The full weekly ADP vs Model breakdown. Our model ranks every player using Statcast data (xwOBA, barrel rate, exit velo, bat speed) combined with age curves and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Yoan Moncada(LAA, 3B)

ADP: 566 → Model: #174 — Gap: +392

Score: 59.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 58.4

2.Romy Gonzalez(BOS, 1B)

ADP: 460 → Model: #99 — Gap: +361

Score: 68.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 61.4

3.Kody Clemens(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 447 → Model: #92 — Gap: +355

Score: 68.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.3

4.Josh Bell(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 401 → Model: #91 — Gap: +310

Score: 69.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 68.0

5.Kyle Leahy(STL, RP)

ADP: 576 → Model: #270 — Gap: +306

Score: 53.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 49.0

6.Wenceel Perez(DET, CF)

ADP: 448 → Model: #156 — Gap: +292

Score: 61.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 51.9

7.Nasim Nunez(WSH, 2B)

ADP: 547 → Model: #260 — Gap: +287

Score: 53.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 50.1

8.Dominic Canzone(SEA, LF)

ADP: 372 → Model: #87 — Gap: +285

Score: 69.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 61.5

9.Davis Schneider(TOR, 2B)

ADP: 508 → Model: #225 — Gap: +283

Score: 56.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 57.1

10.Griffin Conine(MIA, LF)

ADP: 538 → Model: #265 — Gap: +273

Score: 53.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 52.0

11.Matt Wallner(MIN, LF)

ADP: 346 → Model: #79 — Gap: +267

Score: 70.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.3

12.Joey Loperfido(HOU, LF)

ADP: 580 → Model: #317 — Gap: +263

Score: 50.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 46.0

13.Otto Kemp(PHI, 1B)

ADP: 549 → Model: #294 — Gap: +255

Score: 51.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 50.0

14.Brady House(WSH, 3B)

ADP: 551 → Model: #297 — Gap: +254

Score: 51.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 33.4

15.CJ Kayfus(CLE, 1B)

ADP: 489 → Model: #236 — Gap: +253

Score: 55.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 51.6

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players being drafted much higher than our model suggests they should be.

1.Tatsuya Imai(HOU, SP)

ADP: 174 → Model: #1509 — Gap: -1335

Score: 28.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

2.Kenley Jansen(DET, RP)

ADP: 156 → Model: #1360 — Gap: -1204

Score: 32.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 47.8

3.Andrew Painter(PHI, SP)

ADP: 319 → Model: #1521 — Gap: -1202

Score: 28.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

4.Luis Garcia(WSH, 2B)

ADP: 248 → Model: #1408 — Gap: -1160

Score: 31.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 48.1

5.Seth Lugo(KC, SP)

ADP: 318 → Model: #1477 — Gap: -1159

Score: 29.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 17.8

6.Spencer Jones(NYY, CF)

ADP: 472 → Model: #1627 — Gap: -1155

Score: 23.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

7.Lucas Giolito(null, null)

ADP: 360 → Model: #1497 — Gap: -1137

Score: 29.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 21.8

8.Kirby Yates(LAA, RP)

ADP: 321 → Model: #1450 — Gap: -1129

Score: 30.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 45.8

9.Shane McClanahan(TB, SP)

ADP: 230 → Model: #1340 — Gap: -1110

Score: 33.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

10.Cody Ponce(TOR, SP)

ADP: 300 → Model: #1374 — Gap: -1074

Score: 32.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 0.0

11.Miguel Rojas(LAD, 2B)

ADP: 492 → Model: #1517 — Gap: -1025

Score: 28.7 · 30-Day Pulse: 29.4

12.Javier Baez(DET, 2B)

ADP: 377 → Model: #1398 — Gap: -1021

Score: 32.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 22.8

13.Zack Littell(null, null)

ADP: 407 → Model: #1414 — Gap: -1007

Score: 31.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 23.4

14.Carlos Santana(ARI, 1B)

ADP: 485 → Model: #1475 — Gap: -990

Score: 29.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 24.3

15.Jose Berrios(TOR, SP)

ADP: 417 → Model: #1400 — Gap: -983

Score: 31.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 21.9

📊 Full ADP vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of the top 300 ADP players matched against our model rankings.

