The full weekly ADP vs Model breakdown. Our model ranks every player using Statcast data (xwOBA, barrel rate, exit velo, bat speed) combined with age curves and opportunity scoring. Here's where the model disagrees with the market.

🟢 Top 15 Buy-Lows

Players the market is undervaluing the most vs our model.

1.Jake Bauers(MIL, 1B)

ADP: 558 → Model: #60 — Gap: +498

Score: 73.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 71.1

2.Yoan Moncada(LAA, 3B)

ADP: 591 → Model: #123 — Gap: +468

Score: 67.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 61.6

3.Davis Schneider(TOR, 2B)

ADP: 538 → Model: #91 — Gap: +447

Score: 70.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.4

4.Rob Refsnyder(SEA, LF)

ADP: 544 → Model: #153 — Gap: +391

Score: 63.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.4

5.Aaron Ashby(MIL, RP)

ADP: 583 → Model: #220 — Gap: +363

Score: 58.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 75.5

6.Kody Clemens(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 435 → Model: #103 — Gap: +332

Score: 68.9 · 30-Day Pulse: 62.8

7.Romy Gonzalez(BOS, 1B)

ADP: 420 → Model: #101 — Gap: +319

Score: 69.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.4

8.Gabe Speier(SEA, RP)

ADP: 472 → Model: #156 — Gap: +316

Score: 63.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 89.4

9.Josh Bell(MIN, 1B)

ADP: 387 → Model: #80 — Gap: +307

Score: 71.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 68.0

10.Dominic Canzone(SEA, LF)

ADP: 371 → Model: #68 — Gap: +303

Score: 72.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 67.0

11.Ronny Henriquez(MIA, RP)

ADP: 489 → Model: #186 — Gap: +303

Score: 61.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 79.8

12.Zac Veen(COL, LF)

ADP: 582 → Model: #307 — Gap: +275

Score: 53.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 2.0

13.Zach Cole(HOU, LF)

ADP: 495 → Model: #225 — Gap: +270

Score: 58.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 71.0

14.Matt Wallner(MIN, LF)

ADP: 358 → Model: #90 — Gap: +268

Score: 70.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 63.5

15.Tyler O'Neill(BAL, LF)

ADP: 367 → Model: #102 — Gap: +265

Score: 69.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 65.5

🔴 Top 15 Sell-Highs

Players being drafted much higher than our model suggests they should be.

1.Chris Bassitt(BAL, SP)

ADP: 322 → Model: #1558 — Gap: -1236

Score: 18.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 24.2

2.Joe Musgrove(SD, SP)

ADP: 238 → Model: #1371 — Gap: -1133

Score: 26.3 · 30-Day Pulse: 35.1

3.Reynaldo Lopez(ATL, SP)

ADP: 395 → Model: #1492 — Gap: -1097

Score: 22.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 22.5

4.Zack Littell(null, null)

ADP: 393 → Model: #1489 — Gap: -1096

Score: 22.6 · 30-Day Pulse: 18.7

5.Justin Verlander(DET, SP)

ADP: 368 → Model: #1450 — Gap: -1082

Score: 24.0 · 30-Day Pulse: 37.2

6.Zac Gallen(ARI, SP)

ADP: 226 → Model: #1305 — Gap: -1079

Score: 28.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 31.8

7.Kirby Yates(LAA, RP)

ADP: 318 → Model: #1382 — Gap: -1064

Score: 26.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 35.2

8.Nick Martinez(TB, SP)

ADP: 455 → Model: #1516 — Gap: -1061

Score: 21.4 · 30-Day Pulse: 28.4

9.Lucas Giolito(null, null)

ADP: 364 → Model: #1421 — Gap: -1057

Score: 25.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 27.4

10.Justin Steele(CHC, SP)

ADP: 338 → Model: #1342 — Gap: -1004

Score: 27.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 25.4

11.Kenley Jansen(DET, RP)

ADP: 154 → Model: #1151 — Gap: -997

Score: 31.5 · 30-Day Pulse: 44.5

12.Seth Lugo(KC, SP)

ADP: 316 → Model: #1304 — Gap: -988

Score: 28.1 · 30-Day Pulse: 16.8

13.Luis Garcia(WSH, 2B)

ADP: 244 → Model: #1220 — Gap: -976

Score: 30.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 44.9

14.Luis Gil(NYY, SP)

ADP: 284 → Model: #1228 — Gap: -944

Score: 29.8 · 30-Day Pulse: 20.5

15.Zach Eflin(BAL, SP)

ADP: 378 → Model: #1300 — Gap: -922

Score: 28.2 · 30-Day Pulse: 22.7

📊 Full ADP vs Model Comparison

Complete breakdown of the top 300 ADP players matched against our model rankings.

