCIN145285-140 🔴58.7
Gavin WilliamsSPCLE146644-498 🔴48.6
Daniel PalenciaRPCHC147141+668.8
MacKenzie GoreSPTEX148603-455 🔴49.5
Ian HappLFCHC14974+75 🟢74.5
Sandy AlcantaraSPMIA150933-783 🔴44.2
Steven KwanLFCLE151851-700 🔴45.4
Trevor RogersSPBAL15261+91 🟢75.9
Dansby SwansonSSCHC15391+62 🟢73.1
Drew RasmussenSPTB154198-44 🔴64.3
Adley RutschmannullBAL155220-65 🔴62.8
Bubba ChandlerSPPIT156150+668.2
Pete FairbanksRPMIA157273-116 🔴59.7
Brandon Lowe2BPIT158103+55 🟢71.6
Ceddanne Rafaela2BBOS159236-77 🔴62.1
Robbie RaySPSF160454-294 🔴52.7
Trevor MegillRPMIL161266-105 🔴60.1
Xavier Edwards2BMIA162840-678 🔴45.5
Kenley JansenRPDET163848-685 🔴45.4
Ranger SuarezSPBOS164341-177 🔴56.4
Jacob WilsonSSATH165776-611 🔴46.4
Shota ImanagaSPCHC1661254-1088 🔴39.8
Mike TroutCFLAA167101+66 🟢71.9
Tatsuya ImaiSPHOU1681241-1073 🔴40.1
Chandler SimpsonLFTB169790-621 🔴46.1
Kazuma Okamoto1BTOR1701157-987 🔴41.3
Alec Burleson1BSTL171131+40 🟢69.8
Jackson Holliday2BBAL172385-213 🔴54.6
Tanner BibeeSPCLE173587-414 🔴49.9
Ivan HerreraCSTL17441+133 🟢79.1
Alejandro KirknullTOR17580+95 🟢74.0
Bryan ReynoldsLFPIT17669+107 🟢74.9
Spencer Torkelson1BDET17743+134 🟢78.8
Colson Montgomery3BCWS17860+118 🟢76.5
Jac Caglianone1BKC179212-33 🔴63.5
Willson Contreras1BBOS180102+78 🟢71.7
Bryson Stott2BPHI181452-271 🔴52.7
Matt McLain2BCIN182298-116 🔴58.0
Kris BubicSPKC183195-1264.7
Jonathan Aranda1BTB18428+156 🟢83.0
Munetaka Murakami1BCWS185796-611 🔴46.0
Cade HortonSPCHC186296-110 🔴58.1
Edward CabreraSPCHC187162+25 🟢67.6
Jack FlahertySPDET188451-263 🔴52.7
Carlos RodonSPNYY189863-674 🔴45.2
Dennis SantanaRPPIT190109+81 🟢71.3
Isaac Paredes3BHOU192510-318 🔴51.3
Christian Walker1BHOU193187+665.0
Sal Stewart1BCIN194166+28 🟢67.5
Daulton VarshoLFTOR19594+101 🟢72.7
Abner UribeRPMIL196143+53 🟢68.8
Andrew AbbottSPCIN197206-963.9
Matthew BoydSPCHC198646-448 🔴48.5
Ryan WalkerRPSF199231-32 🔴62.3
Daylen LileLFWSH200178+22 🟢66.0
Jorge Polanco2BNYM201148+53 🟢68.3
Marcus Semien2BNYM202444-242 🔴52.8
Addison Barger3BTOR20372+131 🟢74.5
Shane BazSPBAL204316-112 🔴57.2
Dylan CrewsCFWSH205346-141 🔴56.1
Jose Caballero2BNYY2061026-820 🔴42.9
Zac GallenSPARI2071141-934 🔴41.5
Robert SuarezRPATL208242-34 🔴61.7
Gleyber Torres2BDET20968+141 🟢75.0
Gerrit ColeSPNYY210299-89 🔴58.0
Sal FrelickLFMIL211803-592 🔴45.9
Aaron NolaSPPHI212392-180 🔴54.2
Shane McClanahanSPTB2131337-1124 🔴38.2
Heliot RamosLFSF21467+147 🟢75.0
Brenton DoyleCFCOL215177+38 🟢66.1
Wilyer AbreuLFBOS21685+131 🟢73.8
Gabriel MorenonullARI217200+1764.3
Royce Lewis3BMIN218282-64 🔴59.0
Jordan Westburg2BBAL219116+103 🟢70.8
Ezequiel TovarSSCOL220126+94 🟢70.2
Adolis GarciaRFPHI221179+42 🟢65.9
Brendan Donovan2BSEA223146+77 🟢68.4
Ramon LaureanoLFSD22475+149 🟢74.5
Griffin JaxRPTB225156+69 🟢67.8
Alec Bohm1BPHI226208+1863.8
Merrill KellySPARI227604-377 🔴49.5