PlayerPosTeamADPModelGapScore
Shohei OhtaniSPLAD15-485.4
Aaron JudgeLFNYY216-1481.2
Bobby Witt Jr.SSKC43+186.7
Juan SotoLFNYM51+490.0
Jose Ramirez3BCLE667-61 🔴71.8
Tarik SkubalSPDET712-582.6
Ronald Acuna Jr.RFATL84+485.8
Elly De La CruzSSCIN923-1479.8
Paul SkenesSPPIT106+484.6
Julio RodriguezCFSEA1115-481.8
Corbin CarrollCFARI122+1089.7
Garrett CrochetSPBOS1314-181.8
Kyle TuckerRFLAD1428-1478.8
Fernando Tatis Jr.RFSD159+683.8
Cal RaleighCSEA1613+381.9
Gunnar HendersonSSBAL1721-480.0
Junior Caminero3BTB1820-280.1
Nick Kurtz1BATH1911+883.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1BTOR2025-579.5
Francisco LindorSSNYM2163-42 🔴72.4
Kyle SchwarberLFPHI2222079.9
Jackson ChourioLFMIL2358-35 🔴73.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2BNYY2417+781.0
Yoshinobu YamamotoSPLAD2559-34 🔴72.9
Pete Alonso1BBAL2633-777.8
Ketel Marte2BARI2748-21 🔴75.2
Trea TurnerSSPHI28144-116 🔴62.2
Cristopher SanchezSPPHI2937-876.8
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCFCHC3029+178.7
Manny Machado3BSD3168-37 🔴71.7
James WoodLFWSH327+25 🟢84.2
Yordan AlvarezLFHOU3382-49 🔴69.9
Hunter BrownSPHOU3443-976.0
Zach NetoSSLAA3510+25 🟢83.1
Matt Olson1BATL3647-1175.3
Bryan WooSPSEA3744-775.7
Bryce Harper1BPHI3853-1574.9
Logan GilbertSPSEA3941-276.1
Chris SaleSPATL40102-62 🔴67.7
Rafael Devers1BSF4126+1579.3
Mason MillerRPSD42276-234 🔴53.0
Edwin DiazRPLAD43328-285 🔴50.2
Brent RookerLFATH4456-1273.7
Hunter GreeneSPCIN4538+776.5
Max FriedSPNYY4696-50 🔴68.4
Brice Turang2BMIL4770-23 🔴71.5
Mookie BettsSSLAD48381-333 🔴48.6
Wyatt LangfordLFTEX498+41 🟢83.9
Logan WebbSPSF5075-25 🔴70.9
Jacob deGromSPTEX51130-79 🔴65.0
Roman AnthonyLFBOS5219+33 🟢80.1
Freddie Freeman1BLAD53163-110 🔴60.7
Andres MunozRPSEA54290-236 🔴52.2
Cole RagansSPKC55131-76 🔴64.8
Cody BellingerLFNYY56132-76 🔴64.7
Josh Naylor1BSEA57108-51 🔴67.5
Freddy PeraltaSPNYM5897-39 🔴68.3
William ContrerasCMIL59162-103 🔴60.7
Jhoan DuranRPPHI60263-203 🔴53.7
Jackson MerrillCFSD6155+673.9
Geraldo PerdomoSSARI6290-28 🔴69.0
Austin Riley3BATL6380-1770.4
Riley GreeneLFDET6461+372.4
Cade SmithRPCLE65253-188 🔴54.4
Joe RyanSPMIN6685-1969.8
Jarren DuranLFBOS6742+25 🟢76.1
CJ AbramsSSWSH68100-32 🔴68.1
George KirbySPSEA6977-870.9
Ben RiceCNYY7030+40 🟢78.4
Shea LangeliersnullATH7160+1172.4
Maikel Garcia2BKC7278-670.6
Dylan CeaseSPTOR7369+471.6
Byron BuxtonCFMIN7435+39 🟢77.3
George SpringerLFTOR7550+25 🟢74.9
Hunter GoodmanCCOL76114-38 🔴67.0
Jesus LuzardoSPPHI7736+41 🟢77.0
Kyle BradishSPBAL78251-173 🔴54.5
Framber ValdezSPDET79209-130 🔴57.6
Bo BichetteSSNYM80109-29 🔴67.2