PlayerPosTeamADPModelGapScore
Shohei OhtaniSPLAD15-485.4
Aaron JudgeLFNYY222-20 🔴81.2
Bobby Witt Jr.SSKC44086.7
Juan SotoLFNYM51+490.0
Jose Ramirez3BCLE672-66 🔴71.8
Tarik SkubalSPDET711-482.6
Ronald Acuna Jr.RFATL814-682.0
Corbin CarrollCFARI92+789.7
Elly De La CruzSSCIN1027-1779.8
Paul SkenesSPPIT116+584.6
Julio RodriguezCFSEA1217-581.8
Garrett CrochetSPBOS1316-381.8
Fernando Tatis Jr.RFSD148+683.8
Kyle TuckerRFLAD1532-1779.2
Cal RaleighCSEA1615+181.9
Gunnar HendersonSSBAL1725-880.0
Junior Caminero3BTB1813+582.2
Francisco LindorSSNYM1967-48 🔴72.4
Nick Kurtz1BATH2010+1082.8
Kyle SchwarberLFPHI2126-579.9
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1BTOR2229-779.5
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2BNYY2324-180.2
Jackson ChourioLFMIL2461-37 🔴73.0
Yoshinobu YamamotoSPLAD2547-22 🔴75.3
Pete Alonso1BBAL2636-1077.8
Ketel Marte2BARI2753-26 🔴74.5
Trea TurnerSSPHI28172-144 🔴62.2
Cristopher SanchezSPPHI2939-1076.8
Manny Machado3BSD3073-43 🔴71.7
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCFCHC3118+1381.8
James WoodLFWSH323+29 🟢86.8
Hunter BrownSPHOU3344-1176.0
Yordan AlvarezLFHOU34170-136 🔴62.4
Zach NetoSSLAA3512+23 🟢82.3
Bryan WooSPSEA3645-975.7
Chris SaleSPATL37122-85 🔴67.1
Bryce Harper1BPHI3851-1374.9
Logan GilbertSPSEA3949-1075.1
Rafael Devers1BSF4031+979.3
Matt Olson1BATL4148-775.3
Edwin DiazRPLAD42167-125 🔴62.6
Mason MillerRPSD43133-90 🔴65.6
Mookie BettsSSLAD44438-394 🔴48.6
Max FriedSPNYY45111-66 🔴68.4
Brent RookerLFATH4656-1073.7
Brice Turang2BMIL4775-28 🔴71.5
Hunter GreeneSPCIN4837+1177.4
Jacob deGromSPTEX49143-94 🔴64.7
Logan WebbSPSF5082-32 🔴70.9
Wyatt LangfordLFTEX517+44 🟢84.5
Roman AnthonyLFBOS5223+29 🟢80.3
Freddie Freeman1BLAD53189-136 🔴60.7
Andres MunozRPSEA54151-97 🔴64.2
Cole RagansSPKC55160-105 🔴63.6
Cody BellingerLFNYY56141-85 🔴64.7
William ContrerasCMIL57188-131 🔴60.7
Josh Naylor1BSEA58117-59 🔴67.6
Jhoan DuranRPPHI59140-81 🔴64.8
Freddy PeraltaSPNYM60104-44 🔴68.8
Cade SmithRPCLE61124-63 🔴67.0
Riley GreeneLFDET6266-472.4
Geraldo PerdomoSSARI6399-36 🔴69.3
Shea LangeliersnullATH6455+973.8
Ben RiceCNYY6519+46 🟢81.8
Jarren DuranLFBOS6643+23 🟢76.1
Joe RyanSPMIN67107-40 🔴68.6
Austin Riley3BATL68195-127 🔴60.2
CJ AbramsSSWSH69115-46 🔴68.1
Jackson MerrillCFSD7089-1970.6
Maikel Garcia2BKC7188-1770.6
Dylan CeaseSPTOR7279-771.2
George KirbySPSEA73129-56 🔴66.6
Blake SnellSPLAD74354-280 🔴51.3
Byron BuxtonCFMIN7528+47 🟢79.6
George SpringerLFTOR7650+26 🟢74.9
Hunter GoodmanCCOL7784-770.8
Jesus LuzardoSPPHI7838+40 🟢77.0
Josh HaderRPHOU79201-122 🔴59.5
Bo BichetteSSNYM80121-41 🔴67.2