Carter JensennullKC228255-27 🔴61.0
Max Muncy3BLAD229445-216 🔴52.8
Kerry CarpenterLFDET23087+143 🟢73.4
Samuel BasallonullBAL231277-46 🔴59.5
Trent GrishamCFNYY23240+192 🟢79.4
J.T. RealmutonullPHI233421-188 🔴53.6
Caleb Durbin2BBOS234763-529 🔴46.6
Luis Arraez1BSF235875-640 🔴45.0
Joe MusgroveSPSD236965-729 🔴43.8
Austin WellsnullNYY237295-58 🔴58.1
Carlos Correa3BHOU238241-361.7
Giancarlo StantonLFNYY239175+64 🟢66.1
TJ FriedlLFCIN240989-749 🔴43.5
Bryan AbreuRPHOU241113+128 🟢71.0
Otto Lopez2BMIA242205+37 🟢63.9
Kyle Manzardo1BCLE243176+67 🟢66.1
Noah CameronSPKC244920-676 🔴44.4
Jack LeiterSPTEX245194+51 🟢64.7
Roki SasakiSPLAD246407-161 🔴54.0
Ryne NelsonSPARI247204+43 🟢64.0
Jung Hoo LeeCFSF248547-299 🔴50.6
Francisco AlvareznullNYM249100+149 🟢71.9
Xander BogaertsSSSD250358-108 🔴55.4
Kodai SengaSPNYM252440-188 🔴52.9
Colton CowserLFBAL253191+62 🟢64.8
Shane BieberSPTOR254556-302 🔴50.4
Seranthony DominguezRPCWS255261-660.2
Ernie Clement1BTOR2561137-881 🔴41.6
Jordan BeckLFCOL257286-29 🔴58.6
Kyle TeelnullCWS258405-147 🔴54.1
Shane SmithSPCWS259240+1961.7
Dillon DinglernullDET260110+150 🟢71.3
Logan O'HoppenullLAA261190+71 🟢64.8
Quinn PriesterSPMIL2621034-772 🔴42.8
Jake Burger1BTEX26386+177 🟢73.8
Ryan WeathersSPNYY264363-99 🔴55.2
Andrew Vaughn1BMIL26554+211 🟢77.4
Bryce MillerSPSEA266728-462 🔴47.2
Connelly EarlySPBOS267319-52 🔴57.1
Spencer Steer1BCIN268684-416 🔴47.9
Luis Garcia2BWSH2691152-883 🔴41.4
Ryan O'Hearn1BPIT270267+360.0
Tyler StephensonnullCIN271160+111 🟢67.7
Clay HolmesSPNYM2721413-1141 🔴36.8
Chase DeLauterCFCLE2731032-759 🔴42.9
Grayson RodriguezSPLAA274129+145 🟢69.8
Casey MizeSPDET275308-33 🔴57.6
Mark Vientos3BNYM276122+154 🟢70.3
Braxton AshcraftSPPIT277145+132 🟢68.7
Cody PonceSPTOR2781652-1374 🔴29.0
Joey CantilloSPCLE279348-69 🔴55.8
Sean ManaeaSPNYM280789-509 🔴46.1
Mike BurrowsSPHOU281545-264 🔴50.6
Spencer SchwellenbachSPATL282151+131 🟢68.0
Evan CarterLFTEX283335-52 🔴56.6
Marcell OzunaDHPIT284213+71 🟢63.4
Jasson DominguezLFNYY286518-232 🔴51.1
Mickey MoniakLFCOL28784+203 🟢73.8
Luis GilSPNYY288787-499 🔴46.1
Miguel Vargas1BCWS289170+119 🟢66.5
Logan HendersonSPMIL290414-124 🔴53.7
Robert GarciaRPTEX291249+42 🟢61.1
Andrew PainterSPPHI2921289-997 🔴39.3
Michael WachaSPKC293975-682 🔴43.7
David PetersonSPNYM294995-701 🔴43.3
Yusei KikuchiSPLAA2951315-1020 🔴38.6
Brady SingerSPCIN296658-362 🔴48.4
Willi Castro2BCOL297609-312 🔴49.3
Masyn WinnSSSTL298465-167 🔴52.4
Ryan JeffersCMIN299317-1857.2
Zach McKinstry3BDET3001070-770 🔴42.4
Brayan BelloSPBOS301923-622 🔴44.4
Victor ScottCFSTL302962-660 🔴43.8
Colt Keith1BDET30499+205 🟢72.1
Matt Shaw3BCHC3051003-698 🔴43.3
Jose SorianoSPLAA306328-22 🔴56.9
Jonathan India2BKC307388-81 🔴54.5

*Data sourced from FantasyPros (NFBC, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*