Aroldis ChapmanRPBOS81557-476 🔴44.7
Vinnie Pasquantino1BKC8298-1668.2
Blake SnellSPLAD83303-220 🔴51.2
David BednarRPNYY84352-268 🔴49.4
Tyler Soderstrom1BATH8557+28 🟢73.3
Randy ArozarenaLFSEA8645+41 🟢75.4
Josh HaderRPHOU87410-323 🔴47.5
Nick PivettaSPSD88222-134 🔴56.8
Seiya SuzukiLFCHC8940+49 🟢76.2
Corey SeagerSSTEX9146+45 🟢75.3
Oneil CruzCFPIT9218+74 🟢80.9
Devin WilliamsRPNYM93439-346 🔴46.8
Nico Hoerner2BCHC94292-198 🔴51.9
Eugenio Suarez3BCIN9595068.5
Jeremy PenaSSHOU9689+769.2
Alex Bregman3BCHC97192-95 🔴58.6
Jose Altuve2BHOU98670-572 🔴42.7
Will SmithnullLAD9964+35 🟢72.2
Christian YelichLFMIL100173-73 🔴59.9
Eury PerezSPMIA10184+1769.8
Salvador PerezCKC10274+28 🟢71.0
Michael Harris IICFATL103118-1566.3
Nolan McLeanSPNYM104211-107 🔴57.6
Spencer StriderSPATL105277-172 🔴52.9
Kevin GausmanSPTOR106220-114 🔴56.9
Sonny GraySPBOS107233-126 🔴55.7
Michael Busch1BCHC10827+81 🟢78.9
Drake BaldwinnullATL10934+75 🟢77.4
Raisel IglesiasRPATL110731-621 🔴41.8
Tyler GlasnowSPLAD111240-129 🔴55.3
Trevor StorySSBOS112183-71 🔴59.4
Agustin RamirezCMIA113113067.1
Carlos EstevezRPKC1141073-959 🔴37.7
Kyle StowersLFMIA11532+83 🟢78.3
Brandon WoodruffSPMIL116204-88 🔴57.9
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMIL117195-78 🔴58.5
Teoscar HernandezLFLAD118158-40 🔴61.2
Chase BurnsSPCIN119278-159 🔴52.9
Willy AdamesSSSF120103+1767.7
Ryan HelsleyRPBAL121742-621 🔴41.7
Jordan Westburg2BBAL122215-93 🔴57.4
Taylor WardLFBAL12376+47 🟢70.9
Luis Robert Jr.CFNYM124107+1767.5
Yandy Diaz1BTB125148-23 🔴61.9
Luke Keaschall2BMIN126138-1262.6
Jo AdellCFLAA12739+88 🟢76.3
Trey YesavageSPTOR128216-88 🔴57.3
Cam SchlittlerSPNYY129274-145 🔴53.0
Jakob MarseeLFMIA13072+58 🟢71.3
Brandon NimmoLFTEX131135-463.8
Lawrence ButlerCFATH132122+1065.8
Zack WheelerSPPHI13381+52 🟢70.3
Jeff HoffmanRPTOR134877-743 🔴39.9
Andy PagesLFLAD135152-1761.5
Trevor MegillRPMIL136510-374 🔴45.5
Spencer SchwellenbachSPATL137106+31 🟢67.7
Nick LodoloSPCIN138116+22 🟢66.6
Ozzie Albies2BATL139421-282 🔴47.4
Michael KingSPSD140435-295 🔴46.9
Nathan EovaldiSPTEX141127+1465.1
Luis CastilloSPSEA142293-151 🔴51.9
Emilio PaganRPCIN143708-565 🔴42.3
Yainer DiazCHOU144193-49 🔴58.5
Ryan PepiotSPTB145345-200 🔴49.8
Daniel PalenciaRPCHC146342-196 🔴49.8
Adley RutschmannullBAL147145+262.2
Matt Chapman3BSF14862+86 🟢72.4
Emmet SheehanSPLAD149164-1560.7
Pete FairbanksRPMIA150668-518 🔴42.8
Noelvi Marte3BCIN151154-361.4
Gavin WilliamsSPCLE152306-154 🔴51.1
Jackson Holliday2BBAL153252-99 🔴54.4
Dansby SwansonSSCHC15483+71 🟢69.9
MacKenzie GoreSPTEX155169-1460.5
Kenley JansenRPDET1561360-1204 🔴32.9