Nick PivettaSPSD81248-167 🔴56.8
Kyle BradishSPBAL82331-249 🔴52.2
Framber ValdezSPDET83956-873 🔴35.5
Aroldis ChapmanRPBOS84205-121 🔴59.3
David BednarRPNYY85175-90 🔴62.0
Vinnie Pasquantino1BKC86109-23 🔴68.5
Tyler Soderstrom1BATH8735+52 🟢78.0
Randy ArozarenaLFSEA8846+42 🟢75.4
Seiya SuzukiLFCHC8942+47 🟢76.2
Corey SeagerSSTEX9059+31 🟢73.1
Devin WilliamsRPNYM91273-182 🔴55.4
Oneil CruzCFPIT929+83 🟢83.5
Nico Hoerner2BCHC93336-243 🔴51.9
Jeremy PenaSSHOU95113-1868.2
Alex Bregman3BCHC96264-168 🔴56.1
Eugenio Suarez3BCIN97106-968.7
Spencer StriderSPATL98491-393 🔴46.7
Jose Altuve2BHOU99634-535 🔴42.7
Salvador PerezCKC10081+1971.0
Michael Harris IICFATL10198+369.5
Christian YelichLFMIL102158-56 🔴63.6
Eury PerezSPMIA10392+1170.3
Nolan McLeanSPNYM104285-181 🔴54.7
Sonny GraySPBOS105269-164 🔴55.7
Raisel IglesiasRPATL106448-342 🔴48.4
Kevin GausmanSPTOR107245-138 🔴56.9
Drake BaldwinnullATL10840+68 🟢76.8
Agustin RamirezCMIA10962+47 🟢72.7
Michael Busch1BCHC11020+90 🟢81.8
Trevor StorySSBOS111146-35 🔴64.4
Tyler GlasnowSPLAD112199-87 🔴59.8
Will SmithnullLAD11387+26 🟢70.7
Carlos EstevezRPKC114896-782 🔴36.8
Kyle StowersLFMIA11541+74 🟢76.7
Chase BurnsSPCIN116241-125 🔴57.0
Brandon WoodruffSPMIL117298-181 🔴54.0
Spencer SchwellenbachSPATL11876+42 🟢71.5
Pablo LopezSPMIN119452-333 🔴48.2
Willy AdamesSSSF120116+467.7
Jordan Westburg2BBAL121191-70 🔴60.6
Brandon NimmoLFTEX122157-35 🔴63.8
Ryan HelsleyRPBAL123689-566 🔴41.4
Teoscar HernandezLFLAD124185-61 🔴61.1
Luke Keaschall2BMIN125322-197 🔴52.5
Taylor WardLFBAL12683+43 🟢70.9
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMIL127216-89 🔴58.7
Cam SchlittlerSPNYY128421-293 🔴49.2
Jo AdellCFLAA12921+108 🟢81.2
Trey YesavageSPTOR130496-366 🔴46.6
Luis Robert Jr.CFNYM131131065.8
Jakob MarseeLFMIA13263+69 🟢72.7
Trevor MegillRPMIL133328-195 🔴52.3
Matt Chapman3BSF13485+49 🟢70.8
Zack WheelerSPPHI13593+42 🟢70.3
Jeff HoffmanRPTOR136692-556 🔴41.3
Lawrence ButlerCFATH137100+37 🟢69.3
Ozzie Albies2BATL138457-319 🔴48.0
Jackson Holliday2BBAL139145-664.6
Nick LodoloSPCIN140126+1466.9
Michael KingSPSD1411027-886 🔴34.1
Yandy Diaz1BTB142177-35 🔴61.9
Emilio PaganRPCIN143453-310 🔴48.2
Yainer DiazCHOU144181-37 🔴61.4
Luis CastilloSPSEA145339-194 🔴51.9
Andy PagesLFLAD146147-164.3
Nathan EovaldiSPTEX147176-29 🔴62.0
Pete FairbanksRPMIA148465-317 🔴47.5
Noelvi Marte3BCIN149219-70 🔴58.4
Emmet SheehanSPLAD150165-1562.8
Ryan PepiotSPTB151422-271 🔴49.2
Daniel PalenciaRPCHC152200-48 🔴59.7
Dansby SwansonSSCHC15371+82 🟢71.9
Kenley JansenRPDET1541151-997 🔴31.5
Adley RutschmannullBAL155258-103 🔴56.2
Gavin WilliamsSPCLE156382-226 🔴50.3
