The full weekly ADP vs Model breakdown. Our model ranks every player using Statcast data (xwOBA, barrel rate, exit velo, bat speed) combined with age curves and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Christopher Morel(MIA, LF)

ADP: 583 → Model: #100 — Gap: +483

Score: 71.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.6

2.Will Benson(CIN, LF)

ADP: 548 → Model: #73 — Gap: +475

Score: 74.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 70.0

3.Romy Gonzalez(BOS, 1B)

ADP: 502 → Model: #61 — Gap: +441

Score: 75.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 73.7

4.Davis Schneider(TOR, 2B)

ADP: 493 → Model: #116 — Gap: +377

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 60.3

5.Gabriel Arias(CLE, 2B)

ADP: 593 → Model: #226 — Gap: +367

Score: 57.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 47.9

6.Kody Clemens(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 439 → Model: #117 — Gap: +322

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.8

7.Dominic Canzone(SEA, LF)

ADP: 377 → Model: #58 — Gap: +319

Score: 76.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 73.3

8.Luis Torrens(NYM, null)

ADP: 594 → Model: #277 — Gap: +317

Score: 53.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 59.4

9.Jesus Sanchez(TOR, LF)

ADP: 403 → Model: #109 — Gap: +294

Score: 70.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.1

10.Brooks Baldwin(CWS, 2B)

ADP: 476 → Model: #190 — Gap: +286

Score: 60.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 56.7

11.Matt Vierling(DET, LF)

ADP: 573 → Model: #288 — Gap: +285

Score: 52.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 56.3

12.Wenceel Perez(DET, CF)

ADP: 443 → Model: #161 — Gap: +282

Score: 63.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 53.2

13.Brady House(WSH, 3B)

ADP: 550 → Model: #270 — Gap: +280

Score: 53.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 37.7

14.Josh Bell(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 391 → Model: #115 — Gap: +276

Score: 69.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 69.0

15.Brandon Marsh(PHI, LF)

ADP: 386 → Model: #111 — Gap: +275

Score: 69.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.2

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players being drafted much higher than our model suggests they should be.

1.Cody Ponce(TOR, SP)

ADP: 283 → Model: #1685 — Gap: -1402

Score: 24.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

2.Kenley Jansen(DET, RP)

ADP: 162 → Model: #1472 — Gap: -1310

Score: 31.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.1

3.Spencer Jones(NYY, CF)

ADP: 420 → Model: #1707 — Gap: -1287

Score: 23.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

4.Lucas Giolito(null, null)

ADP: 366 → Model: #1632 — Gap: -1266

Score: 27.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.4

5.Luis Garcia(WSH, 2B)

ADP: 266 → Model: #1511 — Gap: -1245

Score: 30.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.5

6.Kirby Yates(LAA, RP)

ADP: 342 → Model: #1518 — Gap: -1176

Score: 30.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.6

7.Shane McClanahan(TB, SP)

ADP: 221 → Model: #1392 — Gap: -1171

Score: 33.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

8.Taylor Rogers(MIN, RP)

ADP: 392 → Model: #1552 — Gap: -1160

Score: 29.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 39.6

9.Jose Berrios(TOR, SP)

ADP: 376 → Model: #1521 — Gap: -1145

Score: 30.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.2

10.Tatsuya Imai(HOU, SP)

ADP: 171 → Model: #1303 — Gap: -1132

Score: 35.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

11.Hunter Strickland(LAA, RP)

ADP: 482 → Model: #1589 — Gap: -1107

Score: 28.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.4

12.Andrew Painter(PHI, SP)

ADP: 316 → Model: #1396 — Gap: -1080

Score: 33.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

13.Miguel Rojas(LAD, 2B)

ADP: 478 → Model: #1532 — Gap: -1054

Score: 30.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 29.3

14.Carlos Santana(ARI, 1B)

ADP: 499 → Model: #1550 — Gap: -1051

Score: 29.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 24.3

15.Javier Baez(DET, 2B)

ADP: 370 → Model: #1414 — Gap: -1044

Score: 33.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 24.7

📊 Full ADP vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of the top 300 ADP players matched against our model rankings.

PlayerPosTeamADPModelGapScore
Shohei OhtaniSPLAD113-1286.0
Aaron JudgeLFNYY211-986.3
Bobby Witt Jr.SSKC44089.1
Juan SotoLFNYM52+390.6
Jose Ramirez3BCLE6172-166 🔴62.4
Tarik SkubalSPDET723-1683.8
Ronald Acuna Jr.RFATL83+590.1
Elly De La CruzSSCIN938-29 🔴79.5
Paul SkenesSPPIT1012-286.2
Julio RodriguezCFSEA1126-1583.3
Garrett CrochetSPBOS1230-1882.3
Kyle TuckerRFLAD1345-32 🔴78.5
Cal RaleighCSEA1419-584.3
Fernando Tatis Jr.RFSD158+786.6
Corbin CarrollCFARI161+1590.8
Gunnar HendersonSSBAL1732-1581.8
Junior Caminero3BTB1818084.8
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1BTOR197+1287.3
Nick Kurtz1BATH205+1588.5
Kyle SchwarberLFPHI2124-383.6
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2BNYY2250-28 🔴77.9
Jackson ChourioLFMIL2389-66 🔴72.3
Francisco LindorSSNYM2496-72 🔴71.5
Yoshinobu YamamotoSPLAD2563-38 🔴75.3
Pete Alonso1BBAL2616+1085.0
Ketel Marte2BARI2735-880.3
Trea TurnerSSPHI28209-181 🔴58.5
Cristopher SanchezSPPHI29102-73 🔴71.0
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCFCHC3055-25 🔴76.9
Manny Machado3BSD3157-26 🔴76.7
James WoodLFWSH326+26 🟢87.6
Yordan AlvarezLFHOU3344-1178.6
Zach NetoSSLAA3421+1384.0
Hunter BrownSPHOU3547-1278.1
Bryan WooSPSEA3649-1377.9
Matt Olson1BATL3733+481.0
Bryce Harper1BPHI3854-1677.3
Logan GilbertSPSEA39151-112 🔴64.8
Rafael Devers1BSF4017+23 🟢84.9
Chris SaleSPATL41126-85 🔴68.2
Brent RookerLFATH4246-478.3
Mason MillerRPSD43281-238 🔴53.1
Edwin DiazRPLAD44335-291 🔴50.2
Mookie BettsSSLAD45251-206 🔴55.1
Max FriedSPNYY46198-152 🔴60.0
Brice Turang2BMIL4748-178.0
Hunter GreeneSPCIN4883-35 🔴73.0
Wyatt LangfordLFTEX4914+35 🟢86.0
Jacob deGromSPTEX50164-114 🔴63.5
Logan WebbSPSF51183-132 🔴61.4
Cole RagansSPKC52153-101 🔴64.7
Freddie Freeman1BLAD53131-78 🔴67.8
Roman AnthonyLFBOS5410+44 🟢86.5
Andres MunozRPSEA55290-235 🔴52.6
Josh Naylor1BSEA56171-115 🔴62.7
William ContrerasCMIL57130-73 🔴67.9
Freddy PeraltaSPNYM58177-119 🔴62.0
Jackson MerrillCFSD5922+37 🟢84.0
Geraldo PerdomoSSARI60158-98 🔴64.2
Riley GreeneLFDET6137+24 🟢80.1
Jhoan DuranRPPHI62345-283 🔴49.5
Austin Riley3BATL6328+35 🟢82.9
Jarren DuranLFBOS6452+1277.5
Cody BellingerLFNYY65187-122 🔴61.1
Cade SmithRPCLE66229-163 🔴56.8
Ben RiceCNYY679+58 🟢86.5
Maikel Garcia2BKC68106-38 🔴70.5
CJ AbramsSSWSH69168-99 🔴63.2
George KirbySPSEA70174-104 🔴62.2
Shea LangeliersnullATH7167+474.8
Dylan CeaseSPTOR72136-64 🔴67.4
Byron BuxtonCFMIN7342+31 🟢78.7
Joe RyanSPMIN74104-30 🔴70.8
George SpringerLFTOR7556+1976.7
Hunter GoodmanCCOL7675+174.0
Jesus LuzardoSPPHI7787-1072.5
Framber ValdezSPDET78323-245 🔴50.5
Kyle BradishSPBAL79258-179 🔴54.5
Vinnie Pasquantino1BKC8062+1875.5
Aroldis ChapmanRPBOS81538-457 🔴44.8
Tyler Soderstrom1BATH8251+31 🟢77.7
David BednarRPNYY83384-301 🔴48.3
Randy ArozarenaLFSEA8472+1274.4
Bo BichetteSSNYM8559+26 🟢76.2
Seiya SuzukiLFCHC8634+52 🟢80.6
Corey SeagerSSTEX8731+56 🟢81.9
Nick PivettaSPSD88203-115 🔴58.9
Oneil CruzCFPIT8929+60 🟢82.6
Eugenio Suarez3BCIN91122-31 🔴68.5
Christian YelichLFMIL92157-65 🔴64.3
Devin WilliamsRPNYM93443-350 🔴46.6
Jeremy PenaSSHOU94114-20 🔴69.6
Alex Bregman3BCHC95167-72 🔴63.3
Nico Hoerner2BCHC96305-209 🔴51.7
Blake SnellSPLAD97604-507 🔴43.7
Nolan McLeanSPNYM98224-126 🔴57.0
Jose Altuve2BHOU99884-785 🔴39.9
Salvador PerezCKC10098+271.3
Eury PerezSPMIA101148-47 🔴64.9
Will SmithnullLAD10240+62 🟢78.9
Michael Harris IICFATL103127-24 🔴68.1
Josh HaderRPHOU104454-350 🔴46.4
Kevin GausmanSPTOR105327-222 🔴50.4
Sonny GraySPBOS106179-73 🔴61.7
Drake BaldwinnullATL10743+64 🟢78.7
Michael Busch1BCHC10815+93 🟢85.5
Spencer StriderSPATL109511-402 🔴45.2
Agustin RamirezCMIA11088+22 🟢72.5
Tyler GlasnowSPLAD111362-251 🔴48.9
Raisel IglesiasRPATL112667-555 🔴42.7
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMIL113213-100 🔴58.2
Willy AdamesSSSF11484+30 🟢72.8
Kyle StowersLFMIA11525+90 🟢83.4
Chase BurnsSPCIN116294-178 🔴52.1
Carlos EstevezRPKC117890-773 🔴39.8
Trevor StorySSBOS118166-48 🔴63.3
Brandon NimmoLFTEX119105+1470.6
Teoscar HernandezLFLAD120119+168.9
Luke Keaschall2BMIN121197-76 🔴60.0
Brandon WoodruffSPMIL122206-84 🔴58.6
Luis Robert Jr.CFNYM123137-1467.1
Yandy Diaz1BTB12497+27 🟢71.3
Jo AdellCFLAA12520+105 🟢84.3
Cam SchlittlerSPNYY126276-150 🔴53.6
Ryan HelsleyRPBAL1271027-900 🔴38.3
Trey YesavageSPTOR128242-114 🔴55.8
Jakob MarseeLFMIA129118+1169.2
Nick LodoloSPCIN130101+29 🟢71.0
Taylor WardLFBAL13180+51 🟢73.4
Zack WheelerSPPHI132112+20 🟢69.8
Ozzie Albies2BATL133399-266 🔴47.9
Lawrence ButlerCFATH134150-1664.8
Michael KingSPSD135386-251 🔴48.3
Nathan EovaldiSPTEX136124+1268.4
Jeff HoffmanRPTOR1371042-905 🔴38.1
Ryan PepiotSPTB138336-198 🔴50.1
Yainer DiazCHOU139138+166.9
Andy PagesLFLAD140175-35 🔴62.1
Emmet SheehanSPLAD141188-47 🔴60.9
Luis CastilloSPSEA142232-90 🔴56.6
Trevor MegillRPMIL143649-506 🔴43.0
Noelvi Marte3BCIN144195-51 🔴60.2
Matt Chapman3BSF14564+81 🟢75.2
Gavin WilliamsSPCLE146445-299 🔴46.5
Emilio PaganRPCIN147777-630 🔴41.3
MacKenzie GoreSPTEX148409-261 🔴47.5
Dansby SwansonSSCHC14982+67 🟢73.1
Adley RutschmannullBAL150170-20 🔴62.8
Daniel PalenciaRPCHC151348-197 🔴49.3
Trevor RogersSPBAL152169-1763.0
Brandon Lowe2BPIT15393+60 🟢71.9
Ian HappLFCHC15470+84 🟢74.5
Steven KwanLFCLE155412-257 🔴47.5
Pete FairbanksRPMIA156800-644 🔴40.9
Sandy AlcantaraSPMIA157690-533 🔴42.4
Bubba ChandlerSPPIT158200-42 🔴59.6
Ceddanne Rafaela2BBOS159176-1762.1
Robbie RaySPSF160326-166 🔴50.5
Drew RasmussenSPTB161182-21 🔴61.6
Kenley JansenRPDET1621472-1310 🔴31.8
Jackson Holliday2BBAL163227-64 🔴57.0
Jordan Westburg2BBAL164103+61 🟢70.8
Jacob WilsonSSATH165455-290 🔴46.4
Xavier Edwards2BMIA166413-247 🔴47.5
Willson Contreras1BBOS16795+72 🟢71.7
Ranger SuarezSPBOS168268-100 🔴54.0
Chandler SimpsonLFTB169463-294 🔴46.1
Mike TroutCFLAA17094+76 🟢71.9
Tatsuya ImaiSPHOU1711303-1132 🔴35.1
Shota ImanagaSPCHC1721051-879 🔴38.0
Isaac Paredes3BHOU173312-139 🔴51.3
Alejandro KirknullTOR17474+100 🟢74.0
Tanner BibeeSPCLE175401-226 🔴47.8
Kazuma Okamoto1BTOR176769-593 🔴41.3
Alec Burleson1BSTL177113+64 🟢69.8
Bryson Stott2BPHI178285-107 🔴52.9
Christian Walker1BHOU179147+32 🟢65.6
Ivan HerreraCSTL18036+144 🟢80.1
Colson Montgomery3BCWS18160+121 🟢75.7
Spencer SchwellenbachSPATL182134+48 🟢67.5
Spencer Torkelson1BDET18341+142 🟢78.8
Bryan ReynoldsLFPIT18466+118 🟢74.9
Jonathan Aranda1BTB18527+158 🟢83.0
Cade HortonSPCHC186244-58 🔴55.7
Carlos RodonSPNYY187632-445 🔴43.3
Kris BubicSPKC188178+1062.0
Munetaka Murakami1BCWS189467-278 🔴46.0
Andrew AbbottSPCIN190185+561.2
Dennis SantanaRPPIT191369-178 🔴48.7
Edward CabreraSPCHC192154+38 🟢64.5
Jack FlahertySPDET193324-131 🔴50.5
Dylan CrewsCFWSH194128+66 🟢68.0
Daulton VarshoLFTOR19685+111 🟢72.7
Marcus Semien2BNYM197286-89 🔴52.8
Abner UribeRPMIL198340-142 🔴49.8
Robert SuarezRPATL199620-421 🔴43.5
Addison Barger3BTOR20069+131 🟢74.5
Ryan WalkerRPSF201625-424 🔴43.4
Royce Lewis3BMIN202202059.0
Jac Caglianone1BKC203162+41 🟢63.5
Sal FrelickLFMIL204470-266 🔴45.9
Shane BazSPBAL205255-50 🔴54.8
Gleyber Torres2BDET20665+141 🟢75.0
Sal Stewart1BCIN207173+34 🟢62.3
Jorge Polanco2BNYM208125+83 🟢68.3
Gerrit ColeSPNYY209320-111 🔴50.7
Jose Caballero2BNYY210949-739 🔴39.1
Shane BieberSPTOR211580-369 🔴44.2
Matthew BoydSPCHC212446-234 🔴46.5
Gabriel MorenonullARI213155+58 🟢64.4
Zac GallenSPARI214893-679 🔴39.8
Daylen LileLFWSH215192+23 🟢60.4
Brendan Donovan2BSEA216123+93 🟢68.4
Brenton DoyleCFCOL217142+75 🟢66.1
Griffin JaxRPTB218365-147 🔴48.8
Aaron NolaSPPHI219303-84 🔴51.9
Heliot RamosLFSF22068+152 🟢74.6
Shane McClanahanSPTB2211392-1171 🔴33.4
Kyle TeelnullCWS222156+66 🟢64.3
J.T. RealmutonullPHI223256-33 🔴54.8
Merrill KellySPARI224456-232 🔴46.3
Joe MusgroveSPSD2251018-793 🔴38.4
Adolis GarciaRFPHI226144+82 🟢65.9
Wilyer AbreuLFBOS22777+150 🟢73.8
Ezequiel TovarSSCOL228110+118 🟢70.2
Max Muncy3BLAD229318-89 🔴51.0
Matt McLain2BCIN230215+1558.0
Carter JensennullKC231149+82 🟢64.8
Trent GrishamCFNYY23239+193 🟢79.4
Kerry CarpenterLFDET23379+154 🟢73.4
Samuel BasallonullBAL234212+22 🟢58.3
Ramon LaureanoLFSD23571+164 🟢74.5
Giancarlo StantonLFNYY236141+95 🟢66.1
Roki SasakiSPLAD238418-180 🔴47.3
Austin WellsnullNYY239214+25 🟢58.0
Caleb Durbin2BBOS240444-204 🔴46.6
Noah CameronSPKC241677-436 🔴42.5
Otto Lopez2BMIA242159+83 🟢63.9
Kyle Manzardo1BCLE243143+100 🟢66.1
Luis Arraez1BSF244525-281 🔴45.0
Francisco AlvareznullNYM24592+153 🟢71.9
Alec Bohm1BPHI246160+86 🟢63.8
Jung Hoo LeeCFSF247338-91 🔴50.1
Quinn PriesterSPMIL248415-167 🔴47.4
Jack LeiterSPTEX249234+1556.6
Carlos Correa3BHOU250180+70 🟢61.7
Colton CowserLFBAL251140+111 🟢66.6
Logan O'HoppenullLAA252152+100 🟢64.7
Xander BogaertsSSSD253235+1856.6
Dillon DinglernullDET25499+155 🟢71.3
Bryan AbreuRPHOU255306-51 🔴51.6
Ryne NelsonSPARI256241+1556.0
Bryce MillerSPSEA257513-256 🔴45.2
Marcell OzunaDHPIT258163+95 🟢63.5
Ernie Clement1BTOR259664-405 🔴42.8
Connelly EarlySPBOS260472-212 🔴45.9
Seranthony DominguezRPCWS261636-375 🔴43.3
Kodai SengaSPNYM262557-295 🔴44.5
Mark Vientos3BNYM264108+156 🟢70.5
Shane SmithSPCWS265211+54 🟢58.4
Luis Garcia2BWSH2661511-1245 🔴30.6
Jasson DominguezLFNYY267310-43 🔴51.5
Jake Burger1BTEX26878+190 🟢73.6
Spencer Steer1BCIN269378-109 🔴48.5
Tyler StephensonnullCIN270132+138 🟢67.7
Ryan O'Hearn1BPIT271196+75 🟢60.1
TJ FriedlLFCIN272623-351 🔴43.5
Ryan JeffersCMIN273223+50 🟢57.2
Bailey OberSPMIN274964-690 🔴39.0
Grayson RodriguezSPLAA275186+89 🟢61.1
Logan HendersonSPMIL276376-100 🔴48.5
Robert GarciaRPTEX277589-312 🔴44.0
Andrew Vaughn1BMIL27953+226 🟢77.4
Colt Keith1BDET28091+189 🟢72.1
Clay HolmesSPNYM2811289-1008 🔴35.3
Chase DeLauterCFCLE282760-478 🔴41.4
Cody PonceSPTOR2831685-1402 🔴24.2
Masyn WinnSSSTL284279+553.1
Matt Shaw3BCHC285642-357 🔴43.2
Evan CarterLFTEX286233+53 🟢56.6
Joey CantilloSPCLE287377-90 🔴48.5
Casey MizeSPDET288248+40 🟢55.2
Miguel Vargas1BCWS289146+143 🟢65.7
Luis GilSPNYY290845-555 🔴40.4
Mickey MoniakLFCOL29176+215 🟢73.8
Lenyn Sosa1BCWS292201+91 🟢59.5
Braxton AshcraftSPPIT293204+89 🟢58.8
Andres Gimenez2BTOR294375-81 🔴48.6
Ryan WeathersSPNYY295383-88 🔴48.3
Jordan BeckLFCOL296207+89 🟢58.6
Anthony SantanderLFTOR2971177-880 🔴36.7
Brayan BelloSPBOS298679-381 🔴42.5
Brady SingerSPCIN299453-154 🔴46.4
Edwin UcetaRPTB300488-188 🔴45.6
Ian SeymourSPTB301450-149 🔴46.4
David PetersonSPNYM302750-448 🔴41.5
Chris BassittSPBAL3031296-993 🔴35.1
Tommy Edman2BLAD304459-155 🔴46.3
Nolan Schanuel1BLAA305272+33 🟢53.8
Zach McKinstry3BDET306744-438 🔴41.6

*Data sourced from FantasyPros (NFBC, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*