The full weekly ADP vs Model breakdown. Our model ranks every player using Statcast data (xwOBA, barrel rate, exit velo, bat speed) combined with age curves and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Will Benson(CIN, LF)

ADP: 563 → Model: #73 — Gap: +490

Score: 74.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 70.0

2.Davis Schneider(TOR, 2B)

ADP: 581 → Model: #116 — Gap: +465

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 60.3

3.Christopher Morel(MIA, LF)

ADP: 564 → Model: #100 — Gap: +464

Score: 71.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.6

4.Romy Gonzalez(BOS, 1B)

ADP: 524 → Model: #61 — Gap: +463

Score: 75.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 73.7

5.Jake Bauers(MIL, 1B)

ADP: 561 → Model: #120 — Gap: +441

Score: 68.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.2

6.Dominic Canzone(SEA, LF)

ADP: 374 → Model: #58 — Gap: +316

Score: 76.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 73.3

7.Kody Clemens(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 430 → Model: #117 — Gap: +313

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.8

8.Otto Kemp(PHI, 1B)

ADP: 562 → Model: #263 — Gap: +299

Score: 54.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 55.9

9.Josh Bell(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 411 → Model: #115 — Gap: +296

Score: 69.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 69.0

10.Brooks Baldwin(CWS, 2B)

ADP: 485 → Model: #193 — Gap: +292

Score: 60.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 56.7

11.Jesus Sanchez(TOR, LF)

ADP: 399 → Model: #110 — Gap: +289

Score: 70.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.1

12.Wenceel Perez(DET, CF)

ADP: 481 → Model: #201 — Gap: +280

Score: 59.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 53.2

13.Brandon Marsh(PHI, LF)

ADP: 372 → Model: #112 — Gap: +260

Score: 69.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.2

14.Kyle Harrison(MIL, SP)

ADP: 578 → Model: #319 — Gap: +259

Score: 51.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 50.6

15.Matt Wallner(MIN, LF)

ADP: 346 → Model: #88 — Gap: +258

Score: 72.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 67.0

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players being drafted much higher than our model suggests they should be.

1.Will Smith(LAD, null)

ADP: 100 → Model: #1906 — Gap: -1806

Score: 15.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 16.6

2.Cody Ponce(TOR, SP)

ADP: 294 → Model: #1654 — Gap: -1360

Score: 25.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

3.Kenley Jansen(DET, RP)

ADP: 162 → Model: #1475 — Gap: -1313

Score: 31.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.1

4.Spencer Jones(NYY, CF)

ADP: 423 → Model: #1708 — Gap: -1285

Score: 23.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

5.Lucas Giolito(null, null)

ADP: 390 → Model: #1631 — Gap: -1241

Score: 27.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.4

6.Kirby Yates(LAA, RP)

ADP: 331 → Model: #1517 — Gap: -1186

Score: 30.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.6

7.Shane McClanahan(TB, SP)

ADP: 221 → Model: #1395 — Gap: -1174

Score: 33.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

8.Jose Berrios(TOR, SP)

ADP: 391 → Model: #1564 — Gap: -1173

Score: 29.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.2

9.Taylor Rogers(MIN, RP)

ADP: 387 → Model: #1553 — Gap: -1166

Score: 29.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 39.6

10.Clayton Kershaw(null, null)

ADP: 489 → Model: #1632 — Gap: -1143

Score: 26.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 38.5

11.Tatsuya Imai(HOU, SP)

ADP: 170 → Model: #1300 — Gap: -1130

Score: 35.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

12.Andrew Painter(PHI, SP)

ADP: 307 → Model: #1397 — Gap: -1090

Score: 33.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

13.Hunter Strickland(LAA, RP)

ADP: 486 → Model: #1558 — Gap: -1072

Score: 29.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.4

14.Miguel Rojas(LAD, 2B)

ADP: 474 → Model: #1531 — Gap: -1057

Score: 30.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 29.3

15.Nick Martinez(TB, SP)

ADP: 394 → Model: #1444 — Gap: -1050

Score: 32.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 23.9

📊 Full ADP vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of the top 300 ADP players matched against our model rankings.

PlayerPosTeamADPModelGapScore
Shohei OhtaniSPLAD11091.9
Aaron JudgeLFNYY212-1086.3
Bobby Witt Jr.SSKC45-189.1
Juan SotoLFNYM53+290.6
Jose Ramirez3BCLE6169-163 🔴62.4
Tarik SkubalSPDET723-1683.8
Ronald Acuna Jr.RFATL84+490.1
Elly De La CruzSSCIN937-28 🔴79.5
Paul SkenesSPPIT1013-386.2
Julio RodriguezCFSEA1126-1583.3
Kyle TuckerRFLAD1245-33 🔴78.5
Garrett CrochetSPBOS1330-1782.3
Cal RaleighCSEA1419-584.3
Fernando Tatis Jr.RFSD159+686.6
Gunnar HendersonSSBAL1632-1681.8
Corbin CarrollCFARI172+1590.8
Junior Caminero3BTB1818084.8
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1BTOR198+1186.8
Nick Kurtz1BATH206+1487.7
Kyle SchwarberLFPHI2124-383.6
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2BNYY2250-28 🔴77.9
Jackson ChourioLFMIL2395-72 🔴71.6
Francisco LindorSSNYM2496-72 🔴71.5
Pete Alonso1BBAL2516+985.0
Yoshinobu YamamotoSPLAD2663-37 🔴75.3
Ketel Marte2BARI2735-880.3
Trea TurnerSSPHI28208-180 🔴58.5
Cristopher SanchezSPPHI29102-73 🔴71.0
Manny Machado3BSD3057-27 🔴76.7
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCFCHC3155-24 🔴76.9
Yordan AlvarezLFHOU3244-1278.6
James WoodLFWSH337+26 🟢87.6
Zach NetoSSLAA3421+1384.0
Hunter BrownSPHOU3547-1278.1
Bryan WooSPSEA3649-1377.9
Matt Olson1BATL3733+481.0
Bryce Harper1BPHI3854-1677.3
Chris SaleSPATL39127-88 🔴68.2
Logan GilbertSPSEA40150-110 🔴64.8
Rafael Devers1BSF4117+24 🟢84.9
Brent RookerLFATH4246-478.3
Mason MillerRPSD43281-238 🔴53.1
Edwin DiazRPLAD44340-296 🔴50.2
Brice Turang2BMIL4548-378.0
Max FriedSPNYY46195-149 🔴60.0
Mookie BettsSSLAD47249-202 🔴55.1
Wyatt LangfordLFTEX4814+34 🟢86.0
Logan WebbSPSF49180-131 🔴61.4
Cole RagansSPKC50151-101 🔴64.7
Jacob deGromSPTEX51162-111 🔴63.5
Freddie Freeman1BLAD52131-79 🔴67.8
Roman AnthonyLFBOS5311+42 🟢86.5
William ContrerasCMIL54130-76 🔴67.9
Andres MunozRPSEA55290-235 🔴52.6
Freddy PeraltaSPNYM56174-118 🔴62.0
Josh Naylor1BSEA57168-111 🔴62.7
Austin Riley3BATL5828+30 🟢82.9
Jarren DuranLFBOS5952+777.5
Jhoan DuranRPPHI60323-263 🔴50.7
Cody BellingerLFNYY61184-123 🔴61.1
Riley GreeneLFDET6236+26 🟢80.1
Geraldo PerdomoSSARI63157-94 🔴64.2
Cade SmithRPCLE64228-164 🔴56.8
Ben RiceCNYY6510+55 🟢86.5
Maikel Garcia2BKC66106-40 🔴70.5
Jackson MerrillCFSD6722+45 🟢84.0
George KirbySPSEA68171-103 🔴62.2
CJ AbramsSSWSH69166-97 🔴63.2
Dylan CeaseSPTOR70134-64 🔴67.4
Shea LangeliersnullATH7167+474.8
Byron BuxtonCFMIN7242+30 🟢78.7
Hunter GoodmanCCOL7375-274.0
Joe RyanSPMIN74104-30 🔴70.8
George SpringerLFTOR7556+1976.7
Jesus LuzardoSPPHI7686-1072.5
Framber ValdezSPDET77325-248 🔴50.5
Vinnie Pasquantino1BKC7862+1675.5
Kyle BradishSPBAL79270-191 🔴53.8
Tyler Soderstrom1BATH8051+29 🟢77.7
Aroldis ChapmanRPBOS81541-460 🔴44.8
Hunter GreeneSPCIN8293-1171.7
Randy ArozarenaLFSEA8372+1174.4
David BednarRPNYY84387-303 🔴48.3
Oneil CruzCFPIT8529+56 🟢82.6
Corey SeagerSSTEX8631+55 🟢81.9
Seiya SuzukiLFCHC8734+53 🟢80.6
Eugenio Suarez3BCIN88122-34 🔴68.5
Bo BichetteSSNYM8960+29 🟢76.2
Nick PivettaSPSD91203-112 🔴58.9
Alex Bregman3BCHC92165-73 🔴63.3
Christian YelichLFMIL93155-62 🔴64.3
Devin WilliamsRPNYM94438-344 🔴46.6
Nico Hoerner2BCHC95306-211 🔴51.7
Nolan McLeanSPNYM96224-128 🔴57.0
Eury PerezSPMIA97146-49 🔴64.9
Jose Altuve2BHOU98881-783 🔴39.9
Salvador PerezCKC9998+171.3
Will SmithnullLAD1001906-1806 🔴15.4
Kevin GausmanSPTOR101331-230 🔴50.4
Michael Harris IICFATL102128-26 🔴68.1
Michael Busch1BCHC10315+88 🟢85.5
Jeremy PenaSSHOU104114-1069.6
Drake BaldwinnullATL10543+62 🟢78.7
Sonny GraySPBOS106176-70 🔴61.7
Blake SnellSPLAD107604-497 🔴43.7
Spencer StriderSPATL108510-402 🔴45.2
Josh HaderRPHOU109444-335 🔴46.5
Agustin RamirezCMIA11087+23 🟢72.5
Tyler GlasnowSPLAD111360-249 🔴48.9
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMIL112207-95 🔴58.6
Raisel IglesiasRPATL113660-547 🔴42.7
Chase BurnsSPCIN114293-179 🔴52.1
Willy AdamesSSSF11583+32 🟢72.8
Kyle StowersLFMIA11625+91 🟢83.4
Teoscar HernandezLFLAD117119-268.9
Trevor StorySSBOS118164-46 🔴63.3
Luke Keaschall2BMIN119191-72 🔴60.1
Brandon NimmoLFTEX120105+1570.6
Brandon WoodruffSPMIL121216-95 🔴57.6
Luis Robert Jr.CFNYM122135-1367.1
Taylor WardLFBAL12380+43 🟢73.4
Cam SchlittlerSPNYY124272-148 🔴53.6
Jo AdellCFLAA12520+105 🟢84.3
Yandy Diaz1BTB12697+29 🟢71.3
Nick LodoloSPCIN127101+26 🟢71.0
Ryan HelsleyRPBAL1281026-898 🔴38.3
Trey YesavageSPTOR129257-128 🔴54.5
Zack WheelerSPPHI130113+1769.8
Ozzie Albies2BATL131399-268 🔴47.9
Jakob MarseeLFMIA132118+1469.2
Carlos EstevezRPKC133887-754 🔴39.8
Michael KingSPSD134389-255 🔴48.3
Nathan EovaldiSPTEX135125+1068.4
Ryan PepiotSPTB136341-205 🔴50.1
Jeff HoffmanRPTOR1371042-905 🔴38.1
Lawrence ButlerCFATH138149-1164.8
Matt Chapman3BSF13964+75 🟢75.2
Emmet SheehanSPLAD140185-45 🔴60.9
Andy PagesLFLAD141172-31 🔴62.1
Yainer DiazCHOU142136+666.9
Luis CastilloSPSEA143230-87 🔴56.6
Noelvi Marte3BCIN144204-60 🔴58.9
Emilio PaganRPCIN145771-626 🔴41.3
Gavin WilliamsSPCLE146442-296 🔴46.5
MacKenzie GoreSPTEX147409-262 🔴47.5
Dansby SwansonSSCHC14882+66 🟢73.1
Ian HappLFCHC14970+79 🟢74.5
Adley RutschmannullBAL150167-1762.8
Daniel PalenciaRPCHC151351-200 🔴49.3
Trevor MegillRPMIL152645-493 🔴43.0
Steven KwanLFCLE153415-262 🔴47.5
Trevor RogersSPBAL154152+264.5
Sandy AlcantaraSPMIA155680-525 🔴42.4
Pete FairbanksRPMIA156798-642 🔴40.9
Brandon Lowe2BPIT15791+66 🟢71.9
Ceddanne Rafaela2BBOS158173-1562.1
Bubba ChandlerSPPIT159197-38 🔴59.6
Drew RasmussenSPTB160179-1961.6
Robbie RaySPSF161330-169 🔴50.5
Kenley JansenRPDET1621475-1313 🔴31.8
Xavier Edwards2BMIA163416-253 🔴47.5
Ranger SuarezSPBOS164266-102 🔴54.0
Jacob WilsonSSATH165451-286 🔴46.4
Jackson Holliday2BBAL166267-101 🔴54.0
Mike TroutCFLAA16792+75 🟢71.9
Chandler SimpsonLFTB168459-291 🔴46.1
Shota ImanagaSPCHC1691051-882 🔴38.0
Tatsuya ImaiSPHOU1701300-1130 🔴35.1
Tanner BibeeSPCLE171402-231 🔴47.8
Alejandro KirknullTOR17274+98 🟢74.0
Kazuma Okamoto1BTOR173766-593 🔴41.3
Ivan HerreraCSTL17439+135 🟢79.2
Alec Burleson1BSTL175109+66 🟢70.4
Colson Montgomery3BCWS17659+117 🟢76.5
Bryson Stott2BPHI177283-106 🔴52.9
Bryan ReynoldsLFPIT17866+112 🟢74.9
Spencer Torkelson1BDET17941+138 🟢78.8
Jonathan Aranda1BTB18027+153 🟢83.0
Willson Contreras1BBOS18194+87 🟢71.7
Isaac Paredes3BHOU182313-131 🔴51.3
Kris BubicSPKC183175+862.0
Munetaka Murakami1BCWS184464-280 🔴46.0
Cade HortonSPCHC185241-56 🔴55.7
Andrew AbbottSPCIN186182+461.2
Christian Walker1BHOU187144+43 🟢65.6
Addison Barger3BTOR18869+119 🟢74.5
Edward CabreraSPCHC189153+36 🟢64.5
Carlos RodonSPNYY190628-438 🔴43.3
Dennis SantanaRPPIT191369-178 🔴48.7
Jac Caglianone1BKC193161+32 🟢63.5
Daulton VarshoLFTOR19484+110 🟢72.7
Jordan Westburg2BBAL195103+92 🟢70.8
Dylan CrewsCFWSH196123+73 🟢68.5
Sal Stewart1BCIN197170+27 🟢62.3
Matt McLain2BCIN198213-1558.0
Marcus Semien2BNYM199286-87 🔴52.8
Shane BazSPBAL200252-52 🔴54.8
Gleyber Torres2BDET20165+136 🟢75.0
Abner UribeRPMIL202344-142 🔴49.8
Robert SuarezRPATL203617-414 🔴43.5
Jose Caballero2BNYY204946-742 🔴39.1
Matthew BoydSPCHC205443-238 🔴46.5
Jack FlahertySPDET206326-120 🔴50.5
Ryan WalkerRPSF207621-414 🔴43.4
Sal FrelickLFMIL208466-258 🔴45.9
Jorge Polanco2BNYM209126+83 🟢68.3
Zac GallenSPARI210892-682 🔴39.8
Spencer SchwellenbachSPATL211211058.3
Gerrit ColeSPNYY212322-110 🔴50.7
Daylen LileLFWSH213188+25 🟢60.5
Royce Lewis3BMIN214202+1259.0
Brendan Donovan2BSEA215124+91 🟢68.4
Aaron NolaSPPHI216300-84 🔴51.9
Brenton DoyleCFCOL217142+75 🟢66.1
Griffin JaxRPTB218367-149 🔴48.8
Gabriel MorenonullARI219156+63 🟢64.3
Heliot RamosLFSF22068+152 🟢74.6
Shane McClanahanSPTB2211395-1174 🔴33.4
Wilyer AbreuLFBOS22277+145 🟢73.8
Shane BieberSPTOR223581-358 🔴44.2
Adolis GarciaRFPHI224143+81 🟢65.9
Ezequiel TovarSSCOL225111+114 🟢70.2
Max Muncy3BLAD226285-59 🔴52.9
Bryan AbreuRPHOU227308-81 🔴51.6
Joe MusgroveSPSD2281018-790 🔴38.4
Samuel BasallonullBAL229199+30 🟢59.5
Trent GrishamCFNYY23138+193 🟢79.4
Merrill KellySPARI232453-221 🔴46.3
Kerry CarpenterLFDET23379+154 🟢73.4
Carter JensennullKC234147+87 🟢64.8
J.T. RealmutonullPHI235253-1854.8
Ramon LaureanoLFSD23671+165 🟢74.5
Caleb Durbin2BBOS237439-202 🔴46.6
Giancarlo StantonLFNYY238140+98 🟢66.1
Luis Arraez1BSF239524-285 🔴45.0
Alec Bohm1BPHI240159+81 🟢63.8
Carlos Correa3BHOU241177+64 🟢61.7
Roki SasakiSPLAD242419-177 🔴47.3
Austin WellsnullNYY243212+31 🟢58.1
Kyle Manzardo1BCLE244141+103 🟢66.1
Noah CameronSPKC245670-425 🔴42.5
Otto Lopez2BMIA246158+88 🟢63.9
Francisco AlvareznullNYM24790+157 🟢71.9
Jung Hoo LeeCFSF248343-95 🔴50.1
TJ FriedlLFCIN249620-371 🔴43.5
Colton CowserLFBAL250145+105 🟢65.3
Jack LeiterSPTEX251232+1956.6
Kyle TeelnullCWS252186+66 🟢60.8
Xander BogaertsSSSD253233+20 🟢56.6
Logan O'HoppenullLAA254148+106 🟢64.8
Quinn PriesterSPMIL255753-498 🔴41.4
Jordan BeckLFCOL256206+50 🟢58.6
Dillon DinglernullDET25899+159 🟢71.3
Seranthony DominguezRPCWS259631-372 🔴43.3
Kodai SengaSPNYM260528-268 🔴45.0
Ernie Clement1BTOR261656-395 🔴42.8
Ryne NelsonSPARI262239+23 🟢56.0
Bryce MillerSPSEA263512-249 🔴45.2
Shane SmithSPCWS264210+54 🟢58.4
Connelly EarlySPBOS265506-241 🔴45.3
Jake Burger1BTEX26678+188 🟢73.8
Bailey OberSPMIN267960-693 🔴39.0
Luis Garcia2BWSH268129+139 🟢68.0
Spencer Steer1BCIN269377-108 🔴48.5
Ryan WeathersSPNYY270386-116 🔴48.3
Mark Vientos3BNYM271108+163 🟢70.5
Tyler StephensonnullCIN272132+140 🟢67.7
Andrew Vaughn1BMIL27353+220 🟢77.4
Ryan O'Hearn1BPIT274194+80 🟢60.1
Chase DeLauterCFCLE276759-483 🔴41.4
Ryan JeffersCMIN277223+54 🟢57.2
Clay HolmesSPNYM2781285-1007 🔴35.3
Jasson DominguezLFNYY279309-30 🔴51.5
Casey MizeSPDET280246+34 🟢55.2
Logan HendersonSPMIL281426-145 🔴47.0
Robert GarciaRPTEX282592-310 🔴44.0
Marcell OzunaDHPIT283160+123 🟢63.5
Colt Keith1BDET28489+195 🟢72.1
Evan CarterLFTEX285231+54 🟢56.6
Braxton AshcraftSPPIT286205+81 🟢58.8
Miguel Vargas1BCWS287139+148 🟢66.5
Joey CantilloSPCLE288376-88 🔴48.5
Grayson RodriguezSPLAA289183+106 🟢61.1
Will VestRPDET290366-76 🔴48.8
Mickey MoniakLFCOL29176+215 🟢73.8
Masyn WinnSSSTL292280+1253.1
Brady SingerSPCIN293450-157 🔴46.4
Cody PonceSPTOR2941654-1360 🔴25.9
Zach McKinstry3BDET295686-391 🔴42.3
Chris BassittSPBAL2961298-1002 🔴35.1
Matt Shaw3BCHC297637-340 🔴43.2
Mike BurrowsSPHOU298547-249 🔴44.6
Willi Castro2BCOL299368-69 🔴48.8
Yusei KikuchiSPLAA3001152-852 🔴37.0
Brayan BelloSPBOS301671-370 🔴42.5
Nick CastellanosRFSD302706-404 🔴42.1
Victor ScottCFSTL303598-295 🔴43.8
Marcelo Mayer2BBOS304236+68 🟢56.4
Seth LugoSPKC3051295-990 🔴35.1
Jonathan India2BKC306256+50 🟢54.5

*Data sourced from FantasyPros (NFBC, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*