Ian HappLFCHC157130+27 🟢66.3
Steven KwanLFCLE158430-272 🔴48.8
Trevor RogersSPBAL15974+85 🟢71.6
Robbie RaySPSF160381-221 🔴50.3
MacKenzie GoreSPTEX161194-33 🔴60.2
Brandon Lowe2BPIT162138+24 🟢65.0
Bubba ChandlerSPPIT163244-81 🔴56.9
Ceddanne Rafaela2BBOS164149+1564.3
Chandler SimpsonLFTB165342-177 🔴51.7
Sandy AlcantaraSPMIA166558-392 🔴44.8
Isaac Paredes3BHOU167206-39 🔴59.1
Ivan HerreraCSTL16858+110 🟢73.1
Tanner BibeeSPCLE169277-108 🔴55.1
Jurickson ProfarLFATL170289-119 🔴54.5
Drew RasmussenSPTB171257-86 🔴56.3
Ranger SuarezSPBOS172207-35 🔴59.0
Jacob WilsonSSATH173503-330 🔴46.5
Xavier Edwards2BMIA174387-213 🔴50.2
Shane BieberSPTOR1751083-908 🔴33.2
Marcus Semien2BNYM177423-246 🔴49.1
Bryan ReynoldsLFPIT178152+26 🟢64.1
Mike TroutCFLAA17986+93 🟢70.7
Alec Burleson1BSTL180127+53 🟢66.7
Shota ImanagaSPCHC181819-638 🔴38.5
Christian Walker1BHOU182212-30 🔴58.9
Spencer Torkelson1BDET18369+114 🟢72.0
Bryson Stott2BPHI184211-27 🔴58.9
Brenton DoyleCFCOL185164+21 🟢62.8
Alejandro KirknullTOR186142+44 🟢64.7
Robert SuarezRPATL187360-173 🔴51.1
Dylan CrewsCFWSH189178+1161.7
Willson Contreras1BBOS19095+95 🟢69.7
Dennis SantanaRPPIT191445-254 🔴48.4
Andrew AbbottSPCIN192227-35 🔴57.9
Abner UribeRPMIL193150+43 🟢64.3
Cade HortonSPCHC194247-53 🔴56.8
Addison Barger3BTOR19597+98 🟢69.6
Jack FlahertySPDET196300-104 🔴54.0
Jonathan Aranda1BTB19833+165 🟢78.9
Matthew BoydSPCHC199397-198 🔴50.0
Gerrit ColeSPNYY200943-743 🔴35.8
Aaron NolaSPPHI201901-700 🔴36.8
Kris BubicSPKC202154+48 🟢63.9
Ryan WalkerRPSF203518-315 🔴45.9
Colson Montgomery3BCWS20430+174 🟢79.5
Max Muncy3BLAD205120+85 🟢67.3
Edward CabreraSPCHC206190+1660.6
Royce Lewis3BMIN207337-130 🔴51.9
Jorge Polanco2BNYM208114+94 🟢68.1
Sal FrelickLFMIL209375-166 🔴50.5
Carlos RodonSPNYY210361-151 🔴51.1
Samuel BasallonullBAL211418-207 🔴49.3
Daulton VarshoLFTOR212112+100 🟢68.2
Gleyber Torres2BDET213179+34 🟢61.5
Gabriel MorenonullARI214288-74 🔴54.5
Kyle TeelnullCWS215290-75 🔴54.4
Roki SasakiSPLAD2161086-870 🔴33.1
J.T. RealmutonullPHI217345-128 🔴51.5
Heliot RamosLFSF218162+56 🟢63.4
Merrill KellySPARI219695-476 🔴41.3
Giancarlo StantonLFNYY22057+163 🟢73.3
Shane BazSPBAL221250-29 🔴56.6
Sal Stewart1BCIN222105+117 🟢68.7
Trent GrishamCFNYY22334+189 🟢78.7
Kerry CarpenterLFDET224125+99 🟢66.9
Daylen LileLFWSH225226-157.9
Zac GallenSPARI2261305-1079 🔴28.1
Matt McLain2BCIN227267-40 🔴56.0
Wilyer AbreuLFBOS22978+151 🟢71.4
Carter JensennullKC23054+176 🟢74.5
Ezequiel TovarSSCOL231254-23 🔴56.4
Spencer Steer1BCIN233315-82 🔴53.4
Ramon LaureanoLFSD23477+157 🟢71.4
Adolis GarciaRFPHI235174+61 🟢62.0
Xander BogaertsSSSD236286-50 🔴54.7
Austin WellsnullNYY237197+40 🟢59.9
Joe MusgroveSPSD2381371-1133 🔴26.3
Noah CameronSPKC239597-358 🔴43.9
Otto Lopez2BMIA240193+47 🟢60.4
Ernie Clement1BTOR241622-381 🔴43.1
Francisco AlvareznullNYM24252+190 🟢74.7
Luis Garcia2BWSH2441220-976 🔴30.2
Jose Caballero2BNYY245565-320 🔴44.7
Alec Bohm1BPHI246407-161 🔴49.6
Connelly EarlySPBOS247260-1356.2
Colton CowserLFBAL248144+104 🟢64.6
Brendan Donovan2BSEA249228+21 🟢57.8
Anthony SantanderLFTOR2501120-870 🔴32.2
Bryce MillerSPSEA251877-626 🔴37.2
Dillon DinglernullDET252132+120 🟢65.7
Kyle Manzardo1BCLE253108+145 🟢68.6
Jung Hoo LeeCFSF254341-87 🔴51.8
Jac Caglianone1BKC255327-72 🔴52.3
Carlos Correa3BHOU256221+35 🟢58.4
Caleb Durbin2BBOS257383-126 🔴50.3
Logan O'HoppenullLAA258210+48 🟢58.9
Marcelo Mayer2BBOS259393-134 🔴50.1
TJ FriedlLFCIN260546-286 🔴45.2
Edwin UcetaRPTB261367-106 🔴50.8
Casey MizeSPDET262218+44 🟢58.5
Luis Arraez1BSF263552-289 🔴45.0
Griffin JaxRPTB264187+77 🟢60.9
Will VestRPDET265261+456.2
Ryan O'Hearn1BPIT266251+1556.5
Ryne NelsonSPARI267118+149 🟢67.3
Colt Keith1BDET268208+60 🟢59.0
Quinn PriesterSPMIL269301-32 🔴53.9
Ryan JeffersCMIN271400-129 🔴49.9
Jack LeiterSPTEX272135+137 🟢65.4
Hurston WaldrepSPATL273517-244 🔴46.0
Jasson DominguezLFNYY274213+61 🟢58.8
Bryan AbreuRPHOU275169+106 🟢62.4
Marcell OzunaDHPIT276168+108 🟢62.4
Matt Shaw3BCHC277316-39 🔴53.1
Seranthony DominguezRPCWS278306-28 🔴53.8
Tommy Edman2BLAD279560-281 🔴44.8
Masyn WinnSSSTL280543-263 🔴45.2
Jake Burger1BTEX281203+78 🟢59.4
Mark Vientos3BNYM282161+121 🟢63.4
Bailey OberSPMIN283790-507 🔴39.0
Luis GilSPNYY2841228-944 🔴29.8
Ian SeymourSPTB285605-320 🔴43.7
Grayson RodriguezSPLAA286499-213 🔴46.6
Andrew Vaughn1BMIL28770+217 🟢72.0
Anthony VolpeSSNYY288163+125 🟢63.1
Kodai SengaSPNYM289817-528 🔴38.5
Logan HendersonSPMIL290473-183 🔴47.2
Andres Gimenez2BTOR291572-281 🔴44.4
Brayan BelloSPBOS292578-286 🔴44.2
Jeremiah EstradaRPSD293202+91 🟢59.5
Ryan WeathersSPNYY294646-352 🔴42.5
Clay HolmesSPNYM295848-553 🔴37.8
Mickey MoniakLFCOL29665+231 🟢72.6
Carson KellynullCHC297320-23 🔴52.7
Brady SingerSPCIN298520-222 🔴45.9
Luke WeaverRPNYM299480-181 🔴47.0
Tyler StephensonnullCIN30096+204 🟢69.6
Sean ManaeaSPNYM301835-534 🔴38.1
Brett Baty2BNYM302184+118 🟢61.1
Robert GarciaRPTEX303600-297 🔴43.9
Jordan BeckLFCOL304155+149 🟢63.8
Miguel Vargas1BCWS305159+146 🟢63.6
Nolan Schanuel1BLAA307346-39 🔴51.5
Jameson TaillonSPCHC308982-674 🔴34.9
Riley O'BrienRPSTL309562-253 🔴44.8
Parker MessickSPCLE310402-92 🔴49.8

*Data sourced from FantasyPros (NFBC, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax aggregate). Model rankings updated daily by DynastySignal.*