Ian HappLFCHC157119+38 🟢66.3
Steven KwanLFCLE158375-217 🔴48.8
Brandon Lowe2BPIT159105+54 🟢67.7
Trevor RogersSPBAL16051+109 🟢74.9
Ceddanne Rafaela2BBOS161147+1462.1
Robbie RaySPSF162324-162 🔴50.3
Sandy AlcantaraSPMIA163546-383 🔴44.8
Jacob WilsonSSATH164528-364 🔴45.2
Ivan HerreraCSTL16549+116 🟢75.0
Bubba ChandlerSPPIT166185-1959.1
Chandler SimpsonLFTB167351-184 🔴49.4
Drew RasmussenSPTB168179-1159.5
Isaac Paredes3BHOU169175-659.7
Jurickson ProfarLFATL170165+560.6
Ranger SuarezSPBOS171167+460.6
Willson Contreras1BBOS172129+43 🟢65.0
Xavier Edwards2BMIA173337-164 🔴49.9
Tatsuya ImaiSPHOU1741509-1335 🔴28.8
Mike TroutCFLAA175126+49 🟢65.1
Marcus Semien2BNYM176325-149 🔴50.3
Shota ImanagaSPCHC177907-730 🔴39.4
Alejandro KirknullTOR178140+38 🟢62.4
Tanner BibeeSPCLE179241-62 🔴55.1
Colson Montgomery3BCWS18031+149 🟢78.4
Bryan ReynoldsLFPIT181134+47 🟢64.1
Spencer Torkelson1BDET18266+116 🟢72.0
Bryson Stott2BPHI183205-22 🔴57.9
Christian Walker1BHOU184218-34 🔴57.1
Brenton DoyleCFCOL185157+28 🟢61.2
Kazuma Okamoto1BTOR186766-580 🔴41.3
Alec Burleson1BSTL187117+70 🟢66.5
Carlos RodonSPNYY188341-153 🔴49.8
Munetaka Murakami1BCWS189517-328 🔴45.4
Andrew AbbottSPCIN190203-1358.0
Jonathan Aranda1BTB19124+167 🟢79.8
Dylan CrewsCFWSH19294+98 🟢68.6
Dennis SantanaRPPIT193566-373 🔴44.5
Cade HortonSPCHC194184+1059.2
Gerrit ColeSPNYY195314-119 🔴50.7
Shane BieberSPTOR196587-391 🔴44.3
Kris BubicSPKC197150+47 🟢61.7
Abner UribeRPMIL198243-45 🔴54.8
Matthew BoydSPCHC199350-151 🔴49.4
Edward CabreraSPCHC200166+34 🟢60.6
Robert SuarezRPATL201618-417 🔴43.7
Aaron NolaSPPHI202482-280 🔴46.0
Royce Lewis3BMIN203196+758.5
Addison Barger3BTOR204104+100 🟢67.7
Max Muncy3BLAD205374-169 🔴48.8
Ryan WalkerRPSF206616-410 🔴43.7
Daulton VarshoLFTOR207120+87 🟢66.2
Gabriel MorenonullARI208202+658.1
Jorge Polanco2BNYM209123+86 🟢65.8
Gleyber Torres2BDET210153+57 🟢61.5
Sal FrelickLFMIL211414-203 🔴47.5
Roki SasakiSPLAD212563-351 🔴44.6
Merrill KellySPARI213773-560 🔴41.3
Shane BazSPBAL214232-1855.9
Jack FlahertySPDET215256-41 🔴54.2
Giancarlo StantonLFNYY216111+105 🟢67.1
Zac GallenSPARI217676-459 🔴42.7
Sal Stewart1BCIN218149+69 🟢61.9
Kyle TeelnullCWS219190+29 🟢58.8
Francisco AlvareznullNYM22165+156 🟢72.1
Heliot RamosLFSF222146+76 🟢62.1
Daylen LileLFWSH223171+52 🟢60.2
Matt McLain2BCIN224282-58 🔴52.5
Trent GrishamCFNYY22552+173 🟢74.9
J.T. RealmutonullPHI226454-228 🔴46.4
Jose Caballero2BNYY227601-374 🔴44.0
Ezequiel TovarSSCOL228139+89 🟢62.5
Wilyer AbreuLFBOS22971+158 🟢71.5
Shane McClanahanSPTB2301340-1110 🔴33.4
Adolis GarciaRFPHI231170+61 🟢60.3
Joe MusgroveSPSD2321007-775 🔴38.4
Samuel BasallonullBAL233194+39 🟢58.5
Spencer Steer1BCIN234358-124 🔴49.2
Carter JensennullKC235133+102 🟢64.4
Ramon LaureanoLFSD23688+148 🟢69.4
Kerry CarpenterLFDET237125+112 🟢65.3
Austin WellsnullNYY238206+32 🟢57.9
Xander BogaertsSSSD239244-554.8
Brendan Donovan2BSEA240189+51 🟢58.8
Noah CameronSPKC242519-277 🔴45.4
Otto Lopez2BMIA243212+31 🟢57.6
Bryce MillerSPSEA244494-250 🔴45.8
Jac Caglianone1BKC245201+44 🟢58.1
Alec Bohm1BPHI246323-77 🔴50.3
Luis Arraez1BSF247538-291 🔴45.0
Luis Garcia2BWSH2481408-1160 🔴31.7
Kyle Manzardo1BCLE249124+125 🟢65.4
Colton CowserLFBAL250110+140 🟢67.1
Carlos Correa3BHOU251235+1655.5
Quinn PriesterSPMIL252239+1355.4
Connelly EarlySPBOS253470-217 🔴46.1
Caleb Durbin2BBOS254400-146 🔴48.0
Jack LeiterSPTEX255143+112 🟢62.2
Logan O'HoppenullLAA256226+30 🟢56.6
Dillon DinglernullDET257168+89 🟢60.5
Griffin JaxRPTB258383-125 🔴48.6
Casey MizeSPDET259191+68 🟢58.6
Tyler StephensonnullCIN26093+167 🟢68.6
Marcell OzunaDHPIT261137+124 🟢63.5
Ryne NelsonSPARI262101+161 🟢68.0
Ryan O'Hearn1BPIT263266-353.5
Ernie Clement1BTOR264833-569 🔴40.3
Matt Shaw3BCHC265392-127 🔴48.4
Marcelo Mayer2BBOS266224+42 🟢56.7
Bryan AbreuRPHOU267298-31 🔴51.4
Robert GarciaRPTEX268659-391 🔴42.9
Kodai SengaSPNYM269854-585 🔴40.1
Edwin UcetaRPTB270456-186 🔴46.3
Will VestRPDET271396-125 🔴48.2
Seranthony DominguezRPCWS272596-324 🔴44.1
Ryan JeffersCMIN273344-71 🔴49.8
Jasson DominguezLFNYY274295-21 🔴51.6
Anthony SantanderLFTOR2751145-870 🔴37.0
Logan HendersonSPMIL276385-109 🔴48.5
Hurston WaldrepSPATL277477-200 🔴46.0
Shane SmithSPCWS278207+71 🟢57.8
Chase DeLauterCFCLE2791163-884 🔴36.8
Mark Vientos3BNYM281142+139 🟢62.3
TJ FriedlLFCIN282620-338 🔴43.6
Ian SeymourSPTB283541-258 🔴45.0
Jake Burger1BTEX284136+148 🟢63.6
Evan CarterLFTEX285188+97 🟢58.9
Bailey OberSPMIN286836-550 🔴40.3
Jung Hoo LeeCFSF287365-78 🔴49.0
Tommy Edman2BLAD288527-239 🔴45.3
Nolan Arenado3BARI2891226-937 🔴35.6
Andrew Vaughn1BMIL29054+236 🟢74.2
Clay HolmesSPNYM2911146-855 🔴37.0
Jordan BeckLFCOL292181+111 🟢59.4
Masyn WinnSSSTL293313-20 🔴50.8
Colt Keith1BDET294180+114 🟢59.4
Chris BassittSPBAL295944-649 🔴39.0
Mickey MoniakLFCOL29673+223 🟢71.2
Brady SingerSPCIN297452-155 🔴46.4
Grayson RodriguezSPLAA298159+139 🟢61.1
Luis GilSPNYY299818-519 🔴40.6
Cody PonceSPTOR3001374-1074 🔴32.5
Andres Gimenez2BTOR301356-55 🔴49.3
Brayan BelloSPBOS302624-322 🔴43.5
David PetersonSPNYM303531-228 🔴45.2
Jeremiah EstradaRPSD304299+551.4
Joey CantilloSPCLE305272+33 🟢53.0

*Data sourced from FantasyPros (NFBC, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*