The full weekly ADP vs Model breakdown. Our model ranks every player using Statcast data (xwOBA, barrel rate, exit velo, bat speed) combined with age curves and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Christopher Morel(MIA, LF)

ADP: 590 → Model: #100 — Gap: +490

Score: 71.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.6

2.Will Benson(CIN, LF)

ADP: 563 → Model: #74 — Gap: +489

Score: 74.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 70.0

3.Jake Bauers(MIL, 1B)

ADP: 593 → Model: #120 — Gap: +473

Score: 68.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.2

4.Davis Schneider(TOR, 2B)

ADP: 546 → Model: #117 — Gap: +429

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 60.3

5.Romy Gonzalez(BOS, 1B)

ADP: 448 → Model: #63 — Gap: +385

Score: 75.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 73.7

6.Blaze Alexander(BAL, 2B)

ADP: 594 → Model: #215 — Gap: +379

Score: 58.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 57.1

7.Yoan Moncada(LAA, 3B)

ADP: 555 → Model: #199 — Gap: +356

Score: 59.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 58.5

8.Gabriel Arias(CLE, 2B)

ADP: 564 → Model: #226 — Gap: +338

Score: 57.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 47.9

9.Kody Clemens(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 442 → Model: #118 — Gap: +324

Score: 69.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.8

10.Dominic Canzone(SEA, LF)

ADP: 376 → Model: #59 — Gap: +317

Score: 76.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 73.3

11.Rhys Hoskins(CLE, 1B)

ADP: 566 → Model: #259 — Gap: +307

Score: 54.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 52.5

12.Henry Davis(PIT, null)

ADP: 585 → Model: #279 — Gap: +306

Score: 53.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 48.4

13.Jesus Sanchez(TOR, LF)

ADP: 407 → Model: #109 — Gap: +298

Score: 70.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.1

14.Josh Bell(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 400 → Model: #116 — Gap: +284

Score: 69.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 69.0

15.Brooks Baldwin(CWS, 2B)

ADP: 471 → Model: #190 — Gap: +281

Score: 60.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 56.7

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players being drafted much higher than our model suggests they should be.

1.Tatsuya Imai(HOU, SP)

ADP: 180 → Model: #1576 — Gap: -1396

Score: 28.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

2.Kenley Jansen(DET, RP)

ADP: 153 → Model: #1471 — Gap: -1318

Score: 31.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.1

3.Spencer Jones(NYY, CF)

ADP: 435 → Model: #1707 — Gap: -1272

Score: 23.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

4.Lucas Giolito(null, null)

ADP: 368 → Model: #1628 — Gap: -1260

Score: 27.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.4

5.Cody Ponce(TOR, SP)

ADP: 289 → Model: #1503 — Gap: -1214

Score: 30.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

6.Kirby Yates(LAA, RP)

ADP: 340 → Model: #1521 — Gap: -1181

Score: 30.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.6

7.Shane McClanahan(TB, SP)

ADP: 228 → Model: #1389 — Gap: -1161

Score: 33.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

8.Jose Berrios(TOR, SP)

ADP: 372 → Model: #1523 — Gap: -1151

Score: 30.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.2

9.Max Scherzer(TOR, SP)

ADP: 493 → Model: #1610 — Gap: -1117

Score: 28.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 36.7

10.Taylor Rogers(MIN, RP)

ADP: 440 → Model: #1552 — Gap: -1112

Score: 29.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 39.6

11.Andrew Painter(PHI, SP)

ADP: 323 → Model: #1393 — Gap: -1070

Score: 33.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

12.Carlos Santana(ARI, 1B)

ADP: 484 → Model: #1549 — Gap: -1065

Score: 29.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 24.3

13.Javier Baez(DET, 2B)

ADP: 379 → Model: #1416 — Gap: -1037

Score: 32.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 24.7

14.Miguel Rojas(LAD, 2B)

ADP: 483 → Model: #1516 — Gap: -1033

Score: 30.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 29.3

15.Mauricio Dubon(ATL, 2B)

ADP: 464 → Model: #1488 — Gap: -1024

Score: 31.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 15.1

📊 Full ADP vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of the top 300 ADP players matched against our model rankings.

PlayerPosTeamADPModelGapScore
Shohei OhtaniSPLAD113-1286.0
Aaron JudgeLFNYY211-986.3
Bobby Witt Jr.SSKC44089.1
Juan SotoLFNYM52+390.6
Jose Ramirez3BCLE6171-165 🔴62.4
Tarik SkubalSPDET724-1783.8
Ronald Acuna Jr.RFATL83+590.1
Elly De La CruzSSCIN938-29 🔴79.5
Paul SkenesSPPIT1012-286.2
Julio RodriguezCFSEA1126-1583.3
Garrett CrochetSPBOS1230-1882.3
Kyle TuckerRFLAD1344-31 🔴78.5
Corbin CarrollCFARI141+1390.8
Cal RaleighCSEA1520-584.3
Fernando Tatis Jr.RFSD168+886.6
Gunnar HendersonSSBAL1731-1481.8
Junior Caminero3BTB1819-184.8
Nick Kurtz1BATH195+1488.5
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1BTOR207+1387.3
Kyle SchwarberLFPHI2118+384.9
Francisco LindorSSNYM2297-75 🔴71.5
Jackson ChourioLFMIL2389-66 🔴72.3
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2BNYY2450-26 🔴77.9
Yoshinobu YamamotoSPLAD2564-39 🔴75.3
Pete Alonso1BBAL2616+1085.0
Ketel Marte2BARI2735-880.3
Cristopher SanchezSPPHI28102-74 🔴71.0
Trea TurnerSSPHI29207-178 🔴58.5
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCFCHC3055-25 🔴76.9
Manny Machado3BSD3158-27 🔴76.7
James WoodLFWSH326+26 🟢88.1
Yordan AlvarezLFHOU3343-1078.6
Hunter BrownSPHOU3447-1378.1
Zach NetoSSLAA3522+1384.0
Bryan WooSPSEA3649-1377.9
Matt Olson1BATL3733+481.0
Bryce Harper1BPHI3854-1677.3
Logan GilbertSPSEA39151-112 🔴64.8
Rafael Devers1BSF4017+23 🟢84.9
Chris SaleSPATL41128-87 🔴68.2
Mason MillerRPSD42283-241 🔴53.1
Brent RookerLFATH4346-378.3
Edwin DiazRPLAD44335-291 🔴50.2
Hunter GreeneSPCIN4560-1576.3
Max FriedSPNYY46198-152 🔴60.0
Brice Turang2BMIL4748-178.0
Mookie BettsSSLAD48253-205 🔴55.1
Wyatt LangfordLFTEX4914+35 🟢86.0
Logan WebbSPSF50183-133 🔴61.4
Roman AnthonyLFBOS5110+41 🟢86.5
Jacob deGromSPTEX52163-111 🔴63.5
Freddie Freeman1BLAD53131-78 🔴67.8
Cole RagansSPKC54153-99 🔴64.7
Andres MunozRPSEA55292-237 🔴52.6
Cody BellingerLFNYY56185-129 🔴61.1
Josh Naylor1BSEA57170-113 🔴62.7
William ContrerasCMIL58130-72 🔴67.9
Jhoan DuranRPPHI59348-289 🔴49.5
Freddy PeraltaSPNYM60176-116 🔴62.0
Austin Riley3BATL6128+33 🟢82.9
Cade SmithRPCLE62229-167 🔴56.8
Geraldo PerdomoSSARI63158-95 🔴64.2
Riley GreeneLFDET6437+27 🟢80.1
Jarren DuranLFBOS6552+1377.5
Jackson MerrillCFSD6623+43 🟢84.0
Ben RiceCNYY679+58 🟢86.5
Joe RyanSPMIN68104-36 🔴70.8
CJ AbramsSSWSH69167-98 🔴63.2
George KirbySPSEA70173-103 🔴62.2
Maikel Garcia2BKC71101-30 🔴71.0
Shea LangeliersnullATH7268+474.8
Dylan CeaseSPTOR73136-63 🔴67.4
Byron BuxtonCFMIN7442+32 🟢78.7
George SpringerLFTOR7557+1876.7
Hunter GoodmanCCOL7676074.0
Jesus LuzardoSPPHI7787-1072.5
Framber ValdezSPDET78323-245 🔴50.5
Aroldis ChapmanRPBOS79543-464 🔴44.8
Kyle BradishSPBAL80263-183 🔴54.5
Bo BichetteSSNYM8156+25 🟢76.7
Vinnie Pasquantino1BKC8262+20 🟢75.6
Seiya SuzukiLFCHC8334+49 🟢80.6
David BednarRPNYY84385-301 🔴48.3
Tyler Soderstrom1BATH8551+34 🟢77.7
Randy ArozarenaLFSEA8673+1374.4
Blake SnellSPLAD87608-521 🔴43.7
Nick PivettaSPSD88203-115 🔴58.9
Devin WilliamsRPNYM89442-353 🔴46.6
Corey SeagerSSTEX9032+58 🟢81.6
Oneil CruzCFPIT9229+63 🟢82.6
Eugenio Suarez3BCIN93123-30 🔴68.5
Jeremy PenaSSHOU94111-1769.9
Nico Hoerner2BCHC95306-211 🔴51.7
Josh HaderRPHOU96452-356 🔴46.4
Alex Bregman3BCHC97166-69 🔴63.3
Spencer StriderSPATL98514-416 🔴45.2
Christian YelichLFMIL99157-58 🔴64.3
Salvador PerezCKC10096+471.7
Jose Altuve2BHOU101891-790 🔴39.9
Eury PerezSPMIA102148-46 🔴64.9
Will SmithnullLAD10340+63 🟢78.9
Michael Harris IICFATL104122-1868.6
Drake BaldwinnullATL10545+60 🟢78.4
Nolan McLeanSPNYM106224-118 🔴57.0
Kevin GausmanSPTOR107329-222 🔴50.4
Sonny GraySPBOS108179-71 🔴61.7
Michael Busch1BCHC10915+94 🟢85.5
Raisel IglesiasRPATL110670-560 🔴42.7
Agustin RamirezCMIA11188+23 🟢72.5
Trevor StorySSBOS112165-53 🔴63.3
Carlos EstevezRPKC113895-782 🔴39.8
Tyler GlasnowSPLAD114363-249 🔴48.9
Kyle StowersLFMIA11525+90 🟢83.4
Brandon WoodruffSPMIL116213-97 🔴58.1
Chase BurnsSPCIN117294-177 🔴52.2
Teoscar HernandezLFLAD118119-168.9
Willy AdamesSSSF11984+35 🟢72.8
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMIL120212-92 🔴58.2
Brandon NimmoLFTEX121106+1570.6
Ryan HelsleyRPBAL1221028-906 🔴38.3
Yandy Diaz1BTB12398+25 🟢71.3
Luis Robert Jr.CFNYM124137-1367.1
Jo AdellCFLAA12521+104 🟢84.3
Luke Keaschall2BMIN126195-69 🔴60.2
Jakob MarseeLFMIA127114+1369.8
Cam SchlittlerSPNYY128274-146 🔴53.6
Lawrence ButlerCFATH129150-21 🔴64.8
Taylor WardLFBAL13080+50 🟢73.4
Zack WheelerSPPHI131113+1869.8
Jeff HoffmanRPTOR1321044-912 🔴38.1
Andy PagesLFLAD133174-41 🔴62.1
Nick LodoloSPCIN134105+29 🟢70.7
Ozzie Albies2BATL135406-271 🔴47.8
Trevor MegillRPMIL136651-515 🔴43.0
Michael KingSPSD137386-249 🔴48.3
Yainer DiazCHOU138138066.9
Jordan Westburg2BBAL139103+36 🟢70.8
Nathan EovaldiSPTEX140125+1568.4
Ryan PepiotSPTB141336-195 🔴50.1
Luis CastilloSPSEA142231-89 🔴56.6
Emilio PaganRPCIN143776-633 🔴41.3
Gavin WilliamsSPCLE144445-301 🔴46.5
Matt Chapman3BSF14565+80 🟢75.2
Noelvi Marte3BCIN146196-50 🔴60.2
Emmet SheehanSPLAD147186-39 🔴60.9
Trey YesavageSPTOR148236-88 🔴56.5
Pete FairbanksRPMIA149801-652 🔴40.9
Adley RutschmannullBAL150169-1962.8
MacKenzie GoreSPTEX151413-262 🔴47.5
Dansby SwansonSSCHC15283+69 🟢73.1
Kenley JansenRPDET1531471-1318 🔴31.8
Jackson Holliday2BBAL154227-73 🔴57.0
Brandon Lowe2BPIT15593+62 🟢71.9
Ian HappLFCHC15671+85 🟢74.5
Daniel PalenciaRPCHC157351-194 🔴49.3
Steven KwanLFCLE158416-258 🔴47.5
Trevor RogersSPBAL159168-963.0
Ceddanne Rafaela2BBOS160175-1562.1
Ivan HerreraCSTL16136+125 🟢80.1
Sandy AlcantaraSPMIA162698-536 🔴42.4
Jacob WilsonSSATH163453-290 🔴46.4
Robbie RaySPSF164328-164 🔴50.5
Spencer SchwellenbachSPATL165134+31 🟢67.5
Drew RasmussenSPTB166182-1661.6
Chandler SimpsonLFTB167465-298 🔴46.1
Bubba ChandlerSPPIT168200-32 🔴59.5
Ranger SuarezSPBOS169268-99 🔴54.0
Willson Contreras1BBOS17095+75 🟢71.7
Isaac Paredes3BHOU171312-141 🔴51.3
Xavier Edwards2BMIA172417-245 🔴47.5
Jurickson ProfarLFATL173240-67 🔴56.1
Mike TroutCFLAA17494+80 🟢71.9
Alejandro KirknullTOR17575+100 🟢74.0
Shota ImanagaSPCHC1761055-879 🔴38.0
Marcus Semien2BNYM177286-109 🔴52.8
Tanner BibeeSPCLE178387-209 🔴48.3
Colson Montgomery3BCWS17961+118 🟢75.7
Tatsuya ImaiSPHOU1801576-1396 🔴28.8
Alec Burleson1BSTL181115+66 🟢69.8
Spencer Torkelson1BDET18241+141 🟢78.9
Bryson Stott2BPHI183285-102 🔴52.9
Brenton DoyleCFCOL184142+42 🟢66.1
Bryan ReynoldsLFPIT18567+118 🟢74.9
Jonathan Aranda1BTB18627+159 🟢83.0
Andrew AbbottSPCIN187187060.9
Kazuma Okamoto1BTOR188769-581 🔴41.3
Carlos RodonSPNYY189633-444 🔴43.3
Cade HortonSPCHC190245-55 🔴55.7
Dennis SantanaRPPIT191371-180 🔴48.7
Dylan CrewsCFWSH192127+65 🟢68.2
Kris BubicSPKC193177+1662.0
Munetaka Murakami1BCWS194470-276 🔴46.0
Jack FlahertySPDET195324-129 🔴50.5
Edward CabreraSPCHC196154+42 🟢64.5
Christian Walker1BHOU197147+50 🟢65.6
Royce Lewis3BMIN198202-459.0
Gerrit ColeSPNYY199320-121 🔴50.7
Abner UribeRPMIL200342-142 🔴49.8
Shane BieberSPTOR201549-348 🔴44.6
Aaron NolaSPPHI202304-102 🔴51.9
Robert SuarezRPATL203621-418 🔴43.5
Addison Barger3BTOR20470+134 🟢74.5
Ryan WalkerRPSF205625-420 🔴43.4
Max Muncy3BLAD206317-111 🔴51.0
Daulton VarshoLFTOR20785+122 🟢72.7
Gabriel MorenonullARI208155+53 🟢64.4
Jorge Polanco2BNYM209126+83 🟢68.3
Gleyber Torres2BDET21066+144 🟢75.0
Shane BazSPBAL211257-46 🔴54.8
Sal FrelickLFMIL213472-259 🔴45.9
Matthew BoydSPCHC214446-232 🔴46.5
Zac GallenSPARI215898-683 🔴39.8
Heliot RamosLFSF21669+147 🟢74.6
Daylen LileLFWSH217191+26 🟢60.5
Jac Caglianone1BKC218160+58 🟢63.8
Giancarlo StantonLFNYY219141+78 🟢66.1
Merrill KellySPARI220456-236 🔴46.3
Jose Caballero2BNYY221955-734 🔴39.1
Kyle TeelnullCWS222156+66 🟢64.3
Francisco AlvareznullNYM22392+131 🟢71.9
Sal Stewart1BCIN224172+52 🟢62.3
Griffin JaxRPTB225367-142 🔴48.8
Matt McLain2BCIN226216+1057.9
J.T. RealmutonullPHI227258-31 🔴54.8
Shane McClanahanSPTB2281389-1161 🔴33.4
Wilyer AbreuLFBOS22978+151 🟢73.8
Trent GrishamCFNYY23039+191 🟢79.4
Adolis GarciaRFPHI231144+87 🟢65.9
Ezequiel TovarSSCOL232110+122 🟢70.2
Joe MusgroveSPSD2331023-790 🔴38.4
Spencer Steer1BCIN234381-147 🔴48.5
Austin WellsnullNYY235214+21 🟢58.0
Ernie Clement1BTOR236667-431 🔴42.8
Kerry CarpenterLFDET23779+158 🟢73.4
Ramon LaureanoLFSD23872+166 🟢74.5
Brendan Donovan2BSEA239124+115 🟢68.4
Carter JensennullKC240149+91 🟢64.8
Xander BogaertsSSSD241235+656.6
Noah CameronSPKC242685-443 🔴42.5
Bryce MillerSPSEA243516-273 🔴45.2
Samuel BasallonullBAL244210+34 🟢58.3
Roki SasakiSPLAD245390-145 🔴48.2
Otto Lopez2BMIA246159+87 🟢63.9
Kyle Manzardo1BCLE247143+104 🟢66.1
Alec Bohm1BPHI248161+87 🟢63.8
Luis Arraez1BSF249525-276 🔴45.0
Quinn PriesterSPMIL250350-100 🔴49.3
Caleb Durbin2BBOS251443-192 🔴46.6
Luis Garcia2BWSH252129+123 🟢68.0
Colton CowserLFBAL253140+113 🟢66.6
Jack LeiterSPTEX254234+20 🟢56.6
Carlos Correa3BHOU255180+75 🟢61.7
Jung Hoo LeeCFSF257337-80 🔴50.1
Logan O'HoppenullLAA258152+106 🟢64.7
Dillon DinglernullDET25999+160 🟢71.3
Connelly EarlySPBOS260455-195 🔴46.3
Mark Vientos3BNYM261108+153 🟢70.5
Bryan AbreuRPHOU262307-45 🔴51.6
Marcell OzunaDHPIT263162+101 🟢63.5
Tyler StephensonnullCIN264133+131 🟢67.7
Matt Shaw3BCHC265638-373 🔴43.2
Kodai SengaSPNYM266561-295 🔴44.5
Seranthony DominguezRPCWS267636-369 🔴43.3
Ryne NelsonSPARI268242+26 🟢56.0
Shane SmithSPCWS269209+60 🟢58.4
Brayan BelloSPBOS270687-417 🔴42.5
Jasson DominguezLFNYY271310-39 🔴51.5
Ryan JeffersCMIN272218+54 🟢57.5
Robert GarciaRPTEX273592-319 🔴44.0
Ryan O'Hearn1BPIT274197+77 🟢60.1
Edwin UcetaRPTB275463-188 🔴46.1
Bailey OberSPMIN276968-692 🔴39.0
Grayson RodriguezSPLAA277184+93 🟢61.1
TJ FriedlLFCIN278624-346 🔴43.5
Jake Burger1BTEX27981+198 🟢73.3
Colt Keith1BDET28091+189 🟢72.1
Andrew Vaughn1BMIL28153+228 🟢77.4
Logan HendersonSPMIL282397-115 🔴48.0
Casey MizeSPDET283251+32 🟢55.2
Masyn WinnSSSTL284281+353.1
Chase DeLauterCFCLE2851302-1017 🔴35.0
Mickey MoniakLFCOL28677+209 🟢73.8
Lenyn Sosa1BCWS287201+86 🟢59.5
Clay HolmesSPNYM2881285-997 🔴35.3
Cody PonceSPTOR2891503-1214 🔴30.9
Brady SingerSPCIN290460-170 🔴46.2
Anthony SantanderLFTOR2911179-888 🔴36.7
Joey CantilloSPCLE292380-88 🔴48.5
Evan CarterLFTEX293233+60 🟢56.6
Luis GilSPNYY294848-554 🔴40.4
Ian SeymourSPTB295477-182 🔴45.8
Sean ManaeaSPNYM296662-366 🔴42.9
Jordan BeckLFCOL298206+92 🟢58.6
Chris BassittSPBAL2991293-994 🔴35.1
Miguel Vargas1BCWS300146+154 🟢65.7
Will VestRPDET302366-64 🔴48.8
Braxton AshcraftSPPIT303204+99 🟢58.8
Andres Gimenez2BTOR304379-75 🔴48.6
Jameson TaillonSPCHC3051027-722 🔴38.3
Nick CastellanosRFSD306632-326 🔴43.4

*Data sourced from FantasyPros (NFBC